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Trump the Frontrunner? Not So Fast

By John Tabin on 4.15.11 @ 12:14PM

Public Policy Polling -- a Democratic firm -- has a poll out today that shows Donald Trump leading among Republicans nationally. But after reading the questions I'm quite skeptical of the result.

The first four questions measure favorability ratings for Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich, and Mitt Romney. The fifth question asks who respondents would vote for if the choices were Michele Bachmann, Haley Barbour, Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, and Mitt Romney. The sixth through eighth questions ask who they'll choose among that field if Huckabee doesn't run, if Palin doesn't run, and if neither Huckabee nor Palin run. Then comes the ninth question:

Here's one last scenario: what if Donald Trump ran for President and the candidates were Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, Mitt Romney, and Donald Trump. Who would you vote for?

It's well-established that poll results can be seriously skewed by question order and phrasing. The way this poll is written seems quite likely to prejudice respondents to think of Trump as a particularly interesting candidate. This is supposed to be a scientific assessment of Trump's electoral strength?

The tenth question in the poll asks if respondents would "be willing or unwilling to support a candidate for the Republican Presidential nomination who firmly stated they believed Barack Obama was born in the United States"; 23% of the sample says 'unwilling,' and PPP claims that this explains Trump's high poll numbers. Please. Telling a pollster that you're a birther is a fun way to signal how much you hate Barack Obama, but I don't buy for a second that it's a make-or-break issue for a fifth of the GOP primary electorate -- as Ben Smith correctly notes on Twitter, "This is not how people vote."

PPP took a sloppily-designed poll and is spinning it to make Republicans look as crazy as possible. This may be comforting to partisan Democrats (like, say, the people who work at PPP), but there's no reason for the rest of us to take it seriously.

View all comments (34) | Leave a comment

Chuck| 4.15.11 @ 2:08PM

Headline next January...Romney wins New Hampshire Primary. Not So Fast! Trump is a big headache for Romney. Trump will go all out to win the NH primary and will feast on the carcass of Romneycare. A Trump win will knockout Romney.

Chris| 4.15.11 @ 2:25PM

Trump was on Rush today. He sounded pretty lucid to me. In all honesty, The Donald would probably appeal to a lot of independents. Social Cons (I'm one) probably won't like him. However with the state of the economy, I think if he is serious, he has a chance.

USSAlabama| 4.15.11 @ 3:18PM

I LOVE that Trump is in the mix. Forthright and outspoken. Hopefully he won't transform himself into a politician.

sharonzirn| 4.15.11 @ 4:18PM

Trump will make the Republicans more sane.

Margie| 4.15.11 @ 10:05PM

"Oh Donny boy, the pipes, the pipes are calling..."

you.. back to that t.v. show.

Mr. Trump, please don't run for President and become our Ross Perot. We don't need another 4 more of Obama & co.

Thanks.

Wayne | 4.15.11 @ 11:43PM

I am getting the Cain vibe. Trump in a sense is running interference for Cain. Trump will eventually get bored and move on, but the appeal of Cain, another businessman will grow. And Cain was not even in that poll. BTW: 61% vote for Cain in New Hampshire Tea Party today.

Margie| 4.16.11 @ 12:11AM

I love Herman Cain too. Alan West is also awesome absolutely, and I am really liking Paul Ryan as well, though he doesn't seem to have any aspirations as of yet.

We have plenty of good people on our side~ all really is NOT lost as many think. :^)

Jack| 4.16.11 @ 3:55PM

Herman Cain and Allen West would be awesome! I have complete faith in them. They are great examples of the American spirit and ideals.

Freedom4America| 4.16.11 @ 12:18AM

NO to Trump. We will just have 4 more years of Obomba if Trump runs as Independent or if he is even nominated by the Republicans.

NO to West. Will also have another 4 years of Obomba.

NO to Cain. You have to be INSANE to vote for Cain. Was on Fed Res Board and sees no reason to Audit the Fed.

Dr. Ron Paul/Dr. Rand Paul 2012

"Only Doctors Will Heal Our Country"

bluecollarbytes| 4.16.11 @ 8:42AM

The polls often seemed geared towards the politically-ignorant and those who form opinions on the fly (till the next round of suggestive-questions).

s bennett| 4.16.11 @ 9:12AM

Herman Cain-Paul Ryan .Pass it on!

Dee See| 4.16.11 @ 10:00AM

Sorry. Running another franchise slum icon
as 'saviour' ain't going to work.

The '80's Show' is over-------------------------------

"These people don't even get old,
they just get stale."
-D H Lawrence
essays 1921

Johnny| 4.16.11 @ 11:22AM

I hope Donald doesn't run, it will only muddy the waters for a good candidate. I really don't like him if you couldn't tell. He's full of himself and a big bag of hot air who, just like Obama, doesn't know how the world really works. He does get the talking points very well and knows what the public wants to hear, hmmmm politician maybe....

Oldefarte| 4.16.11 @ 2:19PM

Trump's commentary hits the bullseye, but his candidacy would be a disaster [as the Democrats would make political slaughter of his personal life]. The next president might wish to consider him for say, Secretary of Commerce or Treasury, though. Plenty of well qualified [professionally-politically-administratively] candidates, ie Barbour, Pawlenty, etc. Not so enthused about a Romney [Romneycare] or Huckabee [minister] candidacy, though. It's early, plenty of time till 11/2012. Anybody but the current community-organizer-in-chief!!!!!!!!

Margie| 4.16.11 @ 3:15PM

Yeah, Trump should line up with Ron Paul.
There's the ticket. Ha!

Clint| 4.16.11 @ 4:55PM

Margie should line up for Her Next Shock Treatment at The Bucks County Institute for The Criminally Insane.
Apocalyptic Crank Lady Israel Firster Margie is Obsessionally Fixated.

Margie| 4.16.11 @ 5:15PM

Hey psychopath,

I truly hope you are not also stalking someone in person who shares my name living in Buck's county, thinking it is me.

If so, I hope when they apprehend you that you will be given said shock treatments, lock you up and throw away the key!

For the sake of society.

Clint| 4.17.11 @ 10:25AM

Actually, Sociopathic Psychotic Apocalyptic Crank Lady Victor-Margie, I Wouldn't Be Inclined To Walk Across The Street And Piss On You, If You Were On Fire.

Take Two Shock Treatments & Call Your Court Appointed Psychiatrist In The Morning.

Margie| 4.17.11 @ 1:50PM

Lovely Catholic you are, a shining example of the "faith".

The fire that is you will be put out some day, by the King of Kings!

Jack| 4.18.11 @ 7:21PM

Hate is not a Christian value, Major Margie.

Oldefarte| 4.17.11 @ 11:36AM

At least that would be an INTELLIGENT ticket, as opposed to what we now are faced with [no doubt influenced by the FANATICAL-RELIGIOUS NUT JOB rantings of Jeremiah--GD AMERICA pulpit] . As the GWB billboard proclaims, MISS ME NOW?

Margie| 4.17.11 @ 8:09PM

And it would also give the election to Obama for a second time.

And what's intelligent about Protectionism, Isolationism, and lunacy?

Jack| 4.18.11 @ 7:26PM

What's intelligent or MORAL about rampant interventionism? You are a blind fool. You are also evil because you push for more unnecessary wars that send other women's sons and daughters into fighting and death.

Get off your own fat ass and fight your own wars, big-mouthed blowhard. The Lord will punish you for your ugly pride and arrogance.

VFT| 4.16.11 @ 5:22PM

I saw some info on Donald Trump everybody should know. In 1999, Donald Trump was a Republican, then he became an Independent,then a Democrat and in 2009 a Republican. He was pro-choice for years, even agreed to partial birth abortion, but all of the sudden, he is pro-life!!! He was for universal healthcare, now he isn't??? His record shows that he has mostly donated to Democrats. Do we want to have this man as President to choose our next Supreme Court judge. He wouldn't care if they were pro-choice, can he be trusted to make the right decisions regarding Obamacare. No way, Trump!!!

VFT| 4.16.11 @ 5:26PM

Mike Huckabee hasn't been a minister in over two decades. When he was Gov. of Arkansas for 10 1/2 yrs. he didn't push his religion, and won't do that as Pres. either. He has won most of the polls in the last year. That means he has gotten the most Republicans/Conservative and Indpendents, and some Moderates of all the "Republican " candidates. He has consistently had the highest favorables, lowest unfavorables of all the candidates.

Herman Cain is a great guy, but he has no experience in elected office (he lost his only bid in GA). He would need to get more exp. before he runs. Allen West said he wasn't interested in being President.

Kingofthenet| 4.17.11 @ 10:06AM

For you "Tea Partiers' your ticket should be Herman Cain and Allen West, AKA: BLACK2BLACK, Oh Lordy,Lordy I can see it Now! At least Trump will have a good relation with 'The Blacks'

stickyrobert| 4.17.11 @ 11:47AM

Trump is saying things that need to be said. If you believe in markets as solutions, Trump is a voice that needs to be heard. He is right, America is falling apart. We need a leader who know what it means to build and develop America. He sure does.
The man understands how dumb regulations are crushing our country. I want to hear from him what he will do about it.
I want to hear his solutions on energy, jobs, immigration, the national debt, the federal budget,
fighting terror in 3 countries, the cost of national defense and more. He has made mistakes and he has learned from them.
Hopefully America can benefit from his education.
I do think he is very worried about the condition of America. So am I.

Oldefarte| 4.17.11 @ 1:44PM

Just read/saw this, and was unaware of him until then. Interesting and may be a potential player:

http://www.newsmax.com/video/v.....1d9b3c4756

Mark Forbes| 4.17.11 @ 7:10PM

Trump appeals to the Republicans who feel that the China loving, open border, preemptive war, free trade an any cost Neo-Cons were the cause of the Republican collapse opening the door for Obama.

Margie| 4.17.11 @ 8:13PM

The Neo-cons are coming to take you away, they're coming to take you away!
Heehee Haha Hoho!

In truth the election of Obama & co. was caused by the Paul-bot mindset like yours~ blame the Republicans for everything, instead of the Left~ and write in your brother-in law on the ballot because the Republican isn't good enough for you narrow minded 1960's revisited anti-war hippie freaks.
Down with the Establishment, right?
Why not just become Democrats?

Mark| 4.17.11 @ 11:24PM

Nice try Margie but you are under the neo-con delusions that have captured so many conservative intellectuals who have their feet firmly planted in mid-air. The Neo-Cons busted up the great Reagan coalition that included the socially conservative "Reagan Democrats". The free trade at any price philosophy has gutted many cities of their tax base and good jobs and have shoved many into Democratic dependentcy. The replacement of good paying jobs with debt has exacerbated the current bad economic condition in the USA.

And the Neo-Con pre-emptive Middle East wars have not brought the promised peace and low energy prices. Last I heard, Iraq cut a deal with China and not the USA for their oil. The facts are on my side, Margie, not yours.

Margie| 4.18.11 @ 12:51AM

It would be interesting if one thing you said was true.
LOL.

Mard| 4.18.11 @ 3:07AM

No Margie, the laughs on you and those like you. Regardless of how the neo-cons try to reinvent themselves there are many of us who remember the damage that they have done to the conservative movement and the Republican party. The Republican party under BUSH collapsed because of their follies which opened the door for their alter ego intellectual darling Obama who also is an abject Wilsonesque failure.

Trump speaks to the failed intellectualism that has dominated both the Republican Party AND the Democratic Party. He speaks to the pride everyone once had in the USA; that shining city on a hill as Reagan use to say and not to the misguided big government elitist dream of globalization that eminates from the neo-cons or George Soros.