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The Spectacle Blog
Inspired by events in Tunisia, Egyptians are holding sizable anti-government protests in many cities today. In this context, it’s worth highlighting a critique Jackson Diehl made last week:
More surprising is the Obama administration’s de facto suport for Mubarak’s immobility. On Tuesday, Obama called Mubarak; according to a White House “readout,” they discussed “a broad range of issues, to include the New Year’s attack on a Coptic Christian church in Alexandria, developments in Tunisia and Lebanon, and how best to advance Middle East peace.”
According to both the statement and my own sources, here is what the two did not discuss: the need for change of any kind in Egypt. This in spite of the fact that Mubarak just staged a rigged parliamentary election in which his opposition was systematically and sometimes brutally suppressed and has scheduled a similar presidential “election” for later this year that would extend his term in office — and Egypt’s political stasis — for another six years.
By failing to mention reform, Obama effectively placed a public U.S. bet on Mubarak’s ability to prevent any spread of Tunisia’s unrest. According to the White House statement, the president “shared with President Mubarak that the United States is calling for calm and an end to violence…” The statement went on to repeat U.S. support for democracy in Tunisia — a position the administration adopted only after Ben Ali’s overthrow. But observers in Egypt and across the Middle East were quick to get the message: Obama’s support for “free and fair elections” does not extend to Egypt.
In one sense this is unsurprising: For two years the administration has soft-pedaled the cause of reform in Arab autocracies and above all in Egypt. The thinking seems to be that Mubarak’s help is needed in the Arab-Israeli peace process, which Obama has futilely focused on at the expense of other issues; that there is no alternative to Mubarak, despite the emergence of a mass reform movement behind Nobel peace prize winner Mohammed ElBaradei; and that there is no possibility of a popular revolution in Egypt.
That analysis may be correct — but it ignores the lessons that Middle East experts are drawing from Tunisia. The Carnegie Endowment’s Michelle Dunne cites three: “First, widespread economic grievances such as youth unemployment can indeed quickly translate into specific demands for political change, and second, this can happen even in the absence of strong opposition organizations.”
“The third lesson of Tunisia’s Jasmine Revolution was perhaps the most memorable of all: When long-postponed change finally comes, it is often startling how relatively little effort and time it can take.”
These lessons apply to a number of Arab autocracies, including Algeria, Libya, Jordan and Syria. But for United States, the stakes are highest in Egypt. In that respect, Obama’s silence on the need for Egyptian reform isn’t just short-sighted. It’s dangerous.
Indeed it is, and it will be interesting to note what, if anything, Obama has to say about events in Egypt in tonight’s State of the Union address.
View all comments (14) | Leave a comment
More Blog Posts by John Tabin
http://spectator.org/blog/2011/01/25/as-egypt-erupts-will-obama-rem
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Christopher Landrum| 1.25.11 @ 12:23PM
It's not only Egypt: why not call a spade a spade for the Christian Killers in Iraq, the bombers of a Russian airport, the imprisoned Chinese dissidents, the imprisoned North Korean dissidents, the Belarussians, the Burmese Child Army...
The more the United States concerns itself with other peoples' problems, the sooner it lets us forget our own.
Chuck| 1.25.11 @ 12:24PM
The Tunisian revolution means everything. Where Nasser failed with his UAR concept in the 60's the Arab world will unite not democratic but Islamic under the thumb of Persia and all hell will break loose.
Stan REdmond| 1.25.11 @ 5:18PM
I disagree with your conclusion. Persians and Arabs don't exactly have a friendly relationship. Even an iron fisted conquest of the Suni world by the Shiites (Persians mostly) would never unite. The general Islamic hatred of all things western and Israel can't even unite them to tolerate eachother. Throw in Non Arab African muslims and Oriental muslims and you're in even more of a mess.
ncatty| 1.25.11 @ 12:43PM
If the author doesn't think silence from Obama is appropriate, then what should he say? If we preach overthrow, where is the guarantee that whoever takes power will be an improvement? I admit it is a hard case, but perhaps silence is not so bad.
solidground| 1.25.11 @ 12:54PM
True leaders do not remain silent. Obama is very nearly criminally negligent in his bow-and-scrape approach to the Islamic world. Bowing, apologizing, empty speeches and passive posturing send one message: the US lacks the strength of its (past) convictions.
Red Phillips | 1.25.11 @ 10:56PM
"True leaders" know what their duties and responsibilities are. It is not the duty or responsibility of the President of the United States to publicly opine on the domestic affairs of other nations. What you seem to want is foreign policy by bully pulpit pounding.
The responsibility of the President is to conduct our diplomatic affairs in a way that best serves the interests of the US., not make angry hectoring speeches that tickle the ears of belligerent interventionists. IT IS NOT clearly in the US's best interest for the Mubarak government to fail.
Rogue Elephant| 1.25.11 @ 12:52PM
I'm no defender of autocracies, but before celebrating "democracy" breaking out in the Middle East, we need to remember that "democracy", in itself, is merely a political process.
Absent Constitutional protections of fundamental rights and the rule of law to uphold them, democracy can be as tyrannical as any autocrat. In the Mideast's current climate, democracy may well sweep Islamists into power (even as Turkey, a NATO power, is now ruled by a majority with Islamist leanings).
Ken (Old Texican)| 1.25.11 @ 12:54PM
Whatever Obama says will be a lie anyway. What does it matter what he says?
Steve-O| 1.25.11 @ 1:06PM
Obama has another "what would Jimmy Carter do?" moment.
Occam's Tool| 1.25.11 @ 1:56PM
He won't mention Egypt, period. The man is a bit of a dunce on foreign policy, except where he can follow Bush's carefully laid out precepts.
Christopher Landrum| 1.25.11 @ 2:04PM
I agree, Occam's Tool: Bush was way better at kissing and locking-pinkies with the Saudi King than Obama has faired with Mubarak.
Floyd Looney| 1.25.11 @ 2:05PM
can only hope it will spread worldwide and where ever oppressive governments exist. I still hope all 50 states secede from DC, as an example.
Arms Merchant| 1.25.11 @ 4:31PM
Support for democracy isn't the issue. With Sharia there is no democracy.
The WH should come down hard in favor of religious freedom. But their liberal blinders are on. Obama's statements about the killings of religious minorities in Muslim lands have been few and tepid.
Red Phillips | 1.25.11 @ 5:33PM
"As Egypt Erupts, Will Obama Remain Silent?"
That's funny. I thought Obama was elected to be the President of the United States of America. Is hectoring other countries about their internal affairs in his job description that we call the Constitution somewhere? I must have missed it.