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The Spectacle Blog
Yesterday I took a stab at explaining why the debt ceiling negotiations between the White House and the GOP leadership currently revolve around concessions that seem out of the range of possibilities for Republicans. To recap, the administration is asking for about $400 billion in tax hikes to go along with $2.4 trillion in spending cuts, according to the Wall Street Journal. They would not take the form of rate increases, but instead include “a repeal of oil and gas subsidies, an acceleration of the depreciation on private jets, a limit on deductions for the wealthy, and a change in how businesses value their inventory.”
With all of the key Republican players constantly swearing off tax hikes, it’s hard to see how this remaining distance between the two sides will be bridged. But one way or another — whether it’s allowing some tax increases, cutting defense spending, or permitting some increase in fees — it will be, simply because Republicans will not get everything they want.
It should be obvious that the reason that Republicans have made, and continue to make, maximalist demands is that doing so is good bargaining strategy. At the start of negotiations, you make the biggest demands possible, and threaten to walk away if they’re not met. And this is just the start.
What both Republicans and Democrats know is that Republicans will not walk away. Despite the conspiracy theorizing of some progressives (Christopher Hayes of The Nation wondered if Republicans “want some sort of crisis” to increase interest rates on MSNBC last night) the vast majority of Republicans really have no interest in risking the credit of the United States. They also know that they have time to use this issue against Obama. Sure enough, there are new indications today that the August 2nd deadline set by the Treasury will be pushed back.
In other words, Republicans have a real chance to extract some serious reforms from the Democrats, including, possibly, structural budget reforms or much-need entitlement spending reforms. But they’re not going to get a full-scale retrenchment of the welfare state, as, for instance, Marco Rubio has demanded. As with the continuing resolution negotiations, Republicans have overpromised to their constituents, and did so as part of their bargaining strategy.
[Photo taken from SpeakerBoehner’s Flickr Feed]
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More Blog Posts by Joseph Lawler
http://spectator.org/blog/2011/06/28/why-republicans-wont-get-every
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Bill Hussein O'Stalin| 6.28.11 @ 6:01PM
If they get anything I will be surprised.
On the last outing they got shellacked.
Michael L. Hauschild| 6.28.11 @ 6:04PM
The photo provides the answer as to why they (and therefore us) will get as Bill enumerates "shellacked."
RJ| 6.28.11 @ 6:45PM
This article loses me in so many ways. First, the headline, "Why Republicans won't get everything they want." Gee whiz. When did they ever get much of what they want? Who in their right mind is expecting everything or even anything good?
From then on the article reads like it was written by Bob "Let's Make a Deal" Dole. The GOP needs to compromise with the Democrats in raising the "debt limit" only if they want to protect their own spending ideas. I guess that is confirmation that the Establishment GOP is just as much in favor of Big Government as the Democrats with the difference being who gets the benefit of bankrupting the taxpayers. I can just hear the Rinos now, "We are moderates. We only want to expand the unsupportable debt by another $4 trillion." Great.
Nor does it make sense to me that the government's credit can only be saved by taking on more debt. Explain that one to me.
Finally, in real terms the US government blew by its debt limit a long time ago. Just this last year, there were no "real" buyers for over $700 billion of its debt. US debt has exceeded the credit resources of the world. Quite an accomplishment. Everywhere outside the Beltway, people realize that creditors establish debt limits, not the debtor.
The madness of the Emerald City must end. It is time to get the Wizard, his campfollowers and all of the trolls out of the palace. Toto could do a better job.
Michael L. Hauschild| 6.28.11 @ 7:13PM
Listen to senator Johnson of Wis. in his address to the Senate today. You can find it a Red State. Hope he does what he says.
Truth to Power| 6.28.11 @ 7:19PM
Lawler is already talking down what Republicans can get before Obama has even made an offer. This is the most stupid kind of negotiating that I have ever heard. I hope he is young and just doesn't know any better. Maybe he could answer which Republicans are safe if they join the Democrats in tax increases and meaningless cuts? Sometimes I hate our over-educated pundits more than I hate theirs.
CalMark| 6.28.11 @ 7:40PM
As I said yesterday, Mr. Lawler seems like the kind of "conservative" who would have urged Ronald Reagan to compromise with Democrats and increase taxes in 1981.
Oldefarte| 6.28.11 @ 7:57PM
'Everything'? Hades, Joseph, most of us would settle for the elimination of foreign aid, welfare, IMF funding, AFFORDABLE HOUSING subsidies, Acorn funding, $1000 Pentagon toilets, etc; which is certainly far from 'everything' !!!!!!!!
christian louboutin | 6.28.11 @ 11:50PM
Cycling shorts, knickers or tights - again it depends on the type of bicycle touring you are doing with some cyclists taking the traditional shorts while other take the baggy shorts which have handy pockets.
Occam's Tool| 6.29.11 @ 1:34AM
How 'bout starting with defunding NEA and PBS?
martin j smith| 6.29.11 @ 7:33AM
Mr Lawler: Exactly who are the "Republicans"--do not tell me just the Party name--that wont fly with me. Let me tell you something, the Republican Party could go to the Americn People and explain the trouble that we are in. They could tell the voters that THEY have a choice--a nation in bankruptcy or a nation growi9ng again. What do THEY want. ? Instead as they did earlier they go behind back doors and make deals they cannot defend. Is this the " Republican Party" you are talking about ?
Conservative View| 6.29.11 @ 7:59AM
BUT DO THE PEOPLE GET WHAT THEY WANT?
Of all the things that matter in politics today, the Republicans getting what they want must be near the bottom of the list. The Republican Congressmen were given a majority in the house not because they were members of the Republican Party but because as individuals the people wanted them there. All politics is local.
And there in lies the rub, for it was the people, the voters who spoke clearly as to what they want. Given the two political parties the Republicans matched the will of the voters most closely. What do the people who elected members of Congress want? Well they want a whole lot of things.
They want a country that is not going broke. They want the lies to stop. They want responsible spending in Washington. They want the governments paws out of their wallets. The problem befor the Republican Party now is matching the political realities in Washington with the desires of the people back home.
The people will be left wanting this trip to the well. The Democratic ideals are simply too strong to totally overcome. That's this time. I suspect that 2012 will see a stronger push to the right by the voters, a stronger push towards fiscal responsibility on the part of government. Those members of Congress that "cave" on budget talks are likely to find the cave falling in on them in 2012.
The people will not get what they want. That's a given. Washington politics just doesn't work that way. That is, the people will not get what they want this time, but this time around is not the final battle. This war for the soul of America has a few more years to go until one America or another will emerge. We will either become the Socialist States of America, or the United States of America, but we will not become both. One has a strong central Government ruleing our daily lives, the other has a weak central Government begging us to behave like good citizens. In the end, it will be up to the individual in the voteing booth to decide which America exists.
Zbigniew Mazurak | 6.29.11 @ 9:20AM
This article is utter garbage. It's not even worth considering.
Firstly, Republicans can get significant concessions from the Democrats (though not a full-scale retrenchment of the welfare state, as desirable as that goal is - for that, they'll need the Senate and the WH), because, as Marc Thiessen has pointed out, Republicans hold ALL of the cards.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/.....story.html
Republicans don't have to agree to anything. On the other hand, if Republicans don't vote to raise the debt ceiling, America will default on its debt and the Democrats (plus Obama) will be blamed for that.
But don't worry, folks, Republicans have already decided to surrender, and they plan to surrender by agreeing to the Democrats' BIGGEST DEMAND: deep defense cuts (which Eric 'Dual Loyalty' Cantor and Kevin McCarthy have been pushing for for a long time). This is the Dems' biggest demand. As they (including Barney Frank) have publicly admitted, gutting America's defense is even MORE important to them than raising taxes. They're not out to "soak the rich", they're out to gut America's defense.
And this is the worst blunder that Republicans can make. When you negotiate with other people, you DON'T give in to their BIGGEST demand (not unless you obtain huge concessions outweighing your own first). By giving in to the Dems' biggest demand, Republicans have ensured that the Dems will have NO incentive whatsoever to give them anything back. Now that Republicans have accepted their biggest demand, they have nothing important to demand (and to pay a price for).
Remember the 1980s, when Ronald Reagan negotiated with Gorbachev? The Soviet leader's biggest demand was that Reagan give up his SDI program. Reagan demanded an INF Treaty that would ban all American and Soviet IRBMs. He refused to give in to Gorbachev's biggest demand, because he knew that if he did that, he would've been unable to obtain any concessions from the Kremlin. So he NEVER surrendered the SDI program.
BTW, the French have called me and have told me that they're appalled by how easily Republicans have surrendered. They say that even they don't surrender that easily.
Last but not least, a huge majority of Americans opposes a debt ceiling hike under any circumstances - with or without spending cuts. That being the case, why on Earth give in to any of the Dems' demands? Why gut defense? Why hike taxes? There's no reason to do so.
Ken (Old Texican)| 6.29.11 @ 9:35AM
Look folks,
it really is simple... too many congressmen come from 50-50 districts...(with 50% of voters on the take.)
Catch 22.
WL| 6.29.11 @ 10:05AM
I agree with some of the other comments. This article is an example of the same mealy mouth propoganda that our "conservative" columnists always seem to write...
Already starting to lower expectations...
Ergo 100billion in cuts has dropped to 61billion
Then as we get closer...the "starting" number will drop to the old compromise number....
Then....it will be finished with a whopping 38 billion in spending cuts....
Bamster and Boehner will trot out their success...and the Bamster will have DONE IT ALL, of course....
Then before the week is out...it will have turned out that all of the "cuts" were lies....and nothing really was cut.....
We've seen this movie before.
And will again.
Because the Republicans are liars.
The are nothing more than 1 actor in a 2 party show.