In today's New York Times, Ross Douthat
troubles himself to understand why the Republicans are avoiding
giant tax increases in the debt ceiling negotiations (if only the
same could be said for David
Brooks).
Douthat mentions, among other important points, that it will
only become harder for Republicans to reform federal spending as
time passes:
The long-term deck is stacked in favor of tax
increases. For decades, the tug-of-war between left
and right has kept government's share of the economy nearly
constant, around 19 percent of G.D.P. But in what you might call
the revenge of Lyndon Johnson, the ballooning cost of Medicare is
poised to tilt the debate decisively toward liberalism.
For now, tax increases and entitlement cuts are equally
unpopular. But with every passing year, the constituency for
letting Medicare grow as scheduled gets bigger and bigger, and the
clout of working-age taxpayers diminishes. Already, even a
relatively radical proposal like Paul Ryan's budget seems compelled
to exempt current retirees from its Medicare reforms. Imagine how
the landscape will look in a decade.
Instead of attacking Obama the Republicans should take it upon
themselves to educate the public. They could start with
sophisticated charts like this that indicate government spending
has largely been a waste of diminishing returns.
It would be fairly easy to to show how government spending is
destroying the wealth of everyone. In hindsight, some will actually
like that.
The federal government takes in roughly 55 percent of ongoing
outlays. For those of us who believe that a 45 percent cut in the
Federal budget would be a good start, this is the perfect scenario.
The effect of refusing to increase the debt limit would be the same
as a balanced budget "amendment" or simply balancing the budget to
current federal revenues. The debt could be serviced and the
military could be paid. All other expenses, including SS,
Medicare,
Medicaid, NPR, the Departments of "Education" and "Energy" etc, the
"United Nations", aid to countries that hate us, "scholarships" etc
would need to be assessed and priorities. Some would and should be
eliminated. Some would be paid at dramatically reduced levels. Some
could be paid at nearly the current levels.
Catastrophe would be avoided but the welfare state would be
forced to shrink. The Republicans could accomplish the greatest
reduction in the Welfare State in history and
yet...............
They will not do it. You can be assured that they will not do it
by the simple fact that they have not even tried to educate the
public. Sophisticated charts like those referenced above (and they
ARE interesting, Bill) are not necessary or within the
understanding of most citizens. The Republican "leadership" will
not even try. They do not want to try. They believe in BIG
GOVERNMENT. Why? I really don't know. This is the golden moment and
they will not let it happen.
JP| 7.11.11 @ 11:18AM
Ross doesn't seem to understand that the baseline for
discretionary spending increased some $300 billion in the last 30
months. This spending doesn't include entitlements. And the current
short term spending short falls can be addressed by rolling these
increases back to 2008 levels.
The other issues dealing with entitlement reforms are political
issues that will be a addressed during the 2012 elections. The debt
cieling debate is not the time or the place to take on such
complex, and politically volatile issues. Niether party has a clear
governing mandate, and with the election cycle now upon us, there
is no incentive to tackle them. In any event, the GOP had a rather
solid platform to press spending reductions with the debt cieling
debate. Instead they allowed opposition to make this a referendum
about taxing the rich. Will they ever learn.
Oldefarte| 7.11.11 @ 11:36AM
I fail to understand why this insistance upon cutting Medicare
and SS is happening and my guess is that same are SCARE TACTICS by
Democrats in order to gain support for tax increases. Why is not
cutting of Medicaid, farm subsidies, foreign aid, various
governmental welfare programs, the space program, excessive
military hardware and duplicitous military bases on the table of
discussion instead? If these things were seriously cut or
eliminated, the federal defecit/debt would be non-existent and the
resultant surplus would stretch to China!!!!!!!
martin j smith| 7.11.11 @ 12:17PM
Oldefart--I agree with your point about addressing cuts in
programs that are stuff like Medicare etc. And indeed scare tactics
are the order of the day.
In addition, tax increases should be scary as well especially
considering our unemployment numbers.
Republican leaders do need to dispute Socialist and Obama's
premises that somehow taxes will ( and spending ) work. Look at
Greece !!!!!!!!!!
The tone on a strategic point of view could be this: We love Obama
but his ideas do not compute--not if want to get out of economic
crises.
From a purely strategic point of view I think in a friendly tone
connecting Obama to the economy and his economic ideas ( that have
failed ( as with a smile ) to our Socialist ( i.e. Democrat
"friends")
can be a very effective method.
My gut sense is this, its not about taking the "high road" its
about recognizing how the "public" sees things. My gut tells me
they want solutions, but not on a personal negative tone. But they
also want the truth as well. And connecting the idea that tax and
spend now is a forgone failure and must change is key.
Controse| 7.11.11 @ 1:29PM
Maybe the Republican leadership should outsource education of
the electorate as to the choices we face to one Sarah Palin. She
connects. That's the ticket. Ask Gov. Palin to be the spokesperson
for the Republican party during these trying deficit reduction
times.
Jeff Perren| 7.11.11 @ 10:19PM
Ayn Rand never advocated anarchy-capitalism, which she regarded
as contradiction in terms. She believed libertarianism itself was
silly.
Bill Hussein O'Stalin| 7.11.11 @ 10:59AM
Instead of attacking Obama the Republicans should take it upon themselves to educate the public. They could start with sophisticated charts like this that indicate government spending has largely been a waste of diminishing returns.
It would be fairly easy to to show how government spending is destroying the wealth of everyone. In hindsight, some will actually like that.
http://financialminorityreport.....y-of-debt/
buckeyeman| 7.11.11 @ 1:17PM
The federal government takes in roughly 55 percent of ongoing outlays. For those of us who believe that a 45 percent cut in the Federal budget would be a good start, this is the perfect scenario. The effect of refusing to increase the debt limit would be the same as a balanced budget "amendment" or simply balancing the budget to current federal revenues. The debt could be serviced and the military could be paid. All other expenses, including SS, Medicare,
Medicaid, NPR, the Departments of "Education" and "Energy" etc, the "United Nations", aid to countries that hate us, "scholarships" etc would need to be assessed and priorities. Some would and should be eliminated. Some would be paid at dramatically reduced levels. Some could be paid at nearly the current levels.
Catastrophe would be avoided but the welfare state would be forced to shrink. The Republicans could accomplish the greatest reduction in the Welfare State in history and yet...............
They will not do it. You can be assured that they will not do it by the simple fact that they have not even tried to educate the public. Sophisticated charts like those referenced above (and they ARE interesting, Bill) are not necessary or within the understanding of most citizens. The Republican "leadership" will not even try. They do not want to try. They believe in BIG GOVERNMENT. Why? I really don't know. This is the golden moment and they will not let it happen.
JP| 7.11.11 @ 11:18AM
Ross doesn't seem to understand that the baseline for discretionary spending increased some $300 billion in the last 30 months. This spending doesn't include entitlements. And the current short term spending short falls can be addressed by rolling these increases back to 2008 levels.
The other issues dealing with entitlement reforms are political issues that will be a addressed during the 2012 elections. The debt cieling debate is not the time or the place to take on such complex, and politically volatile issues. Niether party has a clear governing mandate, and with the election cycle now upon us, there is no incentive to tackle them. In any event, the GOP had a rather solid platform to press spending reductions with the debt cieling debate. Instead they allowed opposition to make this a referendum about taxing the rich. Will they ever learn.
Oldefarte| 7.11.11 @ 11:36AM
I fail to understand why this insistance upon cutting Medicare and SS is happening and my guess is that same are SCARE TACTICS by Democrats in order to gain support for tax increases. Why is not cutting of Medicaid, farm subsidies, foreign aid, various governmental welfare programs, the space program, excessive military hardware and duplicitous military bases on the table of discussion instead? If these things were seriously cut or eliminated, the federal defecit/debt would be non-existent and the resultant surplus would stretch to China!!!!!!!
martin j smith| 7.11.11 @ 12:17PM
Oldefart--I agree with your point about addressing cuts in programs that are stuff like Medicare etc. And indeed scare tactics are the order of the day.
In addition, tax increases should be scary as well especially considering our unemployment numbers.
Republican leaders do need to dispute Socialist and Obama's premises that somehow taxes will ( and spending ) work. Look at Greece !!!!!!!!!!
The tone on a strategic point of view could be this: We love Obama but his ideas do not compute--not if want to get out of economic crises.
From a purely strategic point of view I think in a friendly tone connecting Obama to the economy and his economic ideas ( that have failed ( as with a smile ) to our Socialist ( i.e. Democrat "friends")
can be a very effective method.
My gut sense is this, its not about taking the "high road" its about recognizing how the "public" sees things. My gut tells me they want solutions, but not on a personal negative tone. But they also want the truth as well. And connecting the idea that tax and spend now is a forgone failure and must change is key.
Controse| 7.11.11 @ 1:29PM
Maybe the Republican leadership should outsource education of the electorate as to the choices we face to one Sarah Palin. She connects. That's the ticket. Ask Gov. Palin to be the spokesperson for the Republican party during these trying deficit reduction times.
Jeff Perren| 7.11.11 @ 10:19PM
Ayn Rand never advocated anarchy-capitalism, which she regarded as contradiction in terms. She believed libertarianism itself was silly.
Why the gratuitous slam?