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The Spectacle Blog
I thought some of the reactions to my Tim Pawlenty post from last week might be worth discussing. First, I’m not saying Pawlenty can’t or won’t win the nomination. I’m simply arguing that his best chance for winning is to get into a Romney-Pawlenty race with Pawlenty on the right. If the lanes between him and Romney get clogged with other candidates, Pawlenty will have a much harder time breaking out.
A couple of commenters suggested that Pawlenty would still be running long after the so-called fringe candidates now outpolling him have dropped out. But there is no reason to assume that unless Pawlenty ultimately outperforms them in the early states. While some longshot candidates do drop out early, others stay in for the long haul — Alan Keyes was the last major Republican candidate to drop his challenge to George W. Bush in 2000. And there’s no reason for them to drop out at all if they are still getting more support than “serious” candidates.
There is ample precedent for candidates with less realistic paths to the nomination knocking off candidates with more realistic paths. Think Pat Buchanan vs. Phil Gramm in 1996. And while Mike Huckabee didn’t knock Romney out of the race in 2008, he did badly damage his Massachusetts rival by beating him in Iowa. Huckabee’s Iowa upset derailed Romney’s strategy of running the table in the early states and may well have cost Romney New Hampshire, setting up John McCain to mount a successful bid. There are also numerous examples of candidates with plausible presidential resumes receiving less votes than candidates with less plausible resumes. Think of Lamar Alexander’s two presidential campaigns and Richard Lugar’s one.
I agree that media attention and improved name recognition can improve Pawlenty’s fortunes substantially. But Herman Cain has relatively low name recognition and receives less favorable media attention, and his poll numbers have already improved nevertheless. To me, Pawlenty’s biggest challenge is getting a clean shot at Romney. The biggest danger his campaign faces is that a critical mass of Republicans who want someone to the right of Romney will prefer a candidate well to the right of Romney.
View all comments (16) | Leave a comment
More Blog Posts by W. James Antle, III
http://spectator.org/blog/2011/05/31/pawlentys-problem-contd
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Jeff| 5.31.11 @ 1:23PM
So what is his "Right Meter" reading ? didn't know there was a good scale to measure a candidates "rightness" ... but what the heck ... if you say so ...
35| 6.1.11 @ 12:53AM
Pawlenty cannot hold a candle to Jon Huntsman’s foreign policy credentials, Mitt Romney’s private sector credentials, or Mitch Daniels’s record in Indiana.
Pawlenty inspires no confidence. It’s telling that the voters of Minnesota replaced him with a liberal Democrat last November! An otherwise great Republican election in blue Midwestern states.
Pawlenty is running for president because he’s young and he has NOTHING ELSE TO DO!
Occam's Tool| 5.31.11 @ 2:26PM
What, exactly, is Pawlenty doing wrong? He has already apologized for his mistake on Cap and Trade, and not in the half-assed Huntsman fashion, either...
Dai Alanye | 6.1.11 @ 2:26PM
And... And Pawlenty has had a couple of first-class campaign commercials. The very fact he was able to select a highly capable video producer speaks well for him.
I'm still pulling for Santorum, though--a strong candidate in so many ways.
David T| 5.31.11 @ 3:20PM
Pawlenty will not win the nomination--period, end of sentence. Now can we move on?
florin| 5.31.11 @ 4:22PM
Unfortunately, the American people rely heavily on 'charisma' which is what got Obama elected. Perhaps this time they will look beyond the charisma for substance...but there has to be an outward appeal and I watched/listened to pawlenty's interview with Chris Wallace and he was awful! Not just boring, bland but he evaded questions with answers like: "Well, I do have a plan but I'm not ready to reveal it yet."....he's not presidential material...not yet anyway.
PattyMor| 5.31.11 @ 3:46PM
Once the big bus gets parked, and Sarah announces, the air goes out of Pawlenty's campaign. Its that simple. She will out fund raise, out campaign workers, and out charisma him. In other words, run circles around him. And she never endorsed Cap 'N Tax.
Shamus| 6.1.11 @ 7:31AM
Sarah wants to be a media celebrity. She won't run.
steve in ohio| 5.31.11 @ 4:32PM
Pawlenty's only hope is for Romney and Palin to bloody each other in the primaries. He's less than inspiring to any true conservative, but at least he's to the right of McCain (who most of us ended up voting for).
Handy| 5.31.11 @ 9:22PM
Romney is like Obama in so many ways. Find a dime's worth of difference between the two on policies, if you can.
But, it is more than that. The more Romney appears in public, the less popular he becomes. Just like Obama.
It is way too early to predict who will be the nominee, but I hope it is a brutal battle, and the one who ultimately carries the Republican banner against Obama will have been tested by fire. It's difficult to fathom, but the "Smoothie-In-Chief" still retains some loyal advocates. He, and they, must be defeated.
Iska Waran| 6.1.11 @ 12:07AM
Palin is not running. She hasn't hired anyone to do anything for a nascent campaign. Bachmann may run. She's at least hired a few people in IA & SC. I like her, but she'll say enough seriously retarded/crazy things by January where Iowa caucus-goers will see that she is just not ready for prime time. Running successfully for president requires serious message discipline. Charisma is great, but it's secondary to not sticking your foot in your mouth. Ask George Allen. Only Romney & Pawlenty have the ability to stick to the script. Pawlenty is the only plausible non-Romney candidate. As such, he will be the nominee, and has a better shot at Obama than any other republican. Never underestimate someone who's 9-0 in electoral contests.
Amy| 6.1.11 @ 12:49AM
Google: Tim Pawlenty Ben Foster
35| 6.1.11 @ 12:52AM
Pawlenty cannot hold a candle to Jon Huntsman’s foreign policy credentials, Mitt Romney’s private sector credentials, or Mitch Daniels’s record in Indiana.
Pawlenty inspires no confidence. It’s telling that the voters of Minnesota replaced him with a liberal Democrat last November! An otherwise great Republican election in blue Midwestern states.
Pawlenty is running for president because he’s young and he has NOTHING ELSE TO DO!
AH| 6.1.11 @ 12:55AM
Someone should ascribe the Flip-Flopper label to Obama. He has flip-flopped on the debt ceiling, the individual mandate, and public financing for his presidential campaign. Barack Obama is the most blatant flip-flopper!
Casey Abell| 6.1.11 @ 11:29AM
"Only Romney & Pawlenty have the ability to stick to the script. Pawlenty is the only plausible non-Romney candidate. As such, he will be the nominee."
Um, okay. Pawlenty gets the nomination because he's not Romney. And after all, no Republicans like Romney, except the 71% percent who have a favorable opinion of him (Gallup's May 31 number).