Roger Simon has a fun
column about the Ames straw poll, which he argues is a
winnowing process that gives the media an excuse to stop taking
certain candidates seriously. (Simon's piece appears near a front
page story
about a candidate at risk of being winnowed.)
It's possible to do well in Ames and then not flourish in the
caucuses and beyond. But flopping at Ames does say something about
a candidate's viability. If people won't vote for you when they are
basically paid to, you've got problems.