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The Spectacle Blog
According to a Magellan poll, Mitt Romney holds a huge lead in New Hampshire. Conducted after Monday night’s debate, the survey found 41 percent of Republicans and independents likely to vote in the 2012 GOP primary backed Romney. Ron Paul and Michele Bachmann were tied for second at 10 percent each.
Next came two undeclared candidates. Sarah Palin received 7 percent and Rudy Giuliani took 6 percent. Tim Pawlenty and Newt Gingrich were both at 5 percent. Herman Cain and Jon Hunstman polled 3 percent. And Rick Santorum brought up the rear at 2 percent. It’s early, but candidates who are depending on New Hampshire — like Giuliani and Huntsman — have their work cut out for them.
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More Blog Posts by W. James Antle, III
http://spectator.org/blog/2011/06/17/poll-romney-jumps-to-huge-post
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PattyMor| 6.17.11 @ 9:44AM
Maybe so, but Romeny is just too chicken to even try for Iowa. If he's that great, why can;t he go and sell his ideas?
Rick V.| 6.17.11 @ 9:46AM
Mitt just needs the right running mate to sew it all up. That would be John McCain. Go Republicans! Right over the cliff.
martin j smith| 6.17.11 @ 9:47AM
Why Mr Antle ?I do not trust ANY POLLS but having said that how will Romney deal with such issues as Romney Care ? Support for Global warming and his being another wealthy politician ?
There are enough issues that Obama could use against Romney --that is if you care to beat Obama.
Why if you want another John McC failure-go right ahead--make Obama's day. So do not be so optimistic or hopeful about Romney. Hope that some one with more sense comes along.
W. James Antle III | 6.17.11 @ 10:18AM
Doesn't really have anything to do with what I think. The polls, right or wrong, say what they say. Having said that, I've never been terribly impressed with the quality of statewide polling in New Hampshire. But for a 31-point lead to be wrong would require one hell of a margin of error.
Teflon93| 6.17.11 @ 12:03PM
Statistically speaking, no.
Polling at this point represents nothing more than name recognition. The population of likely voters isn't even paying attention.
You also forget that it takes more than one data point to confirm a trend and that the only thing which matters is the poll taken via voting machine on the day of the primary.
Every four years journalists--most of whom know nothing of math or statistics to begin with---lose their collective mind and pretend always-in-error-polling is prophetic.
Chuck| 6.17.11 @ 10:17AM
Interesting week for the GOP. Pawlenty blew his chance failing to nail Romney on Romneycare. I wonder if he's angling for a veep spot. Gingrich had his Muskie ('72) moment attacking the media for impugning his wife, no tears though from Gingrich. Romney, the front runner-social liberal, global warmest, a man with no economic plan had his I feel your pain Clinton ('92) moment amongst the unemployed in Florida and ignoring Iowa. Apparently he's been infected with Deweyitis thinking he has this won-skipping states, limited campaigning, few straw polls and no specific policies including an economic plan. Things are getting curiouser and curiouser . Calling Rick Perry.
somnolence| 6.17.11 @ 11:23AM
I've seen polls that show Palin burying Romney in Ohio and Florida, both larger states than N.H.(I tend not to believe ANY Magellan Poll anyway), and I'm talking about both votes and raising money. It is still a long way to next spring, but Bill O'Reilly keeps pushing Romney's nomination night after night, always citing the one poll out of dozens that show Romney at the top. One of this magazine's competitors showed Bachmann decimating everyone in the debate Monday night, and over 17,000 people voted in that particular poll. Romney will be on life support come next spring, count on it.
somnolence| 6.17.11 @ 11:25AM
I've never been to N.H. and I'm sure it is populated by some very nice folks, but it seems to me, say, over the last decade or so, that it is almost like Vermont in a way. Too stubborn for its own good.
Michael L. Hauschild| 6.17.11 @ 11:57AM
A Vermont citizen was in the woods harvesting maple syrup and came across a magic lantern, which he rubbed. A genie appeared and told him he had three wishes. His first wish was that every single resident, relative of a resident or immigrant from N. H. be returned within the state lines; that done, the genie then asked for his second wish. For number two he asked to have the genie erect a five hundred foot stone wall enclosing N. H. on all sides. The wall appeared, the genie asked, “Your last wish?” The Vermont citizen, smiled and said, “Fill it up with horse chestnuts.”
Teflon93| 6.17.11 @ 12:04PM
NH is now Massachusetts North. It is filled with emigres from the failed state to the south.
martin j smith| 6.17.11 @ 11:53AM
I think there is too much polling and not enough debating. Polling can be used in manipulative ways. Look, whoever is THE ONE will get my vote, but if the Republican party is to survive ( and if we are to survive as a nation ) Obama has to be defeated.
So, if Romney is it, and he is hit by the LEFT propaganda machine--and he will--then he and Republicans better hit back.
Right now, Romney is NOT on the top of my list,Pawlenty showed cowardess--a bad sign which he cannot repeat, Newt showed foolishness,
Trump-well--he was a joke after all. Huckabee was not in when he was in,Guiliani--too timid . That leaves Cain,Bachman maybe Perry and Palin?
Perhaps others yet to come.
TAKE A LONG STRETCH,HOLD YOUR HORSES
AND LETS SEE IF THERE CAN BE AN HONES AND GOOD DEBATE. There is PLENTY of time to pick a winner.
Wayne | 6.17.11 @ 12:10PM
So is ACORN out there drumming up votes for him?
Casey Abell| 6.17.11 @ 1:53PM
Basically, the poll says that Romney and Bachmann did fine in the debate.
Well, duh. Anybody who watched knows that. But there are a few more debates between now and February. Romney is the strong favorite in NH but he's not unstoppable.
But one of the other candidates will have to stop him, and it ain't happened yet. I would not bet on Romney self-destructing.