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A Frontrunner-less Field?

By W. James Antle, III on 3.7.11 @ 4:49PM

According to the latest Gallup poll, I don't need to worry about frontrunner failure because there is no real frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination. Nobody is getting more than 18 percent of the vote, Mike Huckabee is actually the guy with the plurality, and when the margin of error is factored in it is actually a three-way tie for the lead. This is probably the best shot somebody polling at 3-5 percent even this far out has at winning the GOP nomination since George Bush went from being an asterik candidate to the second-place finisher behind Ronald Reagan in 1980.

That being said, I think you can still call Romney the prohibitive frontrunner because he is already clearly running and it is not certain that either Huckabee or Sarah Palin will get into the race. Without Huckabee or Palin, Romney looks a lot more like a traditional frontrunner. And he already looks a lot to me like John McCain last time around. (Though if we go by popular vote, Huckabee was the second-place finisher last time and should win this time because it's his turn.)

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wodiej| 3.7.11 @ 5:08PM

(Though if we go by popular vote, Huckabee was the second-place finisher last time and should win this time because it's his turn.)

LOL...good grief, surely conservatives have finally been schooled on what defines leadership. It isn't Huck or Mittens.

PCC| 3.7.11 @ 5:18PM

Mike Huckabee is a weak candidate, and if I were a betting man, I'd wager he won't even enter the race.

Firstly, he's a little bit of a laughingstock. Last time around, he distinguished himself as the first presidential candidate whose principal motivation for running was to increase his salary. Well, at Fox, he's undoubtedly done that, and he will be reluctant to give that up.

Secondly, Huckabee comes across as a snake oil salesman. In a creepy but undeniable way, his insincere mannerisms are Nixonian in nature. Such a basic flaw may be overlooked in Arkansas, but nationally that dog won't hunt.

If the candidate gives the impression that even he doesn't believe what he's saying, then it's really not very important what his positions are.

Besides, the U.S. will never elect a president named Huckabee. He might as well be named Goober.

Boston12GS| 3.7.11 @ 6:07PM

I don't really know anything substantive about Huckabee, but have just seen him interviewed on Fox a couple of times. PCC's perception is exactly mine. He seems insincere, in a "Shucks, I'm just here to help ya'" kind of talk in the living room while his buddies are emptying out your garage.

He may well be a totally honest guy, but that's the perception he creates in me. It's just a little creepy--just a little bit. Not Ted Kennedy creepy or even Barney Frank creepy, but creepier than I'd like to vote for.