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The Spectacle Blog
John Tabin provides a sharp and well-informed analysis of the Obama administration’s manifest failures vis-à-vis Egypt. But one question that must be answered — because it is distorting our collective understanding of how the United States should respond — is this: What should President Obama have done differently, and what must he now do?
As I mentioned yesterday here at AmSpec, Obama should have announced, both publicly and privately, that while Mubarak has been a great American ally, his time has passed; and he must, therefore, leave office.
At the same time, Obama should have conditioned continued U.S. aid to Egypt upon the peaceful resolution of the situation there. That is, he should have said — and can say still — that Egypt will not receive another dime from the United States unless Egyptian blood is spared and until the situation there is resolved peacefully.
This would have sent a clear and unmistakable message to Egypt’s most important institution, the Egyptian military. To wit: that not only must the Egyptian military refrain from instigating violence; it also must actively prevent bloodshed and keep the peace.
Given that the Egyptian military receives more than $1.3 billion annually in U.S. aid and assistance, this would have been a powerful inducement to ensure that the protests in Egypt remained peaceful.
Certainly, an American pledge to cut off aid would have helped to stop Mubarak from unleashing violent, paid thugs into the streets of Cairo. In fact, had Obama acted more quickly, less ambiguously and more resolutely than he has thus far, the violence that began yesterday might well have been averted.
Obama, then, has missed a crucial and fleeting opportunity.
However, it is still not too late for him to do the right thing in
order to prevent further violence.
Yet too many analysts and politicians, on both the Left and the
Right, continue to make excuses for Obama. “He has to walk a fine
line,” they say. “He can’t risk alienating Mubarak.”
“If he dumps Mubarak, that will frighten our other key allies in the region who have less-than-savory records.” “He should privately urge Mubarak to leave, but be much more circumspect in public.”
Nonsense. Obama doesn’t have a fine line to walk. His choice is clear, not complicated. And it is to stand, visibly and publicly, with the forces of freedom and democracy, not the forces of repression and autocracy.
Mubarak is 82 years old. He knows he has no future in Egypt. And he’s benefited for 30 years from steadfast American support. He hardly can be surprised, then, that the United States is looking past him, with the aim of engaging Egypt’s new and future leaders.
In short, we don’t owe Mubarak anything. Our debt to him has been well paid, literally and figuratively, for more than three decades.
As for our other autocratic allies in the Middle East and elsewhere, they should be put on notice: If they do not begin to institute democratic reforms that result in more representative governments and more open societies, then they may soon find themselves ushered away by history-changing events similar to those now playing out in Egypt.
And the reason for this is not the United States; the reason is their own people: They expect and demand better. Everyone knows this; so there is no harm if Obama says this.
In fact, it is helpful when the President of the United States publicly champions liberal democracy and prods countries to reform. Autocracies are inherently unstable, after all. And so, the time for repressive and illiberal regimes to change and to liberalize is before a crisis strikes.
Indeed, that’s the lesson that is now being learned in Egypt. Obama, as Tabin notes, has been late and tardy to history. However, he still has time to align and focus American foreign policy. And he must do so now.
View all comments (21) | Leave a comment
More Blog Posts by John R. Guardiano
http://spectator.org/blog/2011/02/03/obama-must-correct-his-mistake
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Bob Miller| 2.3.11 @ 9:47AM
If a wrong action or inaction comes as a direct consequence of Obama's world-view, should we call it only a "mistake"?
PCC| 2.3.11 @ 11:07AM
Right on, Mr. Guardiano.
Vinny| 2.3.11 @ 11:24AM
They aren't mistakes if they are intentional. Don't assume.
Devasahayam| 2.7.11 @ 2:23PM
I see another who understands the basic truth; thank you brother!
CUFFS| 2.3.11 @ 12:11PM
OOOOOOOOOOh! Does anyone believe the global elite are worried about what the Egyptians want? Why in hell do you think the
next head of state in Egypt will be an "internationalist"--ElDarabei, the UN cronie.
It is sweet to watch the talking heads talk about democracy and freedom; what a joke.
No one has spoken of economics. Thank God
Strauss-Kahn has! He has already stepped up to the plate to offer loans (UN,IMF, World Bank) to a new Egyptian regime--isn't that nice?
Can we all now play connect the dots?
Devasahayam| 2.3.11 @ 12:23PM
One flaw--given that 0bama is about as loyal to America as Vidkun Quisling was to Norway, he does not see it as a mistake!
Red Phillips | 2.3.11 @ 1:07PM
Ha ha. Guess who the democracy fetishists Tabin and Guardiano agree with? George Soros.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/.....05041.html
jharp| 2.3.11 @ 1:11PM
You have no idea what you are talking about.
We have no credibility in the middle east. None. Actually it's worse than none. They hate our guts.
And if you think dangling money in front of them is going to help you are stupid.
Just look at how grateful Iraq is after throwing $3 trillion their way.
God you people are stupid.
simon templar| 2.3.11 @ 4:13PM
In fact they have hated our guts since the inception of this country..Jefferson created the US marines to deal with them after they declared jihad war on the newly formed United States. They have been waging war against the west since 600 A.D. The ignorance abounds. Most westerners do not even know that they already conquered most of the Roman European empire in 600 ad and held it under sharia law for nearly 700 years. This history was written out of our history books..remember the "Moors."
Honolulu Dude| 2.3.11 @ 4:21PM
No, it's "Moops."
PCC| 2.3.11 @ 6:59PM
Mopes?
Honolulu Dude| 2.3.11 @ 8:00PM
Nah, just a funny line from a Seinfeld episode, "Bubble Boy." While playing Trivial Pursuit, the correct answer was 'The Moors.' However there was a typo on the Trivial card and it was printed 'The Moops.' George wouldn't let the bubble boy have it. I have every Seinfeld memorized because my daughter loves it. I also know every line to "The Little Mermaid" thanks again to her! Aloha.
simon templar| 2.3.11 @ 4:05PM
What makes you think he sees them as mistakes? When the hell are the conservative here on this web site going to WAKE up to the FACT that this guy DOES not think nor act in the manner in which you expect but rather on the basis of a completely different and radical paradigm?
jharp| 2.3.11 @ 4:36PM
"the conservative here on this web site going to WAKE up to the FACT that this guy DOES not think nor act in the manner in which you expect"
100% dead on. Conservatives expect the George Bush gut feeling reaction method. And we are all too painfully aware of the catastrophe that ensued.
Thankfully Obama uses reason and thinks things over very carefully.
God conservatives are stupid.
Warrior | 2.3.11 @ 5:27PM
Bush was/is not a conservative. If you believe Obama uses reason and thought you are a moron.
Liberals are totally deranged.
jharp| 2.3.11 @ 8:00PM
"If you believe Obama uses reason and thought you are a moron."
Just look at yourself you idiot.
You might disagree with Obama but he ain't using an Ouija board. That was the last guy.
God you people are stupid.
Warrior | 2.3.11 @ 11:16PM
The great man of thought and reason. Can't speak a sentence without stuttering if the teleprompter isn't handy. Still searching for the seven missing states, wondering how the Queen of England is enjoying her IPod, ready to negotiate with the muslim brotherhood, he's saving large amounts of oil by having all secret service cars use the right air pressure in their tires, we must have the stimulus to keep unemployment below 8%, extension of the Patriot Act, Gitmo still open, Chicago's olympic bid...
Real genius you've hitched your wagon to. The list has quite a few more entries but everyone already understands what a deep thinkers you liberals are.
Sammie Jo| 2.4.11 @ 3:12AM
Unfortunately for us, the inept jug-eared clown is in waaay over his head.
Yosemeti Sam| 2.3.11 @ 10:07PM
" ... Egypt will not receive another dime from the United States unless Egyptian blood is spared and until the situation there is resolved peacefully...."
Um, phone call from President Mubarak to the Saudi family - brothers, can you spare a dime?
Not a far-fetched scenario.
Kevin| 2.3.11 @ 10:32PM
The question is not whrether Mubarak owes the US anything or the US owes Mubarack anything, though for the sake of America's credibility as well as common decency and paying a certain debt it should at least offer him a dignified refuge. The question is how to prevent Obama doing more damage - or, hopefully, how to prevent him doing anything further at all. He is not simply useless and in far beyond his intellectual depth - he is a leaking toxin.