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The Spectacle Blog
With the political unrest in Egypt intensifying by the day it is important that we think about the implications it could have for the Camp David Accords which established peace between Egypt and Israel in 1978.
Caroline Glick of The Jerusalem Post has certainly given the matter some thought and she is not optimistic. While Glick does not see Hosni Mubarak being overthrown she does think he will soon choose his successor:
But the same observers are quick to note that whoever Mubarak selects to succeed him will not be the beneficiary of such strong support from Egypt’s security state. And as the plight of Egypt’s overwhelmingly impoverished citizenry becomes more acute, the regime will become increasingly unstable. Indeed, its overthrow is as close to a certainty as you can get in international affairs.
And as we now see, all of its possible secular and Islamist successors either reject outright Egypt’s peace treaty with Israel or owe their political power to the support of those who reject the peace with the Jewish state. So whether the Egyptian regime falls next week or next year or five years from now, the peace treaty is doomed.
Let us not forget that there was a time when Egypt was Israel’s greatest enemy. They thrice went to war during Israel’s first quarter century. Of course, that can be easily forgotten considering Israel and Egypt have been at peace for a period longer than when they were adversaries.
However, just because Israel and Egypt have been at peace for more than three decades doesn’t mean they are friends. When I spent a good part of the summer of 1988 in Israel, the tenth anniversary of Camp David Accords were approaching. People who talked about Egypt generally said something along the lines of, “We’re at peace but it’s a cold peace.”
Indeed, there have been times during Mubarak’s long reign where it has been downright frigid. In 2002, Egyptian TV broadcast a 41-part mini-series across the Arab world based on the “Protocols of Elder Zion” despite protests from both the United States and Israel. The following year, “Protocols” was put on display next to a Torah in the Library of Alexandria. It was only last month that Al-Liwaa, Al-Islami, an Egyptian government weekly, published an article proclaiming Jews have no right to be in Israel and that Israel will cease to exist by 2025. Earlier this month, Abdullah Al Ash’al, a former Deputy Foreign Minister accused the Mossad of involvement in the bombing of the Alexandria church. While Egypt has not fired a shot at Israel in nearly forty years, the Mubarak regime has been content to tolerate anti-Semitic sentiments and outright hostility towards Israel.
Nevertheless, Mubarak has kept the Camp David Accords in tact. Israel and Egypt are not at war. Yes, Mubarak has governed his people very poorly and he has no one but himself blame for the current state of affairs. But after Mubarak, who can say Egypt won’t rip up the Camp David Accords and go to war with Israel? Couple that with a regime in Iran bent on Israel’s annihilation and we could see the Middle East explode like it never has before. Lord help us.
Floyd Looney | 1.29.11 @ 4:13PM
It looks like the Muslim Brotherhood has begun as adacious move to take over, not just Egypt either, and they might make the Taliban look like an elementary school bully. We could see the Suez Canal Treaty going down right along with the Camp David Accords.
Oil & Gas prices are going to skyrocket (already at $100 a barrel) as this continues. Its really too bad that Obama might be sympathetic to the MB, we already can't drill for our own oil. Nice.
Lullabys, Legends and Lies| 1.29.11 @ 4:22PM
Poor Israel, they can't win for losing!! Totally surrounded on all sides, by people who hate them, by Governments that are collapsing, and their best friend in the World, isn't taking their calls anymore. They're on their own, at least until 2013, when the U.S. gets a new cellphone.
David W| 1.29.11 @ 8:30PM
Maybe Israel could make their case through the various networks and CNN/MSNBC/NY Times. Oh wait, I forget, they are against Israel too (and apparently against anything that has to do with "truth, justice, and the American Way."
Jimmy| 1.29.11 @ 5:04PM
Isreal = 6 Mil, Egypt = 90 Mil people...silly to hold 90 Million people hostage to a dictator and his cronies so 6 Mil(make that 4.5 as the other 1.5 are arab) Israelis can sleep a little better. Don't kid yourselves, this has nothing to do with Israel, this is about the self determination, self respect, pride of a the latter 90 Mil. Better this happen now with a democratic transition than it happen through violent takeover. Either will eventually happen, so I would take the democratic route...otherwise your worst fears will come true....Lord Help us...
JmsA| 1.29.11 @ 5:12PM
"Are the Camp David Accords Doomed?" You mean, Jimmy Carter's one and sole accomplishment?
Rich Rostrom| 1.29.11 @ 5:28PM
"all of its possible secular and Islamist successors either reject outright Egypt's peace treaty with Israel or owe their political power to the support of those who reject the peace with the Jewish state. "
Quite true. OTOH, there is reality which says that fighting Israel is a disastrous mistake. Even a lot of Israel haters understand that, especially in Egypt, which has lost four-count-em-four wars with Israel. Egypt gets $billions from the U.S. for keeping the peace.
Obama said he would end the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, and shut down the terrorist prison at Guantanamo. All his supporters wanted this desperately. Then he became President, and ran smack into geopolitical reality. Even the Obamacrats were not reckless enough to carry out those policies.
I don't think there is any person or faction in Egypt with enough clout to take power who is also reckless enough to undo the accord with Israel, however they feel about it.
More likely, the new regime will pay lip service to
the accords, while embracing anti-Israel forces, and allowing Hamas to import arms across the
Sinai border into Gaza.
Something like the Hezbollah scenario in Lebanon will be played out, with Hamas first turning Gaza into a giant fortified bunker, and only then opening fire on Israel. Russia now makes (and sells) artillery rockets with ranges of up to 70 km, which would put Tel Aviv and even west Jerusalem in range.
Egypt's role will be "plausibly deniable" support for Hamas, striking at Israel while avoiding retaliation.
Chuck| 1.29.11 @ 7:50PM
Bad month for Obama, Tunisia fell, Lebanon fell, Egypt falling, Jordan and Algeria soon to fall, the rest of the Arab world up for grabs. LBJ's asian domino theory has come to fruition except it came in the Middle East not the Far East.
PS: Baby Doc back in Port Au Prince
Happy New Year Mr. President!
cali| 1.30.11 @ 5:17AM
Let's just hope the 'behind-the-scenes' of the Obama admin to push, and support of the Muslim Brotherhood is not Obama's way to stick it to Israel.
Mimi| 1.30.11 @ 8:26AM
Is it time to take the ....Impeach word serious ???
Friday the Muslim Brotherhood took a more active role in street demonstrations and violence increased....That night the President is calling for leniency...and restoration of cell-phones and internet communications. Savage was shouting over the radio ...." He's either incompetant or working for the Islamist" None of this looks good for OBAMA....We all need to sort this out and keep tuned in....ALWAYS it is not what he says, IT'S WHAT HE DOES!!!!
Timothy L. Pennell| 1.30.11 @ 9:04AM
He's a Muslim. He was BORN to a Muslim Father. That makes him a Muslim. He lived in Muslim Kenya and Muslim Indonesia. He attended Muslim Schools, where they "Teach" "Barack. Look out! There's a JEW behind that rock. KILL HIM!" He learned about the GREAT SATAN and the LITTLE SATAN. His "Pastor" - Jeremiah Wright - is a former Muslim, and Barack used to attend Nation Of Islam's Louis Farrakhan's rallies.
I hope that answers your question.
martin j smith| 1.30.11 @ 9:04AM
When the dust settles we will know for sure. Probably YES, THEY ARE DOOMED AND THE WHOLE IDEA OF A PEACE PROCESS ALONG WITH IT.
Dan Smith| 1.30.11 @ 11:14AM
First, it wasn't Carter's accomplishment. It was Sadat's, and he did it because Israel saved his life.
Second, the very first hostile act towards Israel from Egypt means that I will be vacationing at Israeli Sharm El Sheikh.
JmsA| 1.30.11 @ 3:56PM
No matter what you say, the accord was signed at Camp David through the mediation of Jimmy Carter. I didn't like Carter then, and I don't like him now, but he at least accomplished something good.
PattyMor| 1.30.11 @ 3:10PM
Well, if I were Israeli, I would be very worried. If Egypt fall to the MB, Israel will be encircled by hostile nations. I would dust off those bombers and other weapons as they are going to be needing them.
emo| 2.3.11 @ 9:43PM
people are forgetting that Israel is stronger now vis a vis their enemies than at anytime in history. Israel was an economic basket case from the time of its founding until the early 1990s. Syria is substantially weaker today then in 1973 or 1967. A direct confrontation between Eqypt and Israel isnt likely, but increased support and more violence from Gaza is.
As for Jordan, they have gained tremendously from their peace treaty with Israel, but they will be forced to renounce it as well and the result will be Jordan falling back economically decades