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The Spectacle Blog
Many observers are arguing that instability in Egypt and the Middle East could cut against U.S. and Israeli interests in the region over the short term, but will contribute to an opening of those societies that will ultimately be better for U.S. and Israeli interests than the stability of authoritarian governments. It still remains to be seen whether what is true in theory will in fact be true in practice, but I am inclined to agree that over the long term that is probably true. Here are my questions, however: How long is the long term? And could things get so bad in the short to medium term that hoping for long-term changes may veer dangerously close to wishful thinking? My point isn’t that anyone knows the answers to these questions; it is simply that they seem to be important questions to ask before celebrating the new instability.
View all comments (10) | Leave a comment
More Blog Posts by W. James Antle, III
http://spectator.org/blog/2011/02/17/long-term-vs-short-term
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Ken (Old Texican)| 2.17.11 @ 3:31PM
Third, Texican Sixth here.
My newest bestseller is going to walk you through this mess. Keep your eyes peeled for it. The ironic thing is that I had to write it anonymously, and my reviewers are having to review it anonymously. Heh!
The "long term" is Jesus coming again. "Even so Lord, come quickly."
martin j smith| 2.17.11 @ 3:42PM
There is little that the US can do in regard to any kind of influence in Egypt. If we had some grown ups in charge--I would say this: Verbalize the hope for a real Democratic revolution which included such things as allowing political parties to debate,free speech,press, women's rights, gay rights ( yep you heard me ) etc but be prepared to fall on deaf ears.
Be prepared for an enemy state.
Look at attacks on reporters as a very bad sign and state publicly that these are unacceptable behaviors in a civilized world.
Occam's Tool| 2.17.11 @ 4:03PM
Hmmm....I'm not so sure that the "long-term" outcome of the Iranian revolution against a Dictatorial Shah (who was pro-US and Israel) was a good thing for the US. I tend to doubt a favorable outcome with Egypt, either.
"I see a Bad Moon Rising..."
bobmontgomery| 2.17.11 @ 5:00PM
I agree, OT, just based on history. Now, if the short term is between now and Nov., 2012, and a consortium of dedicated entities starts making clear within the next year what their intentions are with regards to restoring civility in the Middle East come 2013, then whatever pockets of sanity remain there might be encouraged to maintain themselves and prepare for a real "Morning in the Middle East." I wish I could start hearing some talk along those lines.
Dixie Pixie| 2.17.11 @ 7:01PM
In the long run consider the Poem of Ozymandias by Shelly.
In the short run consider anything made by mankind is by definition artificial.
Governmental organizations are constructed of humans and therefore the most artificial of all.
Since the human material is Muslim then the government will be Muslin.
Bob K.| 2.18.11 @ 8:48AM
Well said!
Ken (Old Texican)| 2.17.11 @ 7:13PM
Pixie,
May I plagerize that? (sic)
Dixie Pixie| 2.17.11 @ 11:20PM
Greetings Ken
Done and Done!
Go forth and use it as you will with my blessings.
Rich Rostrom| 2.17.11 @ 11:56PM
Recent conditions are pretty bad. Egypt was controlled by a thief and thug who quietly promoted anti-semitism and anti-Americanism, so that he could pose as the safer alternative to the radicalism he incited.
Syria was and is controlled by thieves, thugs, and murderers implacably hostile to the U.S.
Thugs allied with Syria are taking over Lebanon.
Libya is ruled by Qaddafi.
Iran is controlled by the ayatollahs and their thugs.
Without something to shake things up, none of these conditions can get any better, and the present shake-up is challenging the regimes in Libya, Syria, and Iran.
Now if only the Fool-in-Chief can wake up and see what he should be doing...
And Egypt has been sliding toward the abyss for years. It is an economic basket case, importing most of its food.
Bob K.| 2.18.11 @ 9:00AM
It is not necessary to "promote" anti-semitism in the Near East. It is necessary not to discourage it in order to stay in power; indeed, to stay alive!
Syria is controlled by Alawites. A minority Muslim sect comprising about 15% of the population and which also controls the military. Their primary worry is also staying alive.