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In today's New York Times, Ross Douthat troubles himself to understand why the Republicans are avoiding giant tax increases in the debt ceiling negotiations (if only the same could be said for David Brooks). 

Douthat mentions, among other important points, that it will only become harder for Republicans to reform federal spending as time passes:

The long-term deck is stacked in favor of tax increases. For decades, the tug-of-war between left and right has kept government's share of the economy nearly constant, around 19 percent of G.D.P. But in what you might call the revenge of Lyndon Johnson, the ballooning cost of Medicare is poised to tilt the debate decisively toward liberalism.

For now, tax increases and entitlement cuts are equally unpopular. But with every passing year, the constituency for letting Medicare grow as scheduled gets bigger and bigger, and the clout of working-age taxpayers diminishes. Already, even a relatively radical proposal like Paul Ryan's budget seems compelled to exempt current retirees from its Medicare reforms. Imagine how the landscape will look in a decade.

 

View all comments (7) | Leave a comment

Bill Hussein O'Stalin| 7.11.11 @ 10:59AM

Instead of attacking Obama the Republicans should take it upon themselves to educate the public. They could start with sophisticated charts like this that indicate government spending has largely been a waste of diminishing returns.

It would be fairly easy to to show how government spending is destroying the wealth of everyone. In hindsight, some will actually like that.

http://financialminorityreport.....y-of-debt/

buckeyeman| 7.11.11 @ 1:17PM

The federal government takes in roughly 55 percent of ongoing outlays. For those of us who believe that a 45 percent cut in the Federal budget would be a good start, this is the perfect scenario. The effect of refusing to increase the debt limit would be the same as a balanced budget "amendment" or simply balancing the budget to current federal revenues. The debt could be serviced and the military could be paid. All other expenses, including SS, Medicare,
Medicaid, NPR, the Departments of "Education" and "Energy" etc, the "United Nations", aid to countries that hate us, "scholarships" etc would need to be assessed and priorities. Some would and should be eliminated. Some would be paid at dramatically reduced levels. Some could be paid at nearly the current levels.

Catastrophe would be avoided but the welfare state would be forced to shrink. The Republicans could accomplish the greatest reduction in the Welfare State in history and yet...............

They will not do it. You can be assured that they will not do it by the simple fact that they have not even tried to educate the public. Sophisticated charts like those referenced above (and they ARE interesting, Bill) are not necessary or within the understanding of most citizens. The Republican "leadership" will not even try. They do not want to try. They believe in BIG GOVERNMENT. Why? I really don't know. This is the golden moment and they will not let it happen.

JP| 7.11.11 @ 11:18AM

Ross doesn't seem to understand that the baseline for discretionary spending increased some $300 billion in the last 30 months. This spending doesn't include entitlements. And the current short term spending short falls can be addressed by rolling these increases back to 2008 levels.

The other issues dealing with entitlement reforms are political issues that will be a addressed during the 2012 elections. The debt cieling debate is not the time or the place to take on such complex, and politically volatile issues. Niether party has a clear governing mandate, and with the election cycle now upon us, there is no incentive to tackle them. In any event, the GOP had a rather solid platform to press spending reductions with the debt cieling debate. Instead they allowed opposition to make this a referendum about taxing the rich. Will they ever learn.

Oldefarte| 7.11.11 @ 11:36AM

I fail to understand why this insistance upon cutting Medicare and SS is happening and my guess is that same are SCARE TACTICS by Democrats in order to gain support for tax increases. Why is not cutting of Medicaid, farm subsidies, foreign aid, various governmental welfare programs, the space program, excessive military hardware and duplicitous military bases on the table of discussion instead? If these things were seriously cut or eliminated, the federal defecit/debt would be non-existent and the resultant surplus would stretch to China!!!!!!!

martin j smith| 7.11.11 @ 12:17PM

Oldefart--I agree with your point about addressing cuts in programs that are stuff like Medicare etc. And indeed scare tactics are the order of the day.
In addition, tax increases should be scary as well especially considering our unemployment numbers.
Republican leaders do need to dispute Socialist and Obama's premises that somehow taxes will ( and spending ) work. Look at Greece !!!!!!!!!!
The tone on a strategic point of view could be this: We love Obama but his ideas do not compute--not if want to get out of economic crises.
From a purely strategic point of view I think in a friendly tone connecting Obama to the economy and his economic ideas ( that have failed ( as with a smile ) to our Socialist ( i.e. Democrat "friends")
can be a very effective method.
My gut sense is this, its not about taking the "high road" its about recognizing how the "public" sees things. My gut tells me they want solutions, but not on a personal negative tone. But they also want the truth as well. And connecting the idea that tax and spend now is a forgone failure and must change is key.

Controse| 7.11.11 @ 1:29PM

Maybe the Republican leadership should outsource education of the electorate as to the choices we face to one Sarah Palin. She connects. That's the ticket. Ask Gov. Palin to be the spokesperson for the Republican party during these trying deficit reduction times.

Jeff Perren| 7.11.11 @ 10:19PM

Ayn Rand never advocated anarchy-capitalism, which she regarded as contradiction in terms. She believed libertarianism itself was silly.

Why the gratuitous slam?

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More Blog Posts by Joseph Lawler

http://spectator.org/blog/2011/07/11/reasons-for-gop-hard-line-nego

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