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The Spectacle Blog
Writing in TNR, Ed Kilgore describes the roadblocks in Mitt Romney’s path to the 2012 Republican presidential nomination. Romney will be going from being the full-spectrum conservative in the top tier to the most moderate top-tier candidate without changing any of his own positions. The ground has just shifted beneath his feet. But I think Kilgore makes too much of the differences between 2008 and now. I think Romney’s biggest problem, aside from Romneycare, is precisely this: “Back then, running against ‘maverick’ John McCain, social-issues heretic Rudy Giuliani, and economic-issues dissenter Mike Huckabee, Romney was essentially the movement conservative candidate in the race.”
And yet Romney wasn’t able to consolidate conservative support even back then. He wasn’t putting up the kind of numbers in the South he would have needed to beat McCain from the right. His support in Iowa proved shallow. Whether it was his pro-choice past or his Mormonism, evangelicals weren’t uniting behind him. Granted, the conservative vote was split and he didn’t emerge as the “anybody but McCain” candidate until very late in the game (almost certainly too late). But it was these underlying problems that created openings for Huckabee and Fred Thompson in the first place.
Certainly, Romney can win. But he has some problems. Meanwhile, Michele Bachmann outraised Romney in the first quarter.
View all comments (42) | Leave a comment
More Blog Posts by W. James Antle, III
http://spectator.org/blog/2011/04/01/its-not-easy-being-mitt
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Derek Leaberry| 4.1.11 @ 3:48PM
Romney's problem is that he is a chameleon not worthy of trust.
Romney was fanatically for homosexual "rights" in 1994 but was vaguely against the homosexual lobby in 2008. What is he for today? Will he go back to the old Reagan policy on homosexuals in the military? Will he fire Admiral Mullen? Does he approve Robert Gates' disastrous tenure at Defense? Will he push removing the Supreme Court's jurisdiction regarding the several states' anti-Homosexual Marriage Amendments?
Romney was for abortion in 1994 and noncommittal towards the issue in 2002. He had a metamorphosis in 2008. Will he remain anti-abortion? Will he push removing the Supreme Court's jurisdiction with regards to abortion? Will he appoint pro-life justices or will he appoint liberal judges like he did in Massachusetts?
Romney passed Obamacare in Massachusetts three years before Obama did. He was for it then and vaguely against it now. Which is the real Romney, the one of 2005 or the one of 2008?
Romney, like so many Mormons, supported massive Third World immigration until he ran for president in 2008 and McCain was his main opponent. Does he support rounding up illegal aliens and deporting them? Does he believe in enforcement of America's borders? Is he willing to prosecute businesses that employ illegal aliens even if many are Republicans and support him? Does Romney believe America has an ethnic and cultural core that makes it distinct? Will Romney tell McCain and Graham that amnesty is dead?
Until Romney can be trusted on the important issues of the day, he does not deserve the support of conservatives.
Zbigniew Mazurak | 4.2.11 @ 8:15AM
I agree with you except that even if Romney is elected in 2012, he won't be able to sack Adm. Mullen, because Adm. Mullen is scheduled to retire later this year. Obama is now looking for a successor to him.
Stan| 4.1.11 @ 3:49PM
I am being totally serious with this: the way things are going with Obama--and even though Romney has more philosophical baggage than I would normally allow--I will close my eyes & hold my nose, and cast a vote for Romney!
Tom Osterman| 4.2.11 @ 11:06AM
The problem with "hold your nose" types is they generate little enthusiasm with the base and less with everyone else. This is a disadvantage against someone who can generate enthusiasm, like President Obama. And don't count on the President being damaged goods. So was Clinton in '96, but he still campaigned circles around Bob Dole, another Republican with an enthusiasm deficit.
Dixie Pixie| 4.1.11 @ 4:01PM
I am no expert on Mitt Romney but I think Mitts strengths is that he is viewed as a resourceful and capable executive.
He also had the advantage of devising a workable health care plan before Obama.
That advantage turned into a lead weight when Obama passed ObamaCare.
Now Mitt Romney can not get rid of that weight without appearing to "weasel".
Unfortunately for Mitt Romney being a talented executive is not an political advantage when the battle calls for a political field general that can lop 1.7 Trillion dollars off the Federal budget.
That would require more political guts than Mitt has displayed.
Also with three wars going on now just being a executive is not enough.
Military experience at an officer level will be required.
The final nail in Mitts coffin is he is a North-Eastern Republican from Mass.
Not only has the South and West been burned many times by the North-Eastern Republicans but a North-Eastern Republican is viewed as being the same as a Southern Liberal.
In short, Down South, Mitt Romney is viewed by many as a Democrat Light in disguise.
PS...Webmaster, Please bring back the (Reply To This ) function.
Dixie Pixie| 4.1.11 @ 4:44PM
Praise be to the Webmaster.
Hallowed be his name.
For the the (Reply To This) function is back, with his Blessings.
Michael L. Hauschild| 4.1.11 @ 4:07PM
DL sums the rational for not trusting the RINO Romney with facts and even handed discourse. While what Stan states is true, a runner-up to McCain is simply a leaking retread to fix the flat. In the next election Romneys millions will be no match for the billions of Obama, his historical political gymnastics will not endear him to the Tea Party or SoCons, and the grudges he bears and holds will not allow his nomination.
JmsA| 4.1.11 @ 4:22PM
He's got only himself to blame; his wounds are self-inflicted.
CalMark| 4.1.11 @ 4:40PM
Romney is too slick for his own good. If elected, he'd be worse than George W. Bush.
Actually, I truly think he'd become another Arnold Schwarzenegger.
Lou Sarah| 4.1.11 @ 5:21PM
The race is to the swiftest, and right now, the Northern Ice Princess from Minnesota is busy lining up supporters, endorsements, organization in the GOP launchpad--Iowa.
If Palin and Huckabee sit this one out, which appears more likely everyday, Michelle Bachmann could rocket out of Iowa with a win and a lot of buzz in the race for the GOP nomination. Romney`s money won`t help him in Iowa--he outspent Huckabee almost 20-1 in 2008, and Huck still ate the Flipper`s lunch.
Bill H| 4.3.11 @ 1:25PM
I still can not believe how anyone can come on a website and type that Sarah Palin is not going to run. SHE IS GOING TO RUN. She just got back from India and Israel. Do not be so sure that Bachmann is not co-ordinating with Sarah. I still think the GOP ticket will be Palin-Bachmann.
Jonah| 4.1.11 @ 5:28PM
Romney's slimy untrustworthines--not his religion--is a deal breaker for me. I'll never vote for him.
Ran | 4.1.11 @ 6:24PM
Mr. Antle:
Guts. Fire. Passion. Being alpha.
As it is, only Palin, Cain and Bachmann have shown anything like the character. Trump, too, in his own style...
...if Romney wants the CINC job, he's going to have to convince us he really means it. Raising his hand like a little boy to the school-marm over global warming in the last round of debates did it for a lot of us. A proper leader of the free world doesn't do "a show of hands" on stage for a leftist twit. Only Thompson had the straight goods.
This ain't the "Romney's Turn" show. If he wants the job, he'd better act as is he wants it and knows what it means.
Cheers.
Jonah| 4.1.11 @ 7:05PM
Sorry, it's just not good enough for Mitt to "act like he wants it." At least not good enough for me. I don't give a good hotdamn what Romney wants. His flip-flopping record proves he's not up to the task.
Clint| 4.1.11 @ 6:27PM
Romney isn't A Tea Party Guy.
Go Home Mittens.
Paul McGrath| 4.1.11 @ 6:45PM
Romney is not conservative enough, although he is a good man. Bachmann and Palin are conservative enough, but they can't win. The rest are not worth mentioning.
There is only one person who is both conservative and who has a chance to win. He's said he's not going to run. But it has to be Christie.
Jonah| 4.1.11 @ 7:00PM
You're wrong about Christie. He may be a Conservative by your Northeast standards, but not mine. Christie's a gun grabber and he's soft on border security.
The Tea Party won't support him.
Chuck| 4.1.11 @ 8:28PM
Romney's rolling the dice in one place, New Hampshire. He's toast in Iowa and South Carolina so he desperately needs a win in the first primary. A Trump candidacy with focus on New Hampshire puts Romney's bid in jeopardy with an early knockout possible. Romney loses he's out.
Dan| 4.1.11 @ 10:47PM
A Great New Romney vs. Obama 2012 Video! http://mittromneycentral.com/2.....012-video/
Dee See| 4.1.11 @ 11:55PM
STILL WAITING for something beyond
CFR/Tavistock Institute cardboard to
represent the American people and their interests.
EVEN AS the immigration and economic and
TREASON issues are NOT confronted ---in this,
the 11th hour of doomed POST America.
Jo| 4.2.11 @ 12:58AM
You do realize don't you, none of us is going to get out of this alive? Eat dessert first--life is short!
Zbigniew Mazurak | 4.2.11 @ 2:09AM
Ah, now James Antle has written yet another piece in defense of yet another RINO, Mitt Romney. Earth to James Antle: No, Mitt Romney CANNOT win the 2012 presidential election, and he is unlikely to win the GOP's presidential nomination, absent a division among conservative Republicans.
Why? Because Romney, if judged by his record and not his post-2006 rhetoric, is a strident liberal, not a convert to the conservative cause. The examples are so numerous that I will not bother to restate them here. Suffice to say that he's not a consistent politician. He stands no chance of winning in IA and SC and will win the nomination only if the conservative wing of the GOP again forms a circular firing squad AND if he won't have any serious rivals on the liberal wing of the GOP.
W. James Antle III | 4.3.11 @ 10:21PM
Ah, now Zbigniew Mazurak has written yet another untrue comment that demonstrates his poor reading comprehension.
Acknowledging that is possible for Romney to win the nomination is not the same as defending him. In fact, I've written dozens of blog posts and an entire magazine article saying he would make a poor nominee. But the fact is, it's a weak field and Romney is polling the best of the candidates who are likeliest to run. John McCain won the nomination in 2008, for God's sakes. There is nothing empirical about this question at this point, it is simply a matter of opinion.
Jonah| 4.3.11 @ 11:46PM
We know the 2012 election result will be the same as the 2008 debacle if Romney runs.
It's dispiriting.
A conservative voter| 4.2.11 @ 8:02AM
It is not looking good for Romney. Both Romney and Bachmann will not get the nominee in 2012. They can't beat Obama. I am looking at former Gov. Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota. He is a good choice for the Republican Party ticket. Pawlenty is fiscal and social conservative like former late Pres. Ronald Reagan.
Hanover| 4.2.11 @ 5:06PM
Ew. I remember the great Ronald Reagan, and Pawlenty is no Ronald Reagan. Give us a break.
Lou Sarah| 4.4.11 @ 8:32PM
Neither are any of the potential GOP candidates. Let Reagan be Reagan, and let the rest find themselves! God, what a motley crew.
JimH| 4.2.11 @ 9:52AM
Romney's main problem is that he looks as if he is an executive for OCP.
Anthony| 4.2.11 @ 2:13PM
Romney seems to be a good man but his leftist social policies from the past have probably doomed him in the primaries. My guess is he leaned left to get elected in Mass. and that he really is somewhat socially conservative, but it's probably too late for him. Withou a doubt, though, I'd vote for him for president over Obama, but I'd even vote for that PTA treasurer from Alaska over Obama.
e cowan| 4.2.11 @ 2:34PM
'Certainly, Romney can win'
He'll never get my vote unless he will admit how wrong he was when he said on a radio talk show that we '...need illegal aliens to keep our economy going...'
He and Huckaby said essentially the same thing at about the same time (must have been during the 2008 election time). I wouldn't vote for either one of them!
PattyMor| 4.2.11 @ 3:48PM
Romeny can't win. He has the millstone of Romneycare around his neck when the electorate hates and wants to get rid of Obamacare. Then there is flipfloping policies regarding abortion and gays. Finally, his Mormon relgion will not be accepted by the Evangelicals. Unfair? Yes, but sometimes that's the way life is.
I'm for Palin, Bachmann, Cain in that order. I like The Donald for his ability to put President Obama back on his heels. Don't think he can win, but you gotta love The Donald as big, bold, and brash.
After that, its anybody but Obama. For more year of the Community Organizer in Chief and the U.S. is done as an economic and military power. We would be carved up by the Communists/Socialists/Islamists/One World Government types.
Hanover| 4.2.11 @ 5:08PM
Glenn Beck's a Mormon, and even he's not supporting Romney!
Michael L. Hauschild| 4.2.11 @ 9:00PM
"I'm for Palin, Bachmann, Cain in that order."
And that makes me for PattyMor.
Marco| 4.3.11 @ 12:27PM
Romney or Bachmann, both easily better than Huckabee or Pawlenty. My biggest problem with Mitt: is he prepared to really roll in the mud with the gangsters from Chicago, or he is just too decent a human being?
Helio| 4.3.11 @ 4:52PM
You're right; Romney is much too weak to deal with the Chicago thug tactics of Obama and his political gangsters.
Obama will chew Romney to pieces.
The Duke| 4.12.11 @ 7:24PM
Before Flipper gets to roll in the mud with Obama, he`ll have a chance to get ready by rolling in the mud of Iowa pig farms with Michele Bachmann, and -- if she runs-- The Alaska Ice Princess. Now, what a sight THAT could be! Run, Sarah, Run!
Lou Sarah| 4.3.11 @ 7:16PM
Here comes Michele--if Huckabee and Palin sit this one out, as now appears likely, Bachmann is well-positioned to sweep up delegates in Evangelical Iowa, giving a leg up on Romney.
Run, Michele, Run! Help re-elect the President.
Ryan| 4.4.11 @ 8:56AM
Wow, 30 posts in and no Romney staffers!
Jonah| 4.4.11 @ 6:52PM
They're at a Myth campaign meeting.
Rev Trask| 4.10.11 @ 4:46PM
So, how long do we have to wait for Flipper to mimic The Donald and start spouting `birtherisms?
After, we know that Flip will say ANYTHING to win the nomination.
The Duke| 4.11.11 @ 9:04PM
So I see that Palin is egging Trump on, hiding behind Facebook and Twitter, urging him to keep spouting that `birther mumbo-jumbo. She doesn`t sound like someone getting ready to run on her own, any time soon. More good news for Michelle Bachmann, bad news for Flipper!
The Duke| 4.11.11 @ 10:04PM
Will Mittens take the family dog on their vacation this summer, strapped to the roof of their car? What a sight that must have been!