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The Spectacle Blog
Here are a couple of more optimistic takes on a possible Gary Johnson presidential candidacy: Daniel Larison says he might “have a salutary effect on the primary contest,” Jack Ross argues Johnson could become the anti-Palin candidate and actually win.
Larison’s point may well be true. Ron Paul was able to gain exposure for his views on foreign policy, civil liberties, and the Federal Reserve through the Republican primary debates even if he didn’t seem at the time to be gaining many converts among the GOP faithful. Gary Johnson ought to be able to do the same. But a big part of the argument for Johnson is that he can move the ball further than Paul, which the Weekly Standard interview does a great deal to undermine.
First, he is going to have even less credibility than Paul among most conservatives. One of the things that helped Rand Paul in the Kentucky Republican primary is that he did not conform to the libertarian caricature being drawn by his establishment opponents. Johnson already seems to be reinforcing that caricature. Second, he seems to be winging it on important parts of his message that the Pauls had clearly thought through. Maybe this will make him seem more reasonable and less ideologically rigid than Ron Paul. But casually throwing out figures about cutting the defense budget in half and then talking about humanitarian interventions abroad could just muddle his arguments.
Ross’ take, meanwhile, requires me to believe that Ron Paul could have been more successful in the Republican primaries if he was pro-choice, in favor of open borders, and smoked pot. Nothing I know about the Republican primary electorate convinces me of that, even if you promoted Paul to governor of a state and had Sarah Palin as the only other Republican in the race. That seems to me to be a fight Palin could win easily.
As for the abortion issue, it’s true that Johnson is a pro-choice Republican who could run as operationally pro-life. But most of the conservatives who would be inclined to back him rejected this argument when it came from Rudy Giuliani in 2007-08. It will be hard to walk that back simply because Johnson’s foreign policy is more to our liking. Though Johnson does have the advantages of having an actual record of signing pro-life bills as governor and he has gone a step further than Giulaini by supporting the reversal of Roe v Wade. If Johnson comes out for jurisdiction-stripping, which would make him more operationally pro-life than most of his pro-life opponents, maybe he’d be on to something.
View all comments (17) | Leave a comment
More Blog Posts by W. James Antle, III
http://spectator.org/blog/2010/12/08/rethinking-gary-johnson
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Martin| 12.8.10 @ 3:05PM
As a target conservative/libertarian voter who voted Paul in the primary and has twice voted libertarian in disgust at the GOP candidate (1992 and 2008) who believes in a less assertive and cheaper foreign policy, I'm in the exact target demographic that Johnson is aiming for (except I'm on the old side) I have to say I find him thoroughly unattractive -- Palin's lack of qualification, without Palin's charm and chutzpah. The pauls are genuinely very intelligent; this guy gives no evidence of thsi.
No-hoper, at least I hope so (the GOP primary electorate last time around liked Huckabee, so who knows.)
Booger| 12.8.10 @ 3:15PM
Gary Johnson for President: Because the Republican party needs our very own Dennis Kucinich?
Occam's Tool| 12.8.10 @ 5:20PM
Booger: brilliant wit, AND brevity!
"We are not worthy!"
victor| 12.9.10 @ 1:26AM
Booger:
"Dennis Kucinich?"
Dennis Kucinich? He's overtaking Governor Moonbeam.
Proof once again that the Left Coast is the Land of the Fruits and Nuts.
PS, it got that way because every time there is an earthquake, the country tilts and all of the fruits and nuts roll to the Left Coast.
O'Donnell is a nut| 12.8.10 @ 3:29PM
A pro-abortion candidate has absolutely no chance, at all, of winning the Republican nomination for president. I would rip the flesh from my face and replace it with a mask made of feces before I voted for someone who supports abortion and I personally don't know a single "pro-choice" Republican. Abortion is a national disgrace .
Though I wouldn't be able to do much, if Johnson decides to run for president, I will do everything I can to defeat him.
C Bowen| 12.8.10 @ 4:46PM
Seeing as "pro life Republicans" (George Bush, Rick Santorum) consistently voted to subsidize Planned Parenthood, Mr. Antle raises the suggestion of serious people reconsidering tactics.
It's an interesting political question, but I do believe, Mr Antle takes too much stock in the sincerity of " pro-lifers" who might support say, Mitt Romney, or George Bush or Rick Santorum.
Bob K.| 12.8.10 @ 6:09PM
Well! That is a new image for the phrase "Sh-- Faced!
Andreia| 12.9.10 @ 1:16PM
Start ripping.
Michael L. Hauschild| 12.8.10 @ 3:51PM
Johnson for president? How about changing the National Anthem to several choruses of Timothy Learys Dead? You people are certifiably insane.
Ralph| 12.8.10 @ 4:09PM
His thinking that Mutually Assured Destruction will deter Iran from nukes is more than a little frightening. Imanutjob views that as an incentive.
KiraIsJustice | 12.8.10 @ 4:28PM
Martin, I would say Johnson has far better qualifications than Palin. Not only was he a successful business leader, building a multi-million dollar company from the ground up, but he actually completed an entire term in an elected office, which Palin has so far never done.
He does need to work on his public speaking ability, though, and on how he addresses the issues. Where Ron Paul ran primarily on changing our foreign policy, Johnson seems to be trying to tap into the deficit issue. He will have to emphasize the point that we are borrowing 43% of every dollar the federal government spends, and that means that in order to get spending back in line with revenues without raising taxes, we will need to cut every area of government by 43% unless we start cutting some areas by 100%. He will only win over enough voters on the marijuana issue by pointing our deficit out first and tying the issue to that by pointing out that cutting federal law enforcement spending by around 50 billion a year while bringing in another 50 billion or so from taxes on marijuana as a result of legalization is 100 billion dollars we won't have to cut from social security, medicare, or defense.
dangfitz| 12.9.10 @ 12:06AM
Actually, he served two full terms. Even after setting veto records, he was re-elected.
Occam's Tool| 12.8.10 @ 5:22PM
New Mexico is the only state I know of that has posters up from the state advertising for positions for MDs and Nurses. The reason they have such a desperate shortage is because they treat them like crap in that State, and for that, Gary Johnson is greatly to blame. Loser.
Curly Smith| 12.9.10 @ 9:19AM
You do understand that the Republican primaries selected the useless John McCain don't you? From what I can see, the GOP has structured the primary schedule to prevent the selection of a Conservative and the Establishment may well want Obama to have a second term. Perhaps having another nominee that we can't really support isn't that far-fetched.
PattyMor| 12.9.10 @ 10:32AM
I agree with Curly Smith that the primary schedule seems to preclude a conservative from being selected. Just look at the haplesss candidates from the past: Bob Dole and John McCain. McCain had no coherent message other than I'm the Maverick which means I cheerlead for the other side and obstruct 'my" side. Gang of 14 anybody?
So in 2012, pick your conservative candidate and work and fund them early on. The last thing we need is the nice, but "big gov'ment" Mitt (Romneycare) Romney.
Pathfinder| 12.30.10 @ 6:20PM
I like him.