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The Spectacle Blog
Jim noted this morning that the Pawlenty team is spinning their candidate’s poor showing in the latest Des Moines Register poll with comparisions to Mike Huckabee, who was also far behind at this point in the race. Huckabee caught on after a surprise second-place showing in the Ames Straw Poll, an early test of organizational strength that helped propel him toward his eventual victory in Iowa.
Veteran GOP strategist Mike Murphy, declaring that Pawlenty needs to to “at least triple that TV buy,” opined on Twitter over the weekend that Pawlenty’s campaign could face a death spiral if he doesn’t make a strong showing at Ames on August 13: “No Ames bump = no more incoming $ = no fall campaign = no votes. Over, unfairly, before it starts.”
I think this analysis is right. Ames is Pawlenty’s only chance; if he doesn’t make a strong showing, his candidacy is most likely doomed. One thing he has going for him is that Romney is skipping the Ames Straw Poll altogether; some have taken this as an indication that Ames doesn’t matter much, but for Pawlenty, at least, I don’t think’s the case.
View all comments (13) | Leave a comment
More Blog Posts by John Tabin
http://spectator.org/blog/2011/06/27/pawlentys-only-chance
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ggoblue| 6.27.11 @ 5:34PM
"No Ames bump = no more incoming $ = no fall campaign = no votes. Over, unfairly, before it starts."
whats unfair about it? he's a rino, and for rinos, the chickens have come home to roost. one thing counts in iowa-feet on the ground. you either have the supporters or you don't.
Occam's Tool| 6.27.11 @ 5:36PM
Go Michele!!!!!!!!!
Reaganite Republican | 6.27.11 @ 6:04PM
Bachmann will squash Palwenty like a bug
Nice guy and a real conservative, imho... with the personality of a parking meter
Zack| 6.27.11 @ 6:32PM
I agree. He seems likable enough, but nobody seems particularly inspired by him. Unless he can somehow swoop in after the names at the top really beat the hell out each other, I don't see how he can win. He's probably the frontrunner for VP at this point, though.
Chuck| 6.27.11 @ 7:01PM
Prediction...Bachmann wins straw poll, in a surprise Perry takes the place position, Pawlenty back to Minnesota and Gingrich back to Greece.
Bob| 6.27.11 @ 7:13PM
Hey don't count out Pawlenty just yet. Bachmann has made another gaffe confusing John Wayne's birthplace with John Wayne Gacy's. Come on now Republicans your female frontrunner keeps flunking the geography exam in spades. Winterset/Waterloo/Lexington & Concord. The capital of Iowa is dah...Keokuk, way to go Michele.
George from Iowa| 6.27.11 @ 7:23PM
I'm beginning to wonder if Bachmann can find Lake Michigan on a United States map? No, how about the Pacific Ocean on a world map? No, we Iowans are in trouble.
Bob| 6.27.11 @ 7:31PM
Since Bachmann confuses Waterloo her home town with Winterset she couldn't find Iowa her home state on a US map and thinks Keokuk is the state capital, you are in trouble.
Occam's Tool| 6.27.11 @ 9:07PM
It matters more that she's comfortable around tax law.
By the way, have you seen the enter the "Enter the Raffle for a Dinner with Obama for 5 bucks" website?
bubba16123| 6.27.11 @ 9:09PM
If aT-paw falls in Iowa and nobody is around to hear it..................................
Bob Grant| 6.27.11 @ 10:20PM
Two suggestions from Bob Grant, political adviser to the stars:
(A) Get rid of that facial expression which says: I'm one good bowel movement from feeling good.
and
(B) Talk up fiscal successes in 'sota.
PattyMor| 6.28.11 @ 10:35AM
Well TPaw has been out moderated by Romney and Huntsman, out conservatived by Bachmann,
Santorum and Cain. So whats left? No Man's Land.
Anyone who once believed in man made global warming is not a deep thinker, but a jump on the bandwagon kind of guy.
weddingdress | 7.8.11 @ 4:51AM
another gaffe confusing John Wayne's birthplace with John Wayne Gacy's. Come on now Republicans your female frontrunner keeps flunking the geography exam in spades. Winterset/Waterloo/Lexington & Concord. The capital of Iowa is dah...Keokuk, way to go Michele.