The UN Security Council just
passed a
resolution authorizing international military intervention in
Libya, including a no-fly zone, and also “all necessary
measures…to protect civilians and civilian populated areas,
including Benghazi, while excluding an occupation force.” (This
would presumably involve a “no-drive zone,” which is a polite way
of saying bombing tanks.) Russia and China abstained rather than
excercising veto power. It looks like the US, among others, will
soon be at war in Libya, albeit in a limited war.
There’s no doubt that, as
I argued yesterday, the cost/benefit analysis of this course of
action has gotten significantly less favorable as the Obama
administration has dithered for weeks. But
maybe Bill Kristol has a point:
The fact is, we don’t know that it’s too late to affect the
outcome in Libya. A combination of no-fly and no-drive zones, and a
willingness to use force at least to prevent Qaddafi from
conquering the Bengazi enclave, could well still make a difference.
And as
Max Boot explains, getting to a standoff might still lay the
groundwork for the defeat of Qaddafi. So we shouldn’t excuse the
Obama administration from acting today or tomorrow because they
should have acted two weeks ago.
I find the linked Max Boot blog post somewhat more persuasive
than the op-ed of Boot’s that I responded to yesterday as I was
going wobbly. And while I feel like I’m supposed to have a firm
opinion on matters of war and peace, I can’t help but hedge.
Letting Gaddafi take Benghazi would be a human and strategic
tragedy, and toppling Gaddafi would be an important victory. But I
can’t shake the feeling that this isn’t so much laying the
groundwork for Gaddafi’s end as it is committing US forces to a
longterm mission to enforce a de facto partition. Protecting
Eastern Libya may be laudable in and of itself, but it’s quite an
effort to make if it doesn’t topple Gaddafi any time soon.
“Believing the Obama administration might still do the right
thing, and do it moderately effectively,” writes Kristol, “may
involve the audacity of hope — but better that than the
resignation of despair.” So here’s to hope.
(lightly edited early 3/18)
Occam's Tool| 3.17.11 @ 6:57PM
What if the Rebels are WORSE than Khadaffi? I'm going to post something that Clint is going to 100% agree with (although he'll insult me anyway...)---we should stay out of Libya and stress National autonomy. Both sides suck.
Warrior | 3.17.11 @ 9:24PM
Correct, we should just arm both sides and let them have at it. Where is the congressional declaration of war? We are going to use our military in another countries civil war and yet not even an authorization for the use of force from our deliberative bodies.
The liberals should be screaming at the top of their lungs and getting ready to organize protests about conducting this war. Sorry, I lost my mind for a second there, they would only take to the streets if this were a Republican president.
Clint| 3.18.11 @ 12:41AM
That's because The Israel Firster Chickenhawk Tool Job Sees No Advantage,Either Way For His Personal Israel First Agenda.
We Tea Party Patriots Got Israel Firster Tool Job's Number.
The Tea Party Rebellion Escalates.
Carpe Diem.
Occam's Tool| 3.18.11 @ 12:58AM
So, you support intervention, Clint. Why? How is it going to benefit the US, either financially or from a standpoint of US national security? Stop duckspeaking and think.
Occam's Tool| 3.18.11 @ 12:59AM
By the way, Clint, you wortyhless swine, I'm agreeing with Ron Paul on this one. STFU.
Occam's Tool| 3.18.11 @ 1:00AM
Sorry, worthless terrorist catamite swine. Ron Paul is with ME on this one.
Clint| 3.18.11 @ 10:08AM
Uh Oh !
Fixated Israel Firster AgendaGirl Tool Job is gettin' all PMS'y again.
Aaaand You're One Sorry-Assed Self Help Excuse For A Psychiatrist Tool Job.
Take Two Shock Treatments & Call Yourself In The Morning.
Occam's Tool| 3.18.11 @ 12:42PM
Clint, you are an idiot, you know.
NoLib| 3.18.11 @ 3:53PM
That was kind of funny, Clint. A first for you!
Clint| 3.18.11 @ 10:04AM
That's only because it's not to the advantage for Your Personal Fixated Israel Firster Agenda Tool Job.
Aaand Let's see ya try to make me STFU Israel Firster Chickenhawk Cupcake.
Occam's Tool| 3.18.11 @ 12:42PM
Easy enough. My seven year old is pissed at you.
Clint| 3.18.11 @ 9:59AM
No Israel Firster Tool Job. The United States Military & American Treasure isn't to be used, unless it's Vital to United States National Interests.
Get Ducked Israel Firster Chickenhawk Tool Job.
NoLib| 3.17.11 @ 7:01PM
Dick Morris said the crisis in Libya could possibly result in a Rwanda-like massacre. Is that what Gaddafi meant by "cleansing?" That's horrific.
Occam's Tool| 3.17.11 @ 7:08PM
I don't know. But the Rebels are affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood....
Nothing good is coming out of this one.
NoLib| 3.17.11 @ 7:21PM
The trajectory of every situation out there right now points straight to hell. It's terrifyingly Biblical. Am I the only one who feels this way?
Occam's Tool| 3.17.11 @ 7:41PM
No, you are not. When I buy gold, I make sure it has nuimismatic value for a reason.
Occam's Tool| 3.17.11 @ 7:52PM
Nope. You're not the only one. I'm going to get a pizza. One should be well fed before the stuff hits wind instrument.
NoLib| 3.17.11 @ 7:56PM
You make me laugh, Clint not so much.
Enjoy your pizza.
Aarradin| 3.17.11 @ 7:26PM
So, the President doesn't want to intervene. No one has even thought of asking Congress. The UN can authorize, but they can't order anything.
If Obama had any intention of doing anything, we would already have a carrier task force off Tripoli, but we don't. He already did everything he planned to, he made a couple of statements in a press conference and then went on ESPN to explain his brackets. He was hoping to go to Rio and have the situtation in Libya 'resolve itself' before he got back. I'm sure he'd still much prefer this course of inaction.
Occam's got a point: What can we expect out of the rebels should they win? 1) Islamic Republic of Libya? Yeah, that'd be great, wouldn't it? One of the rebel 'leaders' seems to be a former Gitmo detainee. 2) Libya is divided into tribes, Ghadafi is the leader of one of them and the rest would love to revenge themselves on that entire tribe for decades of abuse. The next 'government' may well be a dictatorship led by a leader of one of these tribes. 3) Liberal Democracy. Yeah right, pipe dream. Odds of this happening are none, zero, zip, nada.
So, what's the point?
NoLib| 3.17.11 @ 7:29PM
Word is this is Hillary's doing.
Aarradin| 3.17.11 @ 9:35PM
I wonder which airforce she was planning on using to carry this out?
Can't see the Euroweenies doing this on their own. At a minimum they'd want us to go in first to take down the Libyan air defenses. For us to go in, we'd need at least an AUMF from Congress, which might be difficult to obtain. More importantly, you'd need an actual decision from Obama. Good luck! In any case, it all seems to be too little too late.
Does anyone seriously believe Obama wants regime change in Libya? Ghadafi is a Deity in O's Pantheon, right up there with Castro, Chavez and Che. His High Priests Wright and Farrakhan have preached Ghadafi's virtues to a receptive Obama for decades.
NoLib| 3.17.11 @ 10:21PM
I think Hillary threatened to quit as SOS to force the issue. No way no how Obama wanted to get rid of his buddy, Gaddafi. Why is his name spelled so many different ways? Everyone spells it differently. Weird.
Warrior | 3.17.11 @ 9:26PM
They are deliberately bypassing congress. I wonder if Boehner will stop complaining about the TEA Party long enough to notice.
hook| 3.17.11 @ 7:36PM
Good insight Mr. Tabin however, I think Gadaffi could be toppled if we had started sooner. On the other hand is what would replace him better?
I do not have Much confidence in Arab Democracy taking hold.
Occam's Tool| 3.17.11 @ 7:43PM
Thank you for the compliment. Debbie Schlussel, who I deeply admire (although I don't always agree...), made this point. If one is intervening, one should have an idea of the outcome. Except for Israel, every country in the ME is pond scum.
C Bowen| 3.17.11 @ 8:02PM
Is there a Congressional bill floating around declaring war against Libya? Isn't that the question a serious conservative site should be asking?
I realize the Traitorcons see the Constitution differently, but on AmSpec, I thought keeping up appearances was prime directive.
NoLib| 3.17.11 @ 8:19PM
"Traitorcons?" Wow. Point out one comment that cheerleads for war. Did you even read one single post before you spouted off?
I really don't get you, Bowen.
C Bowen| 3.17.11 @ 8:40PM
You missed the core point; the blogger named two well known routinely pro-war, any way cheerleaders in Max Boot and Bill Kristol, and stated that the US will be at war with Libya soon if not already.
Where is the post, on this alleged conservative site, regarding the Congressional duty to Declare War? As Max and Bill didn't bring it up, we can assume they don't care, no?
NoLib| 3.17.11 @ 8:52PM
I didn't know whom you were calling traitorcons.
I'm not a traitor.
Warrior | 3.17.11 @ 9:28PM
It seems many of the AmSpec writers are prepared for any Fairness Doctrine that may be implemented. They seem to be routinely moving further away from the right.
Sheila| 3.18.11 @ 10:49AM
This has been blatantly evident for months now; only a handful of the right-liberal readers here are just beginning to take note.
NoLib| 3.18.11 @ 6:07PM
I don't know where you've been; a lot of bloggers have been arguing with AmSpec writers for months now.
Lullabys, Legends and Lies| 3.17.11 @ 9:16PM
I know I'm hoping against hope here, but I really hope that July in Tripoli, is not as hot as July in Baghdad (been there, done that). Tripoli is pretty close to the Mediterranean Sea isn't it? So maybe it gets a nice breeze that keeps it from hitting 120 degrees every single damn afternoon in the summer? Nah, I couldn't be that lucky!! And I was really looking forward to seeing the Yankees at their new stadium this year too, but hey, why not start another War instead? The 1% of us who keep going over there aren't too tired yet of going on another tour to the Middle East, so why the hell not?
No, I'm not heading there today (in case you were wondering), no orders yet, but then again this resolution just went down today and the paperwork takes awhile to print out, I'm just being sarcastic. But seriously, how long do you think it's going to take before we need troops on the ground, once we start blowing crap up? Not long!! You break it, you bought it!! I really hope Tripoli gets a nice breeze in the afternoon though, I really, really do!!
NoLib| 3.17.11 @ 10:10PM
You guys are exhausted, and so are your poor families. Forget it--you've already done too much.
Thanks so much for your service, LLL.
Occam's Tool| 3.18.11 @ 12:36AM
May I just add my "ditto."
Trying to bring Democracy to the ME is like trying to teach a dog to sing. I have no problem with killing Saddam and destroying the Taliban---but nation building with vermin is a painfully futile activity.
Floyd Looney| 3.17.11 @ 9:50PM
Did Congress authorize anything??
Because if the President does anything with the say so of Congress, he should be impeached immediately.
There is no reason for the US to be involved, none.
Yosemeti Sam| 3.17.11 @ 10:50PM
Um, you don't think BHO thinks he is somehow - Lawrence of Arabia?
Trying to bring Democratic HARMONY amongst the Arabs?
LOL.
jharp| 3.17.11 @ 11:05PM
"There's no doubt that, as I argued yesterday, the cost/benefit analysis of this course of action has gotten significantly less favorable as the Obama administration has dithered for weeks."
And you are an unbelievable *sshole.
Since the last two, Iraq and Afghanistan, have turned out so well it is of utmost urgency that we rush right in.
God you people are stupid.
Sam| 3.17.11 @ 11:48PM
Obama's complete incompetence has cost us victories in both wars, but don't let facts get in the way of your delusions, libtard.
Occam's Tool| 3.18.11 @ 12:33AM
Again, that's not the reason for delay. The reason for delay on this one is that both sides are swine. That being said, if we're not going to do anything, annoying Q was dumb.
jharp| 3.18.11 @ 12:40AM
Occam, please quit be such a dumbsh*t and phony.
You nor I have any idea, none whatsoever, what the best course of action is.
You effing retards still think and are trying to sell your idiot followers that ObamaCare is government run health insurance.
You and your ilk are frauds.
God your followers are stupid.
NoLib| 3.18.11 @ 2:38AM
Unfortunately for you, Big Government Bozo, we have convinced the country that ObamaCare is government run health insurance. I love the sweet smell of success.
We don't want no stinkin' "Death Panels" harpy.
That one stung didn't it? I love that Sarah Palin, she's as true as the North Star.
jharp| 3.18.11 @ 11:41AM
Rarely, if ever, do you jackasses admit that your messages are lies.
It is refreshing to see you openly admit it.
Thanks.
Occam's Tool| 3.18.11 @ 12:47PM
Actually, JHarp, Obama Care is designed to lead to government run healthcare. I'm an expert in that---it's a disaster.
jharp| 3.18.11 @ 2:53PM
Yeah right, a disaster.
One can no longer be denied coverage due to a pre existing condition, insurers can't rescind your policy after you get sick, and insurers have to pay out 80% of their revenues on caring for the sick.
A real disaster.
God you people are stupid.
NoLib| 3.18.11 @ 6:04PM
The profit margin for insurance companies is low compared to other industries. Of course, you want them to work as slaves so you get it for free, scumbag Marxist.
jharp| 3.18.11 @ 2:55PM
You are a complete buffoon.
Hopefully it does lead to Medicare for all. And that is called a single payer you idiot. Not government run healthcare.
God you people are stupid.
NoLib| 3.18.11 @ 3:56PM
That's healthcare administered by the government, you idiot. There's nothing private about it. And it sucks too. Like you.
jharp| 3.18.11 @ 4:07PM
No it is not you effing idiot.
It's called a single payer. And every other modern country in the world uses some form of it except the U.K.. The doctors are in private practice as are the nurses and everyone on else down the line.
And all of them deliver the same level of care as us for 1/3 to 1/2 of the cost.
God you people are stupid.
NoLib| 3.18.11 @ 5:58PM
It's healthcare administered by the government and you know it, stupid. Stop lying. And stop the BS about socialized health care being superior to ours--IT'S NOT!!
I've read so many horror stories about socialized medicine I could heave. The government screws up the Post Office and the DMV, why would you want them involved in your health care, moron?
Talk about stupid.
NoLib| 3.18.11 @ 12:50PM
Poor harpy, as usual, you miss the point; Sarah's message was the truth, a perfect bulls-eye you might say. And all of you hapless fools on the Left know it.
Thank you, Sarah.
jharp| 3.18.11 @ 4:09PM
Yeah, the right wingers are flocking to support Palin to show their thanks.
Please continue. Please.
God you people are stupid.
NoLib| 3.18.11 @ 6:01PM
Don't you worry about Sarah, she'll be okay.
Thanks for your concern though.
jharp| 3.18.11 @ 7:01PM
I haven't the slightest worries for Palin.
She hauled in at least $10-20 million of you ignorant rednecks money in the past year or so.
I think she'll be just fine. Damn good thing we cut her taxes by 3%. You know. That John Galt thing and all.
God you people are stupid.
NoLib| 3.18.11 @ 7:40PM
We didn't cut taxes we just prevented another tax hike you morons tried to levy on the job creators. How's that stubborn 10% unemployment workin' out for you stupid commies?
Occam's Tool| 3.18.11 @ 12:45PM
I have both Clint and JHarp pissed at me. Well, Clint is rabid, so he'll always be pissed.
JHarp, we are discussing Libya, not ObamaCare.
Actually, I do have a reasonable course of action---the course of action now is to STFU and let events unfold. Obama's problem was that he went with trying to get Q out. Myself, I feel that the rebels COULD be worse.
Occam's Tool| 3.18.11 @ 12:50PM
I'm no fraud, JHarp. I'm an "Israelfirter" Tooljob.
JP| 3.18.11 @ 8:18AM
If it is so obvious, why hasn't the President acted?
PhilTheCapitalistPig| 3.18.11 @ 11:19AM
Last time I checked Iraq is having free elections and they don't have a dictator who massacres his own people. Just sayin'.
The One Who Runs Like a Duck| 3.17.11 @ 11:41PM
The noose is tightening around Qaddafi, Jharp. In between my final four selections and golf I have personally came with a strategy that will baffle Libya. It is the rope a dope strategy. He won't know what hit him in the later rounds. I guess that a lot of Libyans died in the early rounds but like you they were willing to do anything for me. By the way Iraq is my gift to world according to my vice president and Afghanistan is the good war. My terror strategy involves locking up man caused disaster providers indefinitely at Gitmo. Sometimes we do rendition, sometimes we do harsh interrogation, and they can always look forward to a military tribunal. Over in Pakistan we just blow people up with warrentless predator drones. Really you made this possible by voting for me so the American people should thank you. Remember we may be listening to your telephone calls or maybe monitoring you internet activity. High speed rail to hell, baby.
jharp| 3.18.11 @ 12:33AM
Got it.
Good post. TAS donors should be proud to be funding such genius.
Dee See| 3.18.11 @ 1:15AM
"The US has one final task before it itself
is collapsed and RED China is brought in as
'world enforcer' ---and that's to 'bring in'
(i.e. franchise slums) the recalcitrant Middle
East."
-ALAN WATT
(undeniable online listening)
As stealth integration proceeds here with
Janet Napolitano secretly signing agreements
down in Mexico last November essentially
giving trusted traveller cards (de facto Green cards) --to 80 MILLION Mexicans-----
The set-yp tyrant Khaddafi meets those
EUGENICS-eyed, Oxford accented 'rebel
leaders' scenario really is a bit too obvious.
Someone tell the Tavistock Institute they're
losing the touch that enabled them to subvert
our own culture these past 6 decades.
-THANKS!
David Murtagh| 3.18.11 @ 5:39AM
Just because you don't agree with a regime it does not justify attacking it. The world has been there too many times before. If a group of pomms decided to take up arms against the USA would the USA just hand over power to them? I doubt it. Would that repression justify them organinsing an invasion force to support them? Wake up! This is a crap excuse to get rid of people that you don't like. Politicians are spoilt brats who always expect to get their own way. Watch Farenheit 9/11 again and wake up
A conservative voter| 3.18.11 @ 7:54AM
I don't agree with Bill Kristol. Obama's foreign policy has failed. It is too late. Obama is not getting the job done.
PhilTheCapitalistPig| 3.18.11 @ 11:21AM
You mean spitting in the face of our allies and praising/appeasing our enemies is a bad foreign policy? Who woulda thunk?
Jimmy Carter foreign policy, part duex.
JP| 3.18.11 @ 8:01AM
Too little, too late. The field marshall of Lybia lives to fight another day. It took the UN 3 weeks to authorize the No-Fly Zone. The problem is this: Syria has been flying the fighter bombers. And the President, like Bush, is determined to have better relations with the Baathists in Syria.
Another probelm is, what if the No Fly Zone fails? Do we (the UN, NATO) then arm the rebels? Do we send in "UN Peacekeeprs" (yeah, right)? If the goal is taking out the Lybian Nero, why not dispatch a few Green Jackets or Marine Snipers? Failing that, a daisy cutter should get the job done.
This is truly a theatre of the absurd.
Mike | 3.18.11 @ 9:16AM
In the middle of debating how we are going to deal with our deficits and debts and trying to wind down two long and costly wars, some want to jump into another middle east conflagration with nary a word about cost (to say nothing about an exit strategy).
Why not let the Arab League lead, pay for and execute a no fly, no drive zone? Why not let the Arab League put together a coalition of the willing (preferably without the U.S. or with the U.S.being far in the background)?
It appears to me that the current administration is trying to engineer something like this. If successful will the administration get any credit for leadership?
Probably not from TAS. The lead on this issue is John Tabin who criticizes the president for the lack of leadership in articulating and executing a policy about which John, in his own words, takes this position: "And while I feel like I'm supposed to have a firm opinion on matters of war and peace, I can't help but hedge."
Instead of taking gratuitous swipes at the president, John, why don't you address the questions posed by George Will. You would educate yourself and your readers by engaging in that kind of cost-benefit analysis.
Occam's Tool| 3.18.11 @ 12:49PM
There will be no Arab League intervention, Mike. The whole thing will be a sorry mess, and Q will be back in power with fewer restraints. The correct move would have been either to a) shit, or b) get off the pot. 'Bama chose c. There is no c.
Mike | 3.18.11 @ 1:52PM
Must be awesome to be omniscient, Occam.
westie| 3.18.11 @ 9:54AM
Just go ahead and appropriate all the oil, we've paid for it many times over. Let's then bury the War on Poverty aka Social Justice, the War on Drugs...etc, etc. they are paid in full too.
NoLib| 3.18.11 @ 12:53PM
Short but sweet.
Too Many Tims| 3.18.11 @ 10:17AM
Obama's announced his basketball picks and is on junket to Latin America. I pity our troops that will go into harm's way under his leadership. They'll all be wearing blue hats and taking orders from French Admirals.
Smirking Weasel| 3.18.11 @ 2:07PM
Then they shouldn't go into harms' way.
Walk away, and actually do something
for America.
ole red| 3.18.11 @ 12:39PM
Well, now that the UN has authorized action in Libya, I'd like to hear Obama say "SO WHAT? Where will the UN get the men and guns to undertake "appropriate" action?" This is a perfect opportunity to show the UN for the empty bag of gas it is, and to show the utter fecklessness of the EU countries while we are at it. We will rue the day we raise a finger in Libya, as I think most of us do about the "nationbuilding" fiasco in Iraq and Afghanistan. We need to understand one thing that, so far, seems to elude our politicos and our blabbering class: Arabs understand and respect one thing--massive force. They don't understand all this blather about "democracy".
ole red| 3.18.11 @ 12:56PM
One further comment, re the efficacy of air power: Standing alone, it never achieves victory; it always rquires ground forces. We bombed Germany to rubble; it slowed but did not stop their capacity to wage a protracted war. We unleashed more bombs on Vietnam than we dropped in WWII, and we had gunships patrolling the Ho Chi Minh trail nightly. It didn't stop the North Vietnamese from infiltrating men and supplies, and eventually we literally fled the country.. If air wars toppled governments, we would have been able to topple Hussein without sending in troops---but we have had troops in Iraq for 8 years now, still fighting the same losing battles over and over. We will eventually leave Iraq, and after all the blood and destruction, it will devolve to an Islamist state,, with all the mindless brutality of the regime we toppled and more.
Smirking Weasel| 3.18.11 @ 2:06PM
Billy Kristol AND Max Boot as sources?
The ultimate in treasonous chickenhawk
blowhards. The only patriotic response is...
Go, Moamar, go.