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How Romney Could Survive the Health Care Issue

By Philip Klein on 3.7.11 @ 2:33PM

Regular readers know that I'm not shy about criticizing Mitt Romney, particularly for his role in designing and enacting a health care program in Massuchusetts that served as a model for ObamaCare. Jim made some good points earlier about why it will be such a difficult political problem to overcome, and I agree. But the question I'd like to focus on is: what would have to happen for Romney to win the nomination despite the health care issue? The simple truth is that Romney will never win over skeptics, so his best hope is merely to survive the issue.

The closest parallel I can think of is the way John McCain was able to survive his immigration stance and multiple deviations from conservatism to capture the nomination in 2008. What basically happened was that McCain's candidacy looked dead in the summer of 2007 when the immigration issue peaked, but then by fall the Petraeus-Crocker hearings started, and the debate shifted to Iraq -- where McCain was much closer to GOP primary voters. When immigration came up, he said he learned his lesson that people wanted the borders secured first. At the same time, the rest of the field collapsed. Rudy totally imploded and Fred Thompson never took off. Mike Huckabee's surge in Iowa was enough to weaken Romney, but not enough to gain him support beyond his core constituency. So, in the end, McCain survived.

There are a number of reasons why Romney is in a different boat this time around. In McCain's case, once the immigration bill died, conservative intensity on the issue waned. However, ObamaCare already passed, and conservative outrage over it continues. Each time another court delivers a verdict on one of the legal challenges, it will bring back the issue of the individual mandate -- and Romney's long support for it in principle, even though the constitutional issues differ at the state level. The Tea Parties also weren't around in 2008, and they won't be a receptive audience for Romney's defenses.

That said, Romney, like McCain, benefits from the fact that it's a wide open field without a real frontrunner in which all the candidates have weaknesses. Let's say Mike Huckabee and Sarah Palin either don't run, or are unable to appeal to a broad enough coalition of voters beyond their loyal fan base. That Haley Barbour's lobbying background turns out to be as fatal as his critics suggest. That Newt Gingrich can't overcome his personal baggage as well as his own deviations from conservatives. That Tim Pawlenty gets hammered for stuff he said and did when he had a profile as a moderate, and that he's just unable to connect with people. And imagine that nobody else emerges. On top of that, let's say the economy sinks deeper, and business experience becomes more valued by voters. All of the above scenarios are perfectly plausible. In such an environment, you can see how Romney can survive as the last man standing by vowing to repeal ObamaCare, even as most conservatives still find it difficult to forgive him. Keep in mind, too, that he'll have enough money to remain in the race for as long as he needs to.

To be clear, I'm not predicting that this will happen, but only that this is what would have to happen for Romney to win, and it isn't totally inconceivable.

View all comments (22) | Leave a comment

Rick V.| 3.7.11 @ 2:43PM

"All of the above scenarios are perfectly plausible." As is the outcome equally predictable, as it was in 2008. Good Lord, how depressing.

Rogue Elephant| 3.7.11 @ 2:59PM

Yes, so Romney could pull a McCain. MCCAIN LOST, due, in part, to his unpopularity with actual conservatives.

Now boarding, all rows and seats, for non-stop flight to cloud cuckoo land!

jharp| 3.7.11 @ 2:47PM

Yeah but how's he gonna survive the whole Garden of Eden was in Missouri thing?

Hilarious. A cult follower is the best you can come up with. The American Taliban ain't gonna buy that no way no how.

And you know it.

Bill Hussein O'Stalin| 3.7.11 @ 2:48PM

Romney can best Obama. The question is, what then? His business acumen will be hard to beat. America is looking for a winner now, and Romney could be socially damaged but survivable. All the fools who voted for Obama last time need an out and someone like Romney could be it.

I think Romney has the brainpower to make things happen. He has some liberal tendencies but I don't think they are as fatal as many of the others.

Rogue Elephant| 3.7.11 @ 3:09PM

ROMNEY CAN'T WIN. He will lose the Tea Party vote because he supports:
1) The Obamacare individual mandate and
2) Cap-and-trade
If Romney has so much brainpower why did he support these things?

A more important question than "Can Romney survive the healthcare issue?" is "Can the GOP and America survive Romney?"

Patriot| 3.7.11 @ 5:58PM

Great post--thank you.

Troy| 3.8.11 @ 12:36AM

Romney opposes cap-and-trade and rejects Obamacare. Stop spreading your propaganda!

Patriot| 3.8.11 @ 1:48AM

RomneyCare is ObamaCare, dummy.

Robbyshankar| 3.7.11 @ 3:18PM

What is described above will most likely happen. Palin is a non-starter and Huckabee won't last long. Romney's only real competition is Mitch Daniels, and while he has a great record, he lacks the charisma to garner the necessary amount of votes. Romney will remain the last man standing. If the economy is still bad and unemployment is still above 8.5%, he will be the next president, and he will repeal Obamacare, just like he promised to do.

Rogue Elephant| 3.7.11 @ 3:26PM

I'm reminded of George H.W. Bush's famous words, "Read my lips, no new taxes". Campaign promises (snort)!

Romney won't repeal Obamacare because HE WILL LOSE.

Boston12GS| 3.7.11 @ 3:22PM

How does Romney overcome the legacy of RomneyCare?

Easy--the same way anyone overcomes the legacy of a huge, horrible mistake, whether it be cheating on a spouse, or crushing the working families of Massachusetts with unbearable health care costs:

They apologize--not just "I'm sorry", but in depth, acknowledging that the recognize the bad consequences of their mistake.

Here's something that might work:

"My fellow Americans,

As you know, I am seriously considering becoming a candidate in the 2012 Presidential election. OK, OK, I _AM_ a candidate in the 2012 Presidential election, let's get that out of the way at the start.

I understand, however, that there exists a particular issue that makes it difficult for many of you, who might otherwise favor my candidacy, to support me in my effort to be President. That issue is what has come to be known as RomneyCare, my signing of the health care reform bill in Massachusetts. As you know, this was the very legislation that used as the template for ObamaCare in the nation.

ObamaCare, since it's brute force passage last year, has become perhaps the single most hated piece of legislation to be foisted upon the working families of this country. In recent weeks, the House of Representatives has voted to repeal ObamaCare, and numerous federal courts have found its individual mandate to be unconstitutional. For many of you, there is no single issue that more strongly represents your desire to replace Obama than does ObamaCare.

So how, you ask, can you support for President a candidate who essentially passed the equivalent of ObamaCare on the state level? Sure, perhaps RomneyCare avoids the particularly Constitutional problems of ObamaCare, but it still bears all the fundamental practical economic weaknesses of ObamaCare--indeed, RomneyCare has resulted in Massachusetts working families now bearing by far the highest health insurance costs of the nation, longer wait times for medical care, and is overrunning projected costs to the Commonwealth by billions of dollars.

So you ask, Mitt, you signed RomneyCare, you apparently think this kind of top-down mandated intervention is a good thing. Given that you believe that to be so, why should we believe that you will repeal ObamaCare?

I'm here today to tell you why.

I will repeal ObamaCare not DESPITE my previous support for similar legislation, but precisely BECAUSE of that support.

I signed RomneyCare with the best of intentions, and believing that it would be in the best interests of the citizens of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. I've learned a great deal since that signing ceremony, however. I've learned how ruthlessly a legislature can add costs and regulation onto a bill even after it has been signed into law.

Much more important, however, I've seen what happens when a reasonably sounding concept like "individual mandate" is applied in the real world. I've seen how it results in crushingly high health insurance costs for middle-class families. I've seen how it leads doctors to stop taking on new patients, and for waiting times for care to stretch from days to weeks to months. I've seen how it forces more and more citizens onto the Medicaid rolls, further undermining the free market for health care services that has led the US to have the world's most sophisticated health care. And I've seen how this massive shift to Medicaid has added billions to the state's budget--what would surely be trillions on a national scale.

In short, having watched RomneyCare applied in the real world, I see that it has been an unmitigated disaster even just on the scale of a single state, and that it would be a catastrophe of unimaginable proportions if applied on a national scale.

That's why you can trust me to repeal ObamaCare. Because I was responsible for making a similarly bad decision on a smaller scale. The difference between me and the current President, is that my mistake was much less in degree, and that I've learned from the error.

Thank you for your time."

Rogue Elephant| 3.7.11 @ 3:31PM

Oh, you just figured out that government meddling raises costs? My! What brainpower! (But, at least you apologized for your dismal track record of wreaking economic havoc on the private sector!)

Now, explain away his support for cap-and-trade!

Boston12GS| 3.7.11 @ 3:35PM

The only thing that saves Mitt from cap-and-trade is that the green's have fallen so deep into the septic tank that it's become a dead issue. NO ONE but the fringest of the left, are going to even mention cap-and-trade moving forward, and it has no realistic chance of passage, so from a PRACTICAL political perspective it's a non-issue.

Yes, you can argue (quite correctly) that supporting it was poor judgment on Mitt's part, but the issue is substantively different than health care in that ObamaCare is still very much a matter that must be addressed.

Incidentally, I'm not a Mitt apologist, and I certainly don't think he's the world's greatest gift to anything. I was merely pointing out that he's going to need to do a lot more than say, "What, sure, sure, I'll repeal ObamaCare, just as soon as you elect me," in order for the RomneyCare issue to come anywhere close to being resolved.

MEA CULPA, MEA CULPA, MEA MAXIMA CULPA--that's what Romney needs to do re: RomneyCare.

Patriot| 3.7.11 @ 5:55PM

Boston, Romney's untrustworthy, a big- government hack like Obama! Romney will say and do anything to become POTUS. No thank you.

I'm tired of liars, and I won't vote for one.

Boston12GS| 3.7.11 @ 3:31PM

"P.S. My most sincere apologies to the working families of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts who are now having to live under this huge steaming pile of health care defecation I left them with. In compensation for my poor judgment, I offer each of them a refund for all incurred increases in health care costs, to be paid from my "Mitt for President" campaign fund. "

[Yes, that last is satire. But heart-felt satire.]

wodiej| 3.7.11 @ 5:13PM

Only an egotist would run a second time when he was rejected the first time.

Troy| 3.8.11 @ 12:38AM

Like Reagan?
McCain?
Dole?
Nixon?

Learn some history...

Patriot| 3.8.11 @ 1:49AM

Please don't compare Myth to Ronald Reagan--it's truly sickening.

Patriot| 3.7.11 @ 5:38PM

Myth has more problems than just RomneyCare--he's not trustworthy.

PhilTheCapitalistPig| 3.8.11 @ 2:22PM

Agreed!

SOF| 3.7.11 @ 11:27PM

Interesting take, PK, but immigration was far less defining than healthcare is now. Saw a WaPo article that compared Romney's situation to that of Hillary and Iraq and it seemed pretty on point. Iraq was the animating issue for Ds that helped O and hurt her. Healthcare will be more damaging to Mitt than immigration was to McCain because it is O's defining issue and it looks close enough to Mitt's position.

Dan| 3.8.11 @ 12:51AM

"The Obama Misery Index and the Rise of Obamavilles" is the best blog post I've read in a long time. This is why President Obama will be a one-term president! http://t.co/hhFr73z

I can't recommend this piece highly enough. This will be all the ammo we'll need when talking to other voters during the 2012 general election.