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The Spectacle Blog
Old and weak-minded generals mistakenly fight the last war. Old and weak-minded analysts mistakenly fight the last revolution.
So it is that many conservatives — even many so-called experts — on Fox News and elsewhere, have been impugning the Egyptian revolution with comparisons to the Islamist takeover of Iran in 1979.
This is a wrongheaded and mistaken comparison. And it is causing too many conservatives to withhold their support for the legitimate and democratic aspirations of the Egyptian people.Are there Islamist elements in Egypt? Of course. There are Islamist elements in every Muslim country. But are they the dominant political element there? No.
Do most Egyptians support the Islamists? No.
Is the revolution in Egypt about an Islamist demand for theological purity and an exclusion from Egyptian society of Western influence? Absolutely not.
In fact, quite the opposite: most Egyptians see what we in the West have; and they realize that they have been cheated by their leaders. They realize that Hosni Mubarak’s autocracy has failed them and is woefully inadequate.
Egypt, then, has turned a decisive corner, and there is no going back. Mubarak is history. Egypt’s rising middle class is demanding greater political freedom and economic opportunity.
Mubarak long ago should have been instituting political reforms that allow for a more representative government. That he did not do so is why Egypt is now being rocked by violent protests.
And while Islamist elements may well try to take advantage of the Egyptian revolution, they face one almost insurmountable obstacle: the Egyptian military, a professional force and a nationally respected institution which views itself as the guardians of greater Egypt.
Indeed, the Egyptian military is not dominated by Islamists; and it will not allow Egypt to descend into total anarchy.
In fact, the Egyptian military will play a major role in Egypt’s next government, just as it has ever since the Mamluks of the Middle Ages.
In more recent times (1952), the Egyptian military’s “Free Officers Movement” led a coup d’état that overthrew the monarchy in order to establish a less corrupt and more representative government. One of the young officers involved in that movement: Anwar El Sadat.
Sadat, of course, would go on to become president of Egypt in 1970. And, in 1978, Sadat signed the historic Camp David Peace Accords with Israel.
Egypt’s 1952 revolution also outlawed the Muslim Brotherhood, an Islamist group that stood in violent opposition to Egypt’s new and overtly secular constitution.
In short, within the context of Egyptian and Middle Eastern politics, the Egyptian military is a progressive and modernizing force. And it has always played an important and welcomed role in Egyptian politics. And that role will now be strengthened in light of the political ferment now taking place there.
Democratization, after all, is a long and developing process which includes much more than just elections. Liberal democracy includes, as I mentioned in a piece for the Daily Caller, a whole infrastructure of institutions, customs, laws and societal arrangements which allow democracy to work and to flourish.
These institutions, customs, laws and societal arrangements will takes decades to develop in Egypt. This doesn’t mean that Egypt will have to wait decades to enjoy liberal democracy.
To the contrary: Egypt can and should begin to enjoy a more representative and participatory democracy immediately. But democracy as we know it in the West won’t exist in Egypt for quite some time.
The development of democracy in places such as Taiwan, South Korea, the Philippines, Chile and El Salvador shows conclusively that democratic development is an evolutionary process, and not a revolutionary event (though a revolutionary event can help spur or ignite this evolutionary process).
So what should the United States do? Simple: work closely with the Egyptian military to help promote a peaceful transition to a more democratic form of government there.
Indeed, the last thing the United States should do is abandon Egypt in the same way that President Carter abandoned Iran in 1979. Carter’s abandonment of Iran led to the Islamist takeover there, which is something we don’t want to see happen, obviously, in Egypt.
The chances of an Islamist takeover in Egypt are very slim to begin with; but in a revolutionary situation, of course, anything is possible.
The Obama administration also should swallow its pride and begin to champion President Bush’s “Freedom Agenda,” which recognized that liberal democracy is the great alternative to repression and radicalism.
George W. Bush may have made many mistakes; but on the great issue of our time — liberty versus tyranny — our much-derided 43rd president was an heroic visionary. And conservatives who are running away from his legacy — and many are — ought to be ashamed of themselves.
View all comments (21) | Leave a comment
More Blog Posts by John R. Guardiano
http://spectator.org/blog/2011/01/29/the-egyptian-military-will-sav
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Sean| 1.29.11 @ 1:19PM
"but on the great issue of our time -- liberty versus tyranny -- our much-derided 43rd president was an heroic visionary."
Sorry but he was a complete failure. The issue is liberty versus tyranny at home. The forces for tyranny have made great strides under GWB and Obama.
bobmontgomery| 1.29.11 @ 1:40PM
He ws not a failure. In fact, had he been supported by the US Senate, democracy in the MidEast might have gotten on a faster track. People were ecstatric when they voted in Iraq, as they were in Lebanon. But even if the vision has been sidetracked by Obama's bowing and scraping and denigration of the American example, Bush's vision was not a small one.
JmsA| 1.29.11 @ 1:57PM
Say what you will about Bush's many failings, but at least he removed a tyrant from power, allowing for the possibility of democracy.
tatosian| 1.30.11 @ 12:38AM
Someone want to explain how democracy can take hold in countries (Iraq and Afghanistan for instance) where the constitution requires that laws and legislation be in compliance with Islam and sharia?
John Guardiano | 1.30.11 @ 9:24AM
Tatosian,
Your anti-Islam bigotry is disgusting and I reject it.
Care to explain how the world’s most populous Muslim country, Indonesia, is a democracy? Or how it is that one-third of the world’s Muslims live in south Asia: Pakistan, Bangladesh and India?
These are imperfect democracies, to be sure, but all three countries have elected governments.
Regards,
John
tatosian| 1.30.11 @ 5:03PM
You and yours seem to equate democracy with voting. That's it. If a people can vote then all is well. (Iranians vote. Is Iran a democracy?)
I suppose it's only natural for Americans to project our freedoms and liberties onto the very word democracy.
But, as the occasional jihadi inspired bloodbaths at Mumbai (which Pakistan's [a democracy] intelligence agency is alleged to have orchestrated), Jakarta, Bali, the ongoing violence in Iraq and Afghanistan and the clear and obvious persecution and subjugation of non Muslims in Muslim majority "democracies" (like Egypt) would indicate, our American definition of democracy is not shared by all. (Didn't Egyptians vote during Mubarak's 30 year reign? And wouldn't the current upheaval indicate that your definition of democracy as just voting is inadequate?)
As I've already stated, the Pakistani, Afghani and Iraqi constitutions all base their laws and legislation on Islam and sharia law.
Islam and sharia law do not extend equality or individual liberties and rights to non believers.
How does a democracy exist if minorities are consigned to second class status?
Are you unaware of this Islamic/sharia imposed second class status?
Talk to some Copts or Ahmadis.
Read Coughlin's “To Our Great Detriment: Ignoring What Extremists Say About Jihad"
http://www.carlisle.army.mil/D.....tJihad.pdf
Finally, your inability to acknowledge the intolerance sanctioned by Islam and the deleterious effect that intolerance has on a democratic system makes your rejection of me less than devastating.
And speaking of democracies, are you aware that cair has advised all Muslims in the United States not to give any information about"radicalization" in the Muslim community to the FBI? Will that advice help or hurt our democracy?
Do you reject them too?
Nathan| 1.29.11 @ 2:46PM
I'd like to believe this.....but didn't people use to say the same thing about the TURKISH military?
Clint| 1.29.11 @ 3:02PM
"The officer corps of Egypt’s powerful military has been educated at defense colleges in the United States for 30 years. The Egyptian armed forces have about 1,000 American M1A1 Abrams tanks, which the United States allows to be built on Egyptian soil. Egypt permits the American military to stage major operations from its bases, and has always guaranteed the Americans passage through the Suez Canal."
"A possible successor — and a sign of how closely the military is intertwined with the ruling party — is Omar Suleiman, head of military intelligence, who state media said had been sworn in as the new vice president."
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01.....&src=twrhp
Mimi| 1.29.11 @ 3:12PM
It is times like these ....when there are so many questions, that we need a strong arm manning "OUR " ship of state.
God help us , he allowed the oil rigs to close, it was frivolous and un-necessary.....The price of energy could rise, causing havoc in our own country.
Let us pray that things quiet down...The world doesn't look too good right now.
Occam's Tool| 1.29.11 @ 3:12PM
I certainly hope and pray that the Muslim extremists do not take over. We shall see. I don't trust the NYT evaluation of anything; it is, however, soft and absobent for puppies.
bobmontgomery| 1.29.11 @ 3:35PM
If they do, we are in for dark days. There was a report earlier of Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood comingling and border security breaking down. There needs to be a show of solidarity with Israel by patriots in the US Senate.
Rich Rostrom| 1.29.11 @ 4:58PM
The Iranian army was not Islamist in 1979; it's doubtful that a majority of the people were either. But the Islamists were the best-organized and most vehement element of the opposition. Once the Shah fell, they took charge.
Islamists are present in force in Egypt (the Moslem Brotherhood). Moslem religiosity is a very strong factor in the national culture (vide the mass prayer breaks by the demonstrators).
There is very widespread anger against the regime for its corruption, and much of this anger has been phrased in religious terms.
While the recognized religious authorities in Egypt (such as Al-Azhar) have not been anti-Mubarak, they have been semi-Islamist.
And where the Israel issue was always secondary in Iran, in Egypt it is front and center.
A new "reform" regime that is neither Islamist nor anti-Israel would not have the popular support to hold power, and relying on the military could be very dangerous. The senior officers may be secularist and too sensible to repudiate peace with Israel - but I don't think the junior officers feel that way.
Egypt has been sliding toward an Islamist regime for years. I've seen comments that this will continue until the people actually experience true Islamist rule and are disillusioned (as in Iran and Afghanistan).
wynn402| 1.29.11 @ 10:16PM
John, that's an exceedingly naive viewpoint. As Michael Ledeen and John Bolton pointed out yesterday, Islamists are pouring into Egypt in the hope of co-opting the 'revolution'.
Just as in Iran under Carter's feckless leadership.
tatosian| 1.30.11 @ 1:25AM
Christians are murdered and their churches burned to the ground in Egypt. Because they are Christians. That is, because they are non believers. Non Muslim. Infidels. (also in Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iraq and the entire umma) These deeds (in Egypt) are carried out by Egyptian citizens against the Christian minority with the blessing of Islam itself.
Not Islamism. Islam.
The Egyptian military is comprised of those same citizens.
I don't recall the Egyptian military renouncing or stopping any of that. Not in the past, not now.
Democracy cannot peacefully coexist with a religion/ideology, Islam, that sanctions stripping the human rights from, vilifying and punishing, sometimes with death, those who don't share in it's wonderful and diverse pathologies.
This piece would be more appropriate for the huffpo or some such.
Ridiculous.
tatosian| 1.30.11 @ 1:35AM
Article 2 Egyptian Constitution:
Article 2
Islam is the religion of the state and Arabic its official language.
Islamic jurisprudence is the principal source of legislation.
Sound like a democracy to you?
Steve in Pittsburgh| 1.30.11 @ 2:39AM
It's rare that I disagree with Bill O'Reilly.
Friday night, he made it sound as if all is lost.
John - TMF| 1.30.11 @ 12:16PM
As to the Egyptian military saving the situation... which was the point of this blog entry, I humbly submit that the Egyptian military has just demanded that Mubarak resign.
What that means when it comes to the opportunity factor for the Muslim Brotherhood/Hezbollah to advantage themselves of the chaos, well I suppose we are to see.
We are powerless to do much of anything. Our current Chief Executive has attempted to ride a fence while juggling his options which are rapidly falling on the floor.
My guess is that Egypt becomes an Islamic state, roughly similar to Lebanon and Syria within the next few months.
The Egyptian military will have little or no effect since my additional guess is that it is as "split" as the Egyptian body politic.
The Islamic world does not operate by western religious, social, or political precepts. This is not a statement of prejudice, this is a statement of fact.
All of the states mentioned in your response are dodgy examples at best. Pakistan is about to be taken over by the Taliban and Pakistani Islamists (for lack of a better term). India is in a continual state of low behind the scenes foment, terror attacks, reprisals, and conflict between its Muslim and Hindu populations. Indonesia is a democratic nation in name only (My humble opinion, but my guess is a populace that didn't toe the line might not see too many democratic actions performed by the government.)
Islam is peaceful when it is a relatively powerless minority, or when it successfully forces submission by the non-believers. This has been the case for the entire existence of the religion on this planet.
I wish it were not the case. I have a good many Muslim friends and associates for whom I have a great deal of personal respect. As the old saying goes... "If wishes were horses, then beggars would ride." As the world scene is currently demonstrating I am not riding a horse.
We, as a nation and government, have shown weakness and lack of resolve in the face of great threat. When I go to Mass today, I will pray that God might stay the ill wind that is currently blowing across the globe. That is, frankly, all that I can do.
Regards,
The Mighty Fahvaag
J.C.Eaton| 1.30.11 @ 2:45PM
Mr. Guardiano, Could you put aside your[self-righteous] disgust long enough to train your perspicacity on this question: where in the world where Islam is the predominant religion, is tolerance,accommodation, you know, that old-time "live and let live" spirit in irrefutable evidence? Thank you very much.
Bob K.| 1.30.11 @ 6:37PM
The question is not whether Egypt is ready for democracy. It is whether democracy is ready for Egypt?
Arnold Peabody| 1.31.11 @ 11:17AM
In 1913 when the Federal Reserve Act was passed, Congressman Lindberg said “ This Act establishes the most gigantic trust on earth ….When the President signs this Act, the invisible government by the money power, proven to exist by the Money Trust Investigation, will be legalized ”
Worldwide mergers, acquisitions, privatisation of central banks and national assets as well as deregulation over the past twenty five years has facilitated the worldwide control of its people by the few. It is in this light the Iraq war, the dissatisfaction with Iran, the recent unrest in Nigeria, Tunisia, Egypt etc .and the Megrahi Libya affair should be viewed.
The policies of the present UK government facilitate and enhance the aims of the communist type New World Order – he selling off of un taxed assets (forests for the moment)is a typical example.
Central banks dominate governments by their ability to control treasury loans, to manipulate foreign exchanges, to influence the level of economic activity in the country, and to influence co-operative politicians by subsequent rewards in the business word.
Interestingly, Tony Blair commenced work for JP Morgan Chase just six months after leaving office. JP Morgan Chase, a firm with assets of $1.5 trillion and operations in more than 50 countries owns 71% of BP.
The mortgage and debt crises did not just happen. It was a well thought out scheme which ensured a compliant workforce whilst facilitating the New World Order
1983 Jacob Rothschild “two broad types of giant institutions, the worldwide financial service company and the international commercial bank with a global trading competence, may converge to form the ultimate, all-powerful, many-headed financial conglomerate”
In western democracies the people are deliberately ill informed, misinformation and half truths are fed to the them by supposed people of integrity including their elected representatives.
The politicians have little or no training in the affairs of state. Many, once elected are more interested in protecting their own interests than does of the state.
The politicians including the second house (UK)is full of Lords and Ladies who on their own admission (declared interests) are involved with the same multinational corporations/financial institutions which manipulate governments and deliberately deprive the people of a voice.
The people of Britain do not elect their prime minister nor does he pledge allegiance to them.
Iran and Iraq had the temerity to nationalist their assets when they discovered the oil companies were fleecing them. As a result Iraq was invaded on the pretext of having weapons of mass destruction.
Subsequently , 26th November 2010 BASRA, Iraq: A multibillion-dollar final deal between Iraq and Royal Dutch Shell to capture flared gas at southern oilfields is expected to be signed. An oil deal between Iran and Iraqi signed in accordance to the international treaty of joint oil and gas fields.
18 January 2010The European Union and the Republic of Iraq signed a Memorandum of Understanding on a “Strategic Energy Partnership.
The media conglomerates are owned /controlled by the same 2% of the population. Corruption is rife where ever one looks.
Thursday 25th November 2010, in an interview on RV on Mr Nirj Diva,
MEP (Conservative Party’s Development Spokesman in the European)
Said
“ .. Britain’s are totally unaware Brussels makes 75% of legislation that its people live under …They are trying to create a country called the EU” – the elites require it but not the people….Free Trade is not working – the rates of growth should adjust to the comparative market – that has not happened – Germany is booming while other states face bailouts….4 billion euros – 5% of the budget – disappears from the EU budget every year which is why Parliament has not signed off on the accounts……The Media are not interested in covering the parliament
leroilion| 2.5.11 @ 4:26PM
How can someone like Barack Obama who have high morals accept to deal or protect a thief like Mubarak? Someone who accumulated Billion of $ from the corruption, the Egyptian People do not have any kind of medicare, they are very poor, children are dying, no potable water, no sewage treatment plants. No future for them, the police beat the innocent who are requesting freedom. The Police torture the young Egyptians who are crying for democracy. I pray God to light Obama to take the right decision for the Egyptian people.