In a BloombergViewop-ed,
Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff explain why now is a bad time
for the government to borrow, even though interest rates are
low:
Several studies of financial crises show that interest rates
seldom indicate problems long in advance. In fact, we should
probably be particularly concerned today because a growing share of
advanced country debt is held by official creditors whose current
willingness to forego short-term returns doesn't guarantee there
will be a captive audience for debt in perpetuity.
Those who would point to low servicing costs should remember
that market interest rates can change like the weather. Debt
levels, by contrast, can't be brought down quickly. Even though
politicians everywhere like to argue that their country will expand
its way out of debt, our historical research suggests that growth
alone is rarely enough to achieve that with the debt levels we are
experiencing today.
While we expect to see more than one member of the Organization
for Economic Cooperation and Development default or restructure
their debt before the European crisis is resolved, that isn't the
greatest threat to most advanced economies. The biggest risk is
that debt will accumulate until the overhang weighs on growth.
Reinhart and Rogoff authored a study and
book establishing a 90 percent level of public debt to GDP as a
dangerous threshold. That number is now constantly used on Capitol
Hill in discussions about the debt.
What most of the public is too stupid to realize is that there
is a secret tax on their investments and it's called inflation. All
inflation comes from the government.
If you have stayed invested in the stock market since 1999 you
have actually lost about 27% of your wealth and not "stayed even"
as many believe.
That's due to borrowing against your paycheck courtesy of
government debt.
The debt is your enemy but all the more so when you come to the
realization that's a stealth attack against your wealth.
Essentially, Washington is full of parasites who are really
financial terrorists more dangerous to your financial welfare than
a thousand Osama Bin Ladens or a hundred Barrack Obamas.
Thank all the big spenders in Washington, Democrats and
Republicans. Both parties have emptied your wallet and this little
drama is only being played out to scare the public into more
political thievery.
Oldefarte| 7.14.11 @ 3:52PM
Extremely true, but I still rightfully argue that Democrats are
far more to blame for this than are Republicans. The former gin
mill up governmental for welfare purposes [and the receipt of
indigent/government benefit receivers' votes in return], while the
latter's sins come mostly from wasteful spending upon excessive
military hardware. As you state, both are guilty of our
financial/economic status currently. The solution lies with the tea
partiers and their expansion to include any/all
concerned/paticipating citizen-taxpayers to actively hold
politicians to account every election for their actions/decisions.
Instead of ignoring same and letting them have a political pass,
the tea party citizens must vote in replacements immediately when
warranted if we are to survive as a nation!!!!!!!!!
Clint| 7.14.11 @ 12:06PM
Obama Is Guilty Of Economic Treason.
" If the debt ceiling is not increased, the Treasury can
prioritize interest and debt payment to avoid a default and
essentially put the government on a stringent pay-as-you-go basis.
Would that involve extreme cuts in government spending? Certainly.
But it could be done, if it had to.
Let's remember that the Treasury still rakes in quite a bit of
money in revenues — it took in $604 billion (seasonally adjusted)
in the third quarter of 2010. In FY 2010 the annual debt service
was some $414 billion, working out to an average of about $104
billion per quarter. Although the numbers won't be quite the same
going forward, the debt service will soak up only about one-sixth
of the incoming revenues."
Handy| 7.14.11 @ 2:21PM
No sensible analyst ever compares debt to income. Assets minus
Liabilities equals Owners Equity, afterall. It is the debt to
equity ratio that matters. In the case of government, this is the
total amount of bonds compared with the actual wealth of the
nation, not GDP.
The Public Debt in 1999 was $5.7 Trillion in 1999. The Net
Wealth was approximately $27 Trillion. Debt to equity ratio about
25%. These are the last years available, but we can estimate what
they are today.
Today the debt stands at $14.3 Trillion and Wealth is only about
$29 Trillion. So, debt to equity has grown to roughly 50%.
Net worth has declined by about $8.6 Trllion in less than 11
years. Approximately $3.0 Trillion has been lost since Obama took
office.
Mind you, the debt figure is only for the federal government and
does not include state, and local liabilities.
Mike 3/505| 7.14.11 @ 3:18PM
How do you reflect future unfunded liabilities?
yisong| 10.29.11 @ 2:12AM
slewing bearing can be widely used in heavy platform vehicle,
container cranes, truck crane, high-altitude vehicles,
sun-following solar power systems engineering and the new field of
energy. http://www.1stbearing.com
Bill Hussein O'Stalin| 7.14.11 @ 11:43AM
What most of the public is too stupid to realize is that there is a secret tax on their investments and it's called inflation. All inflation comes from the government.
If you have stayed invested in the stock market since 1999 you have actually lost about 27% of your wealth and not "stayed even" as many believe.
That's due to borrowing against your paycheck courtesy of government debt.
The debt is your enemy but all the more so when you come to the realization that's a stealth attack against your wealth.
Essentially, Washington is full of parasites who are really financial terrorists more dangerous to your financial welfare than a thousand Osama Bin Ladens or a hundred Barrack Obamas.
Thank all the big spenders in Washington, Democrats and Republicans. Both parties have emptied your wallet and this little drama is only being played out to scare the public into more political thievery.
Oldefarte| 7.14.11 @ 3:52PM
Extremely true, but I still rightfully argue that Democrats are far more to blame for this than are Republicans. The former gin mill up governmental for welfare purposes [and the receipt of indigent/government benefit receivers' votes in return], while the latter's sins come mostly from wasteful spending upon excessive military hardware. As you state, both are guilty of our financial/economic status currently. The solution lies with the tea partiers and their expansion to include any/all concerned/paticipating citizen-taxpayers to actively hold politicians to account every election for their actions/decisions. Instead of ignoring same and letting them have a political pass, the tea party citizens must vote in replacements immediately when warranted if we are to survive as a nation!!!!!!!!!
Clint| 7.14.11 @ 12:06PM
Obama Is Guilty Of Economic Treason.
" If the debt ceiling is not increased, the Treasury can prioritize interest and debt payment to avoid a default and essentially put the government on a stringent pay-as-you-go basis. Would that involve extreme cuts in government spending? Certainly. But it could be done, if it had to.
Let's remember that the Treasury still rakes in quite a bit of money in revenues — it took in $604 billion (seasonally adjusted) in the third quarter of 2010. In FY 2010 the annual debt service was some $414 billion, working out to an average of about $104 billion per quarter. Although the numbers won't be quite the same going forward, the debt service will soak up only about one-sixth of the incoming revenues."
Handy| 7.14.11 @ 2:21PM
No sensible analyst ever compares debt to income. Assets minus Liabilities equals Owners Equity, afterall. It is the debt to equity ratio that matters. In the case of government, this is the total amount of bonds compared with the actual wealth of the nation, not GDP.
The Public Debt in 1999 was $5.7 Trillion in 1999. The Net Wealth was approximately $27 Trillion. Debt to equity ratio about 25%. These are the last years available, but we can estimate what they are today.
Today the debt stands at $14.3 Trillion and Wealth is only about $29 Trillion. So, debt to equity has grown to roughly 50%.
Net worth has declined by about $8.6 Trllion in less than 11 years. Approximately $3.0 Trillion has been lost since Obama took office.
Mind you, the debt figure is only for the federal government and does not include state, and local liabilities.
Mike 3/505| 7.14.11 @ 3:18PM
How do you reflect future unfunded liabilities?
yisong| 10.29.11 @ 2:12AM
slewing bearing can be widely used in heavy platform vehicle, container cranes, truck crane, high-altitude vehicles, sun-following solar power systems engineering and the new field of energy. http://www.1stbearing.com