Now bask in the
utter, total insignificance of your contributions…not to
mention the extent of the fiscal abyss we’re all about to take a
swan dive into:
A dominant theme of President Obama’s budget speech last
Wednesday was that our fiscal problems would vanish if only the
wealthiest Americans were asked “to pay a little more.” Since he’s
asking, imagine that instead of proposing to raise the top income
tax rate well north of 40%, the President decided to go all the way
to 100%.
Let’s stipulate that this is a thought experiment, because
Democrats don’t need any more ideas. But it’s still a useful
experiment because it exposes the fiscal futility of raising rates
on the top 2%, or even the top 5% or 10%, of taxpayers to close the
deficit. The mathematical reality is that in the absence of
entitlement reform on the Paul Ryan model, Washington will need to
soak the middle class—because that’s where the big money is.
Consider the Internal Revenue Service’s income tax statistics
for 2008, the latest year for which data are available. The top 1%
of taxpayers—those with salaries, dividends and capital gains
roughly above about $380,000—paid 38% of taxes. But assume that tax
policy confiscated all the taxable income of all the “millionaires
and billionaires” Mr. Obama singled out. That yields merely about
$938 billion, which is sand on the beach amid the $4 trillion White
House budget, a $1.65 trillion deficit, and spending at 25% as a
share of the economy, a post-World War II record.
Say we take it up to the top 10%, or everyone with income over
$114,000, including joint filers. That’s five times Mr. Obama’s 2%
promise. The IRS data are broken down at $100,000, yet taxing all
income above that level throws up only $3.4 trillion. And remember,
the top 10% already pay 69% of all total income taxes, while the
top 5% pay more than all of the other 95%.