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The Spectacle Blog
A new Gallup poll suggests that “More than one in five Americans, 22%, say they would not vote for their party’s nominee for president in 2012 if that person happens to be a Mormon, a figure largely unchanged since 1967.”
What’s particularly fascinating, and probably makes the poll less meaningful that it might have been given that the two Mormon candidates are Republicans, is that the percent of Democrats who would not vote for a Mormon is much higher than the percentage of Republicans or independents.
Although Gallup has a reputation as being even-handed, they strike me as using Democrat-leaning spin yet again (as I thought they did regarding polling results between President Obama and a generic Republican candidate). In particular: in the e-mail announcing the poll results, Gallup says that the 22 percent who would not vote for a Mormon “includes 18% of Republicans and 19% of independents, as well as 27% of Democrats.” Notice how the percentage of Democrats is 50 percent higher than the percentage of Republicans, but the Democrats are mentioned last and preceded with “as well as,” as if the Democratic figure is barely noteworthy?
Furthermore, within their article (linked above) about the poll result, they say “The new Gallup poll, conducted June 9-12, finds nearly 20% of Republicans and independents saying they would not support a Mormon for president. That is slightly lower than the 27% of Democrats saying the same.”
So, they round up the Republican and independent figures from the high teens to “nearly 20%” so that the first digit is the same “2” as the first digit for Democrats, and then they call it “slightly lower.” But it’s not “slightly” lower. As a percentage of the result, it’s massively lower…fully 50 percent lower for Republicans than for Democrats, and nearly 50 percent lower for independents versus Democrats.
Gallup risks its credibility as impartial with such inappropriate numerical manipulations.
While it’s not surprising that refusal to vote for a Mormon correlates inversely with level of education, I did find it interesting that younger voters were less likely to vote for a Mormon than older voters.
Other interesting poll internals: 9 percent said they wouldn’t vote for a Jew. On the one hand, that’s an incredibly high number in the 21st-century USA. On the other hand, it’s less than half of those who wouldn’t vote for a Mormon. And, dashing any hopes I’d have of being president, 49 percent said they wouldn’t vote for an atheist. (As an atheist Jew, I wonder if that makes me 29 percent unfavorable among voters…or 58 percent?) And if you’re a gay Mormon atheist, just forget about ever running for anything…
View all comments (28) | Leave a comment
More Blog Posts by Ross Kaminsky
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Michael L. Hauschild| 6.21.11 @ 3:01PM
"And, dashing any hopes I'd have of being president, 49 percent said they wouldn't vote for an atheist. (As an atheist Jew, I wonder if that makes me 29 percent unfavorable among voters...or 58 percent?)"
Being a libertarian favoring the GOA over the NRA brings that to 100%.
Timothy L. Pennell| 6.22.11 @ 7:22AM
HARRY REID is a MORMON. Has anyone EVER heard a peep, out of the Liberal BIASED Jeffery Immelt owned MEDIA, about that?
A LIE of omission, is still a LIE.
tonyo| 6.22.11 @ 10:36AM
No, it makes you an endangered species (like most of the "atheist Jews" who marry gentiles, don't have children, and vote for PLO-loving democrats). What a pity.
Occam's Tool| 6.21.11 @ 3:22PM
Sorry, Mr. Kaminsky. I'd vote for a Mormon, but I'd have questions re: an atheist. There is not a secular humanist dominant society that has a replacement birthrate. Conclusion: atheism is anti-survival.
What you want to believe is between you and the abyss, and there should be no religious test preventing you from running, but I couldn't vote for you given that fact. I vote for Candidates who support having lots of Westernized kids.
Dai Alanye | 6.22.11 @ 8:02AM
I would vote for a homosexual Muslim Martian against Obama, assuming he/she/it was a patriotic conservative American, and had a birth certificate from one of the fifty-seven states.
Al Adab| 6.21.11 @ 3:34PM
Not about religion for me. He is an establishment, accomodationist, old line Republican. Remember George? He and Rockefeller opposed the Conservative Movement from its inception. The son won't doscover the virtues of Conservatism any time soon.
Warrior | 6.21.11 @ 3:36PM
All of the democrats surveyed voted for a moron in 2008. Maybe they didn't fully understand the question.
Johnny| 6.21.11 @ 3:48PM
LOL warrior! They disprove of a Mormon but support a moron! Good one. Al Adab, you hit it just right, it's not about religion with most of us, with the exception of moooooslams, them I would not vote for! Sorry if I offend anyone( nah not really) but I am that narrow minded.
Johnny| 6.21.11 @ 3:43PM
The reason for the upswing in younger people being against a Mormon is the education (or lack there of) that has been provided via our liberal education system. I also just have to ask, is it possible to be atheist AND Jewish???
Josh Marihugh | 6.21.11 @ 3:51PM
I take this to mean culturally Jewish but without a belief in God.
I could vote for a Mormon or a Catholic or a Jew...I don't think I could ever bring myself to knowingly vote for a Muslim.
ncatty| 6.21.11 @ 4:40PM
What does culturally Jewish mean? Is it an ethnicity? Just because a cat has kittens in an oven doesn't make them biscuits.
Al Adab| 6.21.11 @ 4:54PM
Many of my Jewish friends regard it as neither a religion or ethnicity but rather as a tradition. This rather understates the source of that tradition but perhaps serves to explain how they view themselves.
Chime in here Occam if I need correcting.
Occam's Tool| 6.21.11 @ 4:00PM
Yes, Johnny, since Judaism is a matter of birth for the vast majority of Jews, not just belief. (That is whay 78% can vote for Obama)
We've been around for 3400 plus years. Much strangeness can accumulate.
Michael L. Hauschild| 6.21.11 @ 8:48PM
The Chair of my last committee was the top remote sensing scientist in the USSR. When Reagan broke them in 89 he immigrated to Israel. We got him from the University there in 96. To get him we had to bring all his PhD. candidates, which had origins from all over the world. They doctored out the last year I was at the University, I was lucky enough to work with him and his students for about three years.
Steve A| 6.21.11 @ 4:31PM
Ross, Always enjoy your take on things. Surprised to find you are an atheist. I have a feeling you may look at it like my uncle. It seems to confuse him whe I lay out these facts for him. I would be interested to hear your take on it:
#1: There either is a God or there is no God.
#2: Your belief or lack of belief in God has no impact on the reality of God.
#3: In short, your lack of belief does not create the reality of there being no God.
#4: Nobody really knows as nobody has come back (except Jesus for believers in Christianity)
Therefore your lack of belief is an act of faith. You really have no idea. You believe that all of this is some giant cosmic accident. You believe that something (matter) can come from nothing. This defies not only science, but logic.
Believers choose to put their faith in a supreme being being the originator or spark for the human spirit & creator of all things. This makes sense intuitively. An atheists must, by default, believe that the soul, spirit, & all matter spontaneously spring fourth from a great void of nothingness. This is nonsense & you seem logical. This is a contradiction.
Al Adab| 6.21.11 @ 4:51PM
Not uncommon to find atheists on the Libertarian side of the fence. Frankly, that is the error in the Libertarian approach which denies the existence of any absolute morality. Concepts of societal harm caused by "victimless crime" for example find no place in the world view.
That said I nonetheless welcome their alliance with Conservatives in the limited government, free market realm. We need all we can get and we agree on most.
rightasrain| 6.21.11 @ 5:52PM
Your uncle sounds like my uncle who, hedging all bets, used to pray "Dear God (if there is a God), save my soul (if I have a soul)." Drove my very religious mother nuts.
Ross Kaminsky | 6.22.11 @ 1:29AM
Steve,
I agree with your points 1-4 above.
That said, I think the burden of proof is on those who believe in God.
I think the pastafarians (Flying Spaghetti Monster) basically make my point for me.
I do not believe that something can come from nothing but I do believe that there are questions that can't be answered, and I don't choose mysticism as my way to answer them.
All that said, I'm not one of those atheists who go around bashing religion or trying to strip public life of religion. People like that make people like me look bad.
The deeper conversation about soul, spirit, etc., requires beer if not bourbon, and is not a conversation I enjoy over electronic communication to the extent that I enjoy it at all (which is very little.)
Bob K.| 6.22.11 @ 2:23AM
Ross,
You have just made yourself and your beliefs, or lack of them, a factor in everything you will write in the future on the AS website---as you will find out, to your dismay, from future comments.
Steve A| 6.22.11 @ 8:46AM
Thanks for the reply, Ross. Your final paragraph sums it up perfectly. I look forward to your next.
Ken (Old Texican)| 6.21.11 @ 4:59PM
Ross,
thank goodness God believes in you....dummy.
Why do atoms spin?
Why does gravity work?
If you are an athiest, why should we care about your tribe?
Well duh. Because your tribe introduced us to God, and because Jesus adopted us.
Candidly sir, I would spend my bottom dollar getting you NOT elected given the need.
Southern_Comment| 6.22.11 @ 12:15AM
The majority of Americans do believe in God and that faith is to be unquestioned. Would I think you would force your Atheism views to the forefront, no I don't. However, I think most people would feel better knowing that a president answers to a higher power and is not without conscience (that hasn't gotten us very far in the recent past). Also, I always wondered when an atheist is facing a desperate situation - do they pray then? Too bad we can't ask Madalyn Murray O'Hair if in her final moments she prayed. I think we would probably not have been very surprised at the answer.
Rich Rostrom| 6.22.11 @ 12:45AM
Some very bad math in this posting.
18% is not 50% less than 27%, it's 33% less.
27% is 50% more then 18%.
I'm surprised that anti-Mormonism is so strong.
There are probably several components to it.
Devout evangelical Christians would have trouble granting respectability to a votary of a damnable heresy. (Mormon doctrine is radically at odds with basic Christian principles.)
Blacks may still remember that the CoJCoLDS had a racial exclusion for its priesthood till fairly recently.
Social liberals regard Mormons as religious cranks, all the worse for being sincere. And they profess belief in the Book of Mormon, which is a fairly obvious fraud.
Ross Kaminsky | 6.22.11 @ 1:27AM
You're right...I meant to write that 27% was 50% more than 18%, but I was in a rush...
Intelligent Design| 6.22.11 @ 1:16AM
The average poll responder probably thinks Mormon is the same thing as Muslim. In any case, Romney would make an excellent running mate, for Obama.
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martin j smith| 6.22.11 @ 10:14AM
What is the purpose of such a poll in the first place ?
Did you ever think of that question first ? No,No, lets forget about the person stands for--lets bring up religion ?
Casey Abell| 6.22.11 @ 12:46PM
Ross, to defend Gallup a bit, there aren't any Democratic presidential candidates next year who are Mormons. In fact, there's only one Dem candidate and God knows (pun intended) what he is.
OTOH two declared Republican candidates are Mormons, including the frontrunner in Gallup's own polls. So I can see why Gallup would emphasize Republican ambivalence towards the religion. Is could be an important factor in the GOP race, while it's a complete non-factor in the Dem non-race.
And, after all, they did give the frankly disturbing Dem numbers on religious bias, even if you disagree with the slant. It's embarrassing data that can, should and will be used against the Democrats.