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The Downside of Redistricting for Conservatives

By Philip Klein on 12.22.10 @ 2:12PM

Yesterday the Census Bureau announced the new distribution of House seats reflecting population data from its 2010 survey. As a number of news outlets have noted, the reapportionment combined with Republican gains in state legislatures and governorships last month have given an edge to the GOP. In total, Republicans have control over the redistricting of 196 Congressional seats, compared to 49 for Democrats -- the rest will have to be done on a bipartisan basis.

While this would seem to benefit Republicans at first blush, it could be a hindrance for conservatives who are hoping for a Republican majority that governs as conservatives. The overarching criticism of the last Republican House (1995 - 2007) was that they came to change Washington but ended up becoming a part of it -- embracing the culture of out of control spending and desperately clinging to power. There were a number of explanations for how this happened, but redistricting was a contributing factor to this decline. Republicans who felt their seats were protected developed an arrogant entitlement mentality and thought they could keep getting reelected as long they didn't rock the boat. I'll never forget listening to Beltway Republicans in the run-up to the 2006 midterm elections who were arguing that the GOP would maintain control of Congress, largely because of redistricting.

This is an area where the Tea Party movement could play an important role. If GOP members fear they may lose in the primary if they stray from conservative principles, then it will be a lot harder for incumbent Republicans to hide behind redistricting.

View all comments (7) | Leave a comment

Mark B.| 12.22.10 @ 3:13PM

You raise a valid point, but as you allude to in the last paragraph, the more "Republican" a district is, the more sway Republican base voters will have and therefore an active base can keep the pressure on lawmakers to remain principled. This of course depends on an active tea party movement to hold folks accountable lest they "go native" up in DC and forget about what they campaign on.

Charles Romer| 12.22.10 @ 6:03PM

You cite the crucial point in determining the future existence of the USA (Also cited by Daniel Hannon): The primary election.

Let's see how many primary challenges develop over the next two years, what the turnout is, and how many challengers actually win. Then we'll know for sure whether we have a future. I, for one, firmly believe we do not although I wish us well.

Nite| 12.22.10 @ 8:38PM

The new speaker of the House is a tough old bird and wants to change things. There are new Republican House and Senate members who do not want the status quo. We have some real shining stars that have bee elected. Reublicans could not do much until after January 1. So give them a chance rather than saying they will fail.

Xinca| 12.23.10 @ 3:10AM

Marco Rubio is the best thing that has happened to the Republican Party since Ronald Reagan. I actually believe that how he acts in the Senate will be a very big determining factor in the success of the Republican Party.

dance...dance to the radio| 12.23.10 @ 12:12AM

Yeah, he's a tough old bird who cries like an elderly Vulcan and whines about being dissed by the prez for being called a hostage taker.
Not a good start.
Man up, Mr. Speaker!

Heywood| 12.23.10 @ 1:08AM

Until all those RHINO's in the Senate are gone what good is having the House anyways? Those 'moderate' Senators are gonna sink Republicans again and then the conservatives will be all trashed out and blamed--again! Get rid of those stinkin' RINO'S!

Mike O| 12.23.10 @ 6:49PM

Some of us Tea Partiers with more political experience know this would be a two-step process: elect the GOP in Large numbers- then claughter those that merely 'talk the talk' at the next primary. Including some we worked hard to put in the first time. This is a matter of educating the GOP that this is NOT your Daddy's electorate anymore and we can't be 'buddy-buddied' our of our principles.