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The Spectacle Blog
Tim Pawlenty says a third-place finish in Ames is fine — as long as the candidates who finish ahead of him aren’t viable.
According to Bloomberg News, Pawlenty said, “”It depends who the other two spots are. How close it is. If the other two, if you’re viewed not, in the long term, credible national candidates, then that’s less significant than if they are.” Who might these less than credible candidates be? “There’s a lot of uniqueness to the straw poll that gives some advantage to candidates like Ron Paul or Michele Bachmann,” Pawlenty told reporters. “But within that, we’re going to do well.”
There are two small problems with Pawlenty’s contention. One is that most observers believe Pawlenty actually has a better ground operation in Iowa than Bachmann, even if the Minnesota congresswoman is currently more popular with potential caucus-goers. Second, the types of straw polls that Paul has traditionally done best at are ones where he can bring his national following along rather than turning out voters in a single state. So it would be somewhat significant if Pawlenty finished behind Bachmann and Paul.
But it does point to a potential plan B for Pawlenty, who had been banking on a strong showing in Iowa to make him the main alternative to Mitt Romney: if Romney is bloodied by a candidate who is perceived as unable to win either the nomination or the general election, Pawlenty can present himself as a viable choice. (This also seems to be Jon Huntsman’s plan A through Z.) Though if Rick Perry does get in, the space for Pawlenty becomes even more constricted.
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More Blog Posts by W. James Antle, III
http://spectator.org/blog/2011/08/08/pawlenty-managing-expectations
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Clint| 8.8.11 @ 3:56PM
"Harris Poll: If Ron Paul Won GOP Nomination, He Would Split Vote With Obama.
TUESDAY, JULY 26, 2011:
Rep. Ron Paul (R-Tex.), an official candidate for the Republican presidential nomination, has performed well in several polls throughout his campaign. In may, Paul took second place in a CNN/WMUR poll of likely Republican voters. In June, Paul won a Republican Leadership Conference straw poll. At the beginning of July, Paul came in first in a Texas GOP poll, conducted by the Azimuth Research Group.
Perhaps the best indication of Paul’s candidacy so far is a Harris poll released today by Harris Interactive. According to the Harris poll, Obama and Paul would split the vote right down the middle if they were to run against each other in 2012.
Between July 11th and 18th, 2011, nearly 2200 adults were surveyed online by Harris Interactive. According to the Harris poll, 50 percent of those surveyed would vote for Paul if he were matched up against Obama and 50 percent would vote for the President."
Occam's Tool| 8.8.11 @ 4:30PM
Pawlenty is going to wipe the plate with Paul. So will Bachmann, as she turns into overdrive.
Clint| 8.8.11 @ 5:45PM
Rasmussen Poll:
Iowa Caucus: Bachmann, Romney and Paul on Top
MONDAY, AUGUST 8, 2011
In the Iowa caucus race for the Republican presidential nomination, five candidates are in double digits, and many voters are open to changing their mind before caucus day arrives.
The first Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Iowa’s Likely Caucus Participants shows that Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann attracts 22% support, while former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney earn 21%. Just slightly behind is Texas Congressman Ron Paul at 16%, followed by Texas Governor Rick Perry at 12% and former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty at 11%.
The Tea Party Rebellion Ramps Up For The 2012 Elections.
Carpe Diem.
Trinacria| 8.8.11 @ 7:51PM
Ah, yes; the signs of bold and fearless leadership that the country needs in these precarious times - "I'd be happy with third place, provided that the people who finish ahead of me suck, in which case the American public will see me as the guy who doesn't suck as much as the candidates that finished ahead of me." Really? So we've now gone from the laughable "Yes we can!" Obama campaign slogan to the bold and audacious Pawlenty Doctrine: "I think I might be able to...uh, as long as the other guys suck."
Between Pawlenty's "managing expectations" and Santorum's whining about being treated unfairly by the media, it's beginning to look like the biggest set of stones in the field belong to Bachman...