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Romney's Conservative Problem

The Democratic firm Public Policy Polling is touting a new poll in various states showing that Mitt Romney has weaker favorability ratings than his Republican rivals. This doesn't surprise me, but it doesn't change my view that given his competition, Romney is still the frontrunner for the nomination. The problem is that even though conservatives -- for good reason -- are skeptical about Romney, to beat him, they'll have to rally around another candidate. Otherwise, the conservatives will just split their vote up in a crowded field and Romney will be the last man standing, just like John McCain in 2008. It's true that in a followup, PPP noted that the electorate in 2012 is trending more conservative than the one that nominated McCain. But that still doesn't answer the question -- who is going to beat Romney? Tim Pawlenty? Sarah Palin? Newt Gingrich? Mike Huckabee? As long as conservatives are fighting over the answer to that question, Romney can sneak in. And this would be highly problematic, because as I've written before, a Romney nomination would kill the movement to repeal ObamaCare.

View all comments (40) | Leave a comment

Paul Clare| 12.22.10 @ 11:50AM

Yes, "just like John McCain..." and we certainly do not need that again! Another tired old liberal Republican. Biggest credential? The disastrous Health Care in Mass. Sorry, I would rather throw darts for 4 more at BHO than have Mitt baby.

LarryK| 12.22.10 @ 11:54AM

I tend to disagree. 4 more years of BHO could bring this nation to total ruin.

Scob| 12.22.10 @ 12:11PM

LarryK, 4 more years of BHO, will total up to 16 years of GWB, and Mitt (Homo match maker) Romney will add to it...

Paul Clare| 12.22.10 @ 11:57AM

"last one standing just like John McCain" well, we certainly do not need that. Romney is another tired old RINO - look at the financial mess in MA from the Health Care program.
I'd rather 4 more to throw darts at BHO than have Romney who will singlehandedly destroy any creditability the Repub party has regained in the last 2 years.

Occam's Tool| 12.22.10 @ 12:02PM

Romney would lose---there is no passion behind the man. We need Palin or Pence.

Sapwolf| 12.22.10 @ 11:58PM

I agree.

Romney would lose because you must get turnout and boots on the ground.

With it likely now that the Indiana governorship is open, Pence will likely not run for the Presidency.

Palin will probably be the candidate but will do well in the Midwest, much of the mountain West and sweep the South.

She might have to put the Establishment choice on as her Veep. If not, I could see her picking Rubio, West, Ryan or Jindal as her Veep.

People don't realize how close Sarah is to winning due to the low popularity of Obama in the eleven battleground states. She'll win if we are still bogged down in Afghanistan and the economy has not improved, which is likely given the structural problems we have and Obama's campaign to vilify businesses.

SoCon| 12.23.10 @ 2:27AM

Palin is the only Republican I'll fight for; I'm not interested in running another RINO.

I think Sarah can win.

Ellen| 12.22.10 @ 12:09PM

Palin will win the nomination than hold her nose an select Romney as her VP for party unity. She will be unconventional and not run with him for re-election, because she will not need him. Palin/Pence 2016.

Sapwolf| 12.23.10 @ 12:00AM

Ellen,

That is an interesting scenario. It would not surprise me if that happened. Use Mitt, and then after a good first term, ditch him and put in Pence (with now having governor experience).

Seek| 12.22.10 @ 12:17PM

Palin's negatives are sky-high. Recent poll numbers have confirmed as much. If she is nominated -- far from certain -- Obama will clean her clock in the general election. Which is a shame. The GOP will have blown a perfect opportunity to make Obama a one-termer.

Sapwolf| 12.23.10 @ 12:05AM

In blue states, Palin is not polling well against Obama, but she is doing quite well in the battleground states.

She'll take back IN, NC, OH, VA, and FL. Then she only needs one of the following:

NV, NM, CO, IA, WI, or NH.

In New Hampshire, Obama is at -8 on net approval. Palin will beat him there and possibly in Wisconsin and Iowa. She could beat him in Colorado. Nevada has a lot of voter fraud and I'm sure about New Mexico.

The point is...Palin will beat Obama with this economy and our foreign policy messes and troops still bogged down in Afghanistan.

And don't forget that Sarah and Todd BOTH are ex-union and can talk to conservative Dem union members. As much as 60% of union members are not happy with their liberal leaders. They are not happy with all the leftwing bs their leaders push on top of normal collective bargaining.

ggoblue| 12.23.10 @ 8:50AM

you nailed it with your union comments. the building trades, autoworkers, teamsters etc have been sold out to the tree huggers by their left wing leaders.

theres a big difference between govt employee unions and free market unions and it is glaring on election day.

Cris Worth| 12.22.10 @ 12:18PM

Romney rightly or wrongly is perceived as an economic guru therefore he is the frontrunner because of the disastrous state of the economy. The keys are the first two elections (Iowa & NH). Win both he is the nominee, a split still the frontrunner but much more difficult, lose both out and it's up for grabs. All you anti-Romney bloggers better marshal up your forces early on to beat him.

Sapwolf| 12.23.10 @ 12:10AM

No he's not. Maybe by you or non-Republicans but guru no way. He talks capitalism but will be destroyed because he is perceived as a Wall Streeter and Axelrod would love to face him in the election.

His numbers have continued to gradually go down and are showing no signs of recovering. By later in 2011, the GOP Establishment will down orders to promote somebody else, say Thune or Daniels.

Romney will not win Iowa.

And Chris, you can stop your bravado. With one wink, Palin can double the population of Iowa in a week. He can't win in Iowa with just the suits. Palin will crush him there if Huck does not run and still beat him with Huck in the race.

He is NOT trusted, especially by older GOP voters. Sarah is trustworthy.

Bob| 12.23.10 @ 3:57AM

If Palin loses Iowa Mama Grizzly and Piper Cub will go into hibernation on the Arctic Circle.

Ellen| 12.23.10 @ 9:38AM

No departure before South Carolina.

bill glass| 12.22.10 @ 12:48PM

While I like Mitt, he's going to have to do a lot to get the conservatives to go his way...one thing is for certain, he's got much experience with the health care reform issue, and will be able to be a credible foil to Obama's plan. On matters of business, trade, and the economy in general, he will be a good candidate. My first choice is Pence, but maybe he will not pull the trigger.

Sapwolf| 12.23.10 @ 12:12AM

Romneycare will be used by the other GOP candidates to beat him to death. You can count on it. He is not trustworthy and is dull.

Put him at the Treasury Dept. or Commerce.

wodiej| 12.22.10 @ 1:00PM

Reliable polling shows a dead heat with Romney, Palin and Huckabee. The only high negatives Palin has are with liberals and little boys who don't know how to play nice with girls. I think the only reason some women aren't too fond of her is plain old jealousy.

At any rate, no one has officially announced they are running and I don't imagine they will for some time. Palin said if she gets in, it will be to win it and it will not be the conventional way. I think she will wait to see if there is someone she likes that she can get behind and endorse. If not, she'll jump in.

Sapwolf| 12.23.10 @ 12:13AM

+100

Nathan David| 12.22.10 @ 1:09PM

I agree wholeheartedly with this article. Romney is way too far left for me. We are in trouble, because Palin probably isn't going to beat Obama, and Romney would just be another Obama. Huckabee is a little off, but has good numbers and might could beat Obama. My favorite is Gingrich, but his several divorces hurt him with conservatives. I don't expect to find a genuine Christian president, ever, anyway. Just look at Carter - now says America is ready for a gay president. He was the one who ran as a born again Christian. Gingrich should tout that. He's my #1 pick, but maybe not quite conservative enough.

Sapwolf| 12.23.10 @ 12:14AM

If Pence does not run for POTUS, and Daniels cannot convince Palin, maybe Perry will run.

If he did, I believe Sarah would endorse Perry.

If he does not run, I think Sarah will run because she'll have to as the only realistic conservative.

wildbillcuster| 12.23.10 @ 11:18AM

We have already had a gay President, James Bucannon(I realize I spelled his name wrong, too lazy to look it up, sorry) 1856-1860, and look what a great job he did.

Ralph| 12.22.10 @ 1:31PM

Romney, Gingrich, Huckabee are probably past their expiration dates and none have done much of significance lately. Palin is the harder worker for small government cause, and is Chris Christie. My choices are the Christie/Pence type, sort of like the grown ups, which is what we need.

Julie| 12.22.10 @ 1:37PM

I'm not voting for Christie he's too fat.

Proud Mormon| 12.22.10 @ 1:40PM

I agree vote for Romney he is physically fit and an attractive candidate.

Warrior| 12.22.10 @ 1:41PM

We said the same thing about you when you ran for homecoming queen. By the way, Mr. Christie's thighs appear to be the same size as Ms. Clinton's.

daboss| 12.22.10 @ 1:45PM

ouch!

Sapwolf| 12.23.10 @ 12:16AM

Christie is NOT running and he is not a conservative anyway based on his numerous views on other issues.

He'd be dynamite as US Attorney General. The Tiger of Trenton would enforce US law.

Bob| 12.22.10 @ 1:54PM

I hope Romney wins the nomination. RomneyCare is the blueprint for ObamaCare and there is no doubt about it. When Romney says he will repeal ObamaCare he will be crowned king of the hypocrites and the President will mop up the floor with that rich puker.

e cowan| 12.22.10 @ 2:04PM

As long as that man declares that '...we need illegal immigration to keep our economy going...' he will never come close to convincing me that he is anything but another rotten RINO!

Dixie Pixie| 12.22.10 @ 2:26PM

I remember a time during the last election cycle Rudy Giuliani was the front runner and presumptive nominative. So why should we consider anyone to be in the running at this point. The Congress elected last November has not even been seated yet.

To call anyone a frontrunner at this point is presumptuous in the extreme.

The TEA Party Congress faction has vowed to shake up the Federal Government and the Pelosi Democrats have pledged to ignore the results of the last election. A major confrontation in philosophies is brewing in Congress. Political conflict is certain. Whoever wins and loses will set the 2012 political terrain.

I do not see how a dyed in the wool Northeastern RINO like Mitt Romney can avoid being hit by the upcoming political shellfire anyway. In this election cycle anything can happen and probability will. Romney just looks to me as a bad political fit to whoever wins the upcoming political battles.

Simon Templar| 12.22.10 @ 3:03PM

Philip Klein:
Romney does not have a conservative problem.
The nation has a RINO problem and a ruling class that believes it is invincible and that the vast American public is stupid, ignorant, and incapable of self government. American conservatism, our constitution, and self government itself is treated as an outmoded philosophy. On a personal note....Mr. Klein are you going to man up to this and stop the whining and once in your life stand up and if need be put your life, your fortune, your little career as a "conservative" columnist, and your sacred honor on the line?

Grzmlyk| 12.22.10 @ 6:59PM

I would add, Simon, that the problem is that the highest form of expression in our current society is not achievement, it is how compassionate you aooear to be. Therefore, any giveaway proposed in congress - like the funds for the 9/11 first responders - is automatically a fait acccompli. And, in case anyone's noticed, 95% of government spending is, in one form or another, a giveaway.

The sole purpose of our goverment is to loot the private sector and divide the spoils among an endless supply of victim groups.

We will not get rid of RINOs until the culture changes. And the culture will only change if we win back the mainstream media. Conservatives who rejoice in the existence of web sites like this or Fox News or Rush Limbaugh, and who gloat that the mainstream media - in the form of ABC, CBS, NBC, NPR, NY Times, Washington Post, etc. - is dead, are dead wrong.

Sure those are soon-to-be extinctdinosaurs, but, as is the case with conservatives, the Web is capturing all of the liberals who fall through the cracks of the dying media. the death of those insitutions is not proof that liberalism has lost its hypnotic hold on our elites; it is only proof that technology is changing the way we receive propaganda.

We must change the nature of our cultural values through the media - news organization, punditry, Hollywood, etc. Sadly, that isn't going to happen.

The only other way to stop this collective insanity is the utter collapse of this country. Because it is clear that nothing is going to deter us from going over the cliff.

And so, if we haven't collapsed by the time of the 2012 elections - and the Fed will be busy printing money in order to prevent that - look for whomever is the GOP candidate to me a MOTS: More Of The Same.

tatosian| 12.22.10 @ 5:51PM

You know, I'm not even sure what a conservative is anymore.
A cns newsflash- "American Conservative Union Board Approves Homosexual Republican Group for Planning Role in CPAC-" ( http://www.cnsnews.com/news/ar.....ard-approv )
What is going on?

Sapwolf| 12.23.10 @ 12:20AM

Take Russell Kirk's 10 Conservative Principles and add to it the Declaration of Independence and the US Constitution.

Then cross it with the Bible both new and old Testaments for revelation of God's Law, and Cicero's reason and Natural Law.

Bingo, a great Hannakuh and Christmas gift to any American.

Sapwolf's Christmas gift recommendation this year: Whitaker Chambers' "Witness".

That's a good start.

Aiden| 12.22.10 @ 10:51PM

Chris Christie is the only out there "talking the talk and walking the walk". While he may not be the ideal conservative, his focus on correcting the fiscal mess in NJ is applicable on a national scale.

Sapwolf| 12.23.10 @ 12:21AM

Nah. He's the future US Attorney General.

That job was made for him.

Wayne | 12.23.10 @ 8:30AM

How about Cuccinelli, the Attorney General of Virginia?

Wayne | 12.23.10 @ 8:29AM

Romney also was the favorite against Mc Cain. Now even Mc Cain seems to the right of Romney. Now, their will be better candidates or the Tea Party was a waste of time.

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