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The Spectacle Blog
Peter Orszag is becoming increasingly honest now that he’s no longer the head of the Office of Management and Budget. Here he is on rosy scenarios:
The CBO assumes economic growth will exceed 3 percent per year from 2012 to 2016 before gradually declining to a bit more than 2 percent in 2021. What if, instead, growth remains at 2 percent to 2.5 percent for the next decade? I asked Kogan to recalculate the budget numbers assuming a constant growth rate of 2.25 percent per year, which seems a plausible hard-slog scenario.
He found that the deficit then averages more than 7 percent of GDP. By 2021, it is more than 8.5 percent of GDP and increasing.
Under these modified growth assumptions, the cumulative deficit for the next decade is $13.7 trillion. In other words, the impact from sluggish growth on the budget shortfall over the same period exceeds $2.5 trillion — which is more than the roughly $2 trillion in deficit reduction that may wind up being agreed to as part of a deal to lift the debt ceiling.
Orszag seems to think that the less favorable outlook is the more likely one.
View all comments (7) | Leave a comment
More Blog Posts by Joseph Lawler
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Oldefarte| 7.14.11 @ 2:07PM
Of course it will be less favorable in outlook if this group of domestic terrorists aka Democrats continues to destroy our country. Our only HOPE is for a further political turnover [from that occurring in November of 2010] in the November 2012 elections. We simply cannot afford to wait for 2016, as there will be no country left to rescue at that time!!!!!!!
PattyMor| 7.14.11 @ 2:17PM
One more cycle of rabid Democrat rule, and the U.S. is done. Kaput, no more greatness.
Occam's Tool| 7.14.11 @ 6:09PM
Unfortunately, Our Pres is Vermin T Maggot, Attorney at Law.
There is nothing in his behavior that was not forseeable in 2008. McCain should have gone balls to the wall. He wimped out.
Dixie Pixie| 7.14.11 @ 8:13PM
Just for chuckles and giggles, let us imagine what would happen if the interest rate the Federal Government pays went from the current 0% to a credit card rate of 25%.
Would that not be a quick path to complete privatization as the Federal Government would have to sell off all Federal Assets to the banks to keep the spending machine going?
The look on the Obama's faces as the White House foreclosure notice is read to them would be priceless.
Glein| 7.14.11 @ 11:06PM
What a lying , incompetent boob, who is now sucking off the academic teat!
weddingdress | 7.15.11 @ 4:58AM
Would that not be a quick path to complete privatization as the Federal Government would have to sell off all Federal Assets to the banks to keep the spending machine going?
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