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A Bad Time to Borrow

In a Bloomberg View op-ed, Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff explain why now is a bad time for the government to borrow, even though interest rates are low: 

Several studies of financial crises show that interest rates seldom indicate problems long in advance. In fact, we should probably be particularly concerned today because a growing share of advanced country debt is held by official creditors whose current willingness to forego short-term returns doesn't guarantee there will be a captive audience for debt in perpetuity.

Those who would point to low servicing costs should remember that market interest rates can change like the weather. Debt levels, by contrast, can't be brought down quickly. Even though politicians everywhere like to argue that their country will expand its way out of debt, our historical research suggests that growth alone is rarely enough to achieve that with the debt levels we are experiencing today.

While we expect to see more than one member of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development default or restructure their debt before the European crisis is resolved, that isn't the greatest threat to most advanced economies. The biggest risk is that debt will accumulate until the overhang weighs on growth.

Reinhart and Rogoff authored a study and book establishing a 90 percent level of public debt to GDP as a dangerous threshold. That number is now constantly used on Capitol Hill in discussions about the debt. 

View all comments (6) | Leave a comment

Bill Hussein O'Stalin| 7.14.11 @ 11:43AM

What most of the public is too stupid to realize is that there is a secret tax on their investments and it's called inflation. All inflation comes from the government.

If you have stayed invested in the stock market since 1999 you have actually lost about 27% of your wealth and not "stayed even" as many believe.

That's due to borrowing against your paycheck courtesy of government debt.

The debt is your enemy but all the more so when you come to the realization that's a stealth attack against your wealth.

Essentially, Washington is full of parasites who are really financial terrorists more dangerous to your financial welfare than a thousand Osama Bin Ladens or a hundred Barrack Obamas.

Thank all the big spenders in Washington, Democrats and Republicans. Both parties have emptied your wallet and this little drama is only being played out to scare the public into more political thievery.

Oldefarte| 7.14.11 @ 3:52PM

Extremely true, but I still rightfully argue that Democrats are far more to blame for this than are Republicans. The former gin mill up governmental for welfare purposes [and the receipt of indigent/government benefit receivers' votes in return], while the latter's sins come mostly from wasteful spending upon excessive military hardware. As you state, both are guilty of our financial/economic status currently. The solution lies with the tea partiers and their expansion to include any/all concerned/paticipating citizen-taxpayers to actively hold politicians to account every election for their actions/decisions. Instead of ignoring same and letting them have a political pass, the tea party citizens must vote in replacements immediately when warranted if we are to survive as a nation!!!!!!!!!

Clint| 7.14.11 @ 12:06PM

Obama Is Guilty Of Economic Treason.

" If the debt ceiling is not increased, the Treasury can prioritize interest and debt payment to avoid a default and essentially put the government on a stringent pay-as-you-go basis. Would that involve extreme cuts in government spending? Certainly. But it could be done, if it had to.

Let's remember that the Treasury still rakes in quite a bit of money in revenues — it took in $604 billion (seasonally adjusted) in the third quarter of 2010. In FY 2010 the annual debt service was some $414 billion, working out to an average of about $104 billion per quarter. Although the numbers won't be quite the same going forward, the debt service will soak up only about one-sixth of the incoming revenues."

Handy| 7.14.11 @ 2:21PM

No sensible analyst ever compares debt to income. Assets minus Liabilities equals Owners Equity, afterall. It is the debt to equity ratio that matters. In the case of government, this is the total amount of bonds compared with the actual wealth of the nation, not GDP.

The Public Debt in 1999 was $5.7 Trillion in 1999. The Net Wealth was approximately $27 Trillion. Debt to equity ratio about 25%. These are the last years available, but we can estimate what they are today.

Today the debt stands at $14.3 Trillion and Wealth is only about $29 Trillion. So, debt to equity has grown to roughly 50%.

Net worth has declined by about $8.6 Trllion in less than 11 years. Approximately $3.0 Trillion has been lost since Obama took office.

Mind you, the debt figure is only for the federal government and does not include state, and local liabilities.

Mike 3/505| 7.14.11 @ 3:18PM

How do you reflect future unfunded liabilities?

yisong| 10.29.11 @ 2:12AM

slewing bearing can be widely used in heavy platform vehicle, container cranes, truck crane, high-altitude vehicles, sun-following solar power systems engineering and the new field of energy. http://www.1stbearing.com

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More Blog Posts by Joseph Lawler

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