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On the surface, the tax deal was shaped by the Republicans' strong bargaining position: they could afford to play a game of chicken with the Bush tax cuts extension while Obama and the Democrats could not. Accordingly, the White House had no choice but to accept a deal that broke Obama's campaign pledge to let the tax cuts for the highest bracket expire, a development that would have seemed improbable in 2008, and a political disaster for liberal Democrats. 

The difference between Obama and the liberal wing of the Democratic Party, though, is that Obama is acutely aware that his biggest political problem is the state of the economy. There is no provocation of the left wing that could prove as politically damaging as 2010-level unemployment in 2012 would.

Accordingly, despite the carping of liberal economists, Obama administration believes that there is no better way to improve the economy than to accept a package deal that includes all the Bush tax cuts. Adam Serwer, helpfully, has explained why liberals have a hard time understanding the compromise:

The reason most liberals are disappointed about the deal isn't simply because the government isn't soaking the rich. It's because, as Mike Konczal writes, tax cuts for the rich don't significantly stimulate the economy, and because, as Dave Weigel notes, looking back at the president's now meaningless pledges over the past few years, liberals wanted to use the money from the top-tier tax cuts for a progressive domestic agenda.

Here is the possible point of departure for the administration: perhaps tax cuts for the rich "don't significantly stimulate the economy," but at this point it's becoming inescapably evident that neither do the kinds of "progressive domestic agenda" items that were included in the stimulus bill. Clearly the administration, for its part, has rethought the effectiveness of those measures. Take as an example the decision to replace the Making Work Pay tax cuts -- heralded as the smartest of behavioral science and demand-side stimulus measures -- with a payroll tax cut, an approach long favored by supply-siders. Why did Obama make this change in policy? Probably because the Making Work Pay rebates didn't work as advertised.  

If the administration thought there was a better use for the high earner's money than letting them keep it, it would have found a way to change the bargain. But it's been clear for a while that Obama's team doesn't have the necessary faith to pursue that course. Peter Orszag, after having just left Obama's Office of Management and Budget, explained this thinking in a fairly straightforward manner in a September New York Times column

In the face of [high unemployment and unsustainable budget deficits], the best approach is a compromise: extend the tax cuts for two years and then end them altogether. Ideally only the middle-class tax cuts would be continued for now. Getting a deal in Congress, though, may require keeping the high-income tax cuts, too. And that would still be worth it. 

Note that Orszag isn't talking about a compromise between left and right. He's talking about a compromise between closing the deficit and increasing unemployment. In other words, the two-year extension of tax hikes isn't simply a painful bargaining outcome for the administration. It's actually the preferred policy.

View all comments (2) | Leave a comment

JP| 12.7.10 @ 3:40PM

I suppose it depends on how one defines "rich". Say there is a married couple who run a type-s corporation (perhaps a tool & die shop), and they employ 6 people. Thier income is derived from thier business. Say the business earns $2 million in revenue, of which $200,000 they pocket. When the tax cuts expire, thier tax liability will go up $60,000 all things being the same. That is the cost of 1 employee. Their choices are thus: 1) Eat the loss and reduce thier net income of $200,000 by 30% (unlikely), find $60,000 in savings (office supplies, telco, suppliers, travel reductions, maintaince programs, etc...), or reduce the number of employees by 1. The last scenario is the most common. These millionaires run insurance brokerages, small law firms, construction firms, small to medium size factories, independent sales; business and IT consulting firms, auto repair shops, etc... Take the above scenario and multiply it by the thousands if not tens of thousands. Unemployment would easily grow above 10%. And if they reduced thier operational and capital costs, the end result will be the same.

For Libs only know one type of "rich" -the super rich, the trust fund babies, the entertainment pros, and high level CEOs. They have no clue that the rich (as defined by Congress) are in fact anything but.

Eric Cartman| 12.7.10 @ 3:42PM

Screw Obama, screw the leftists, screw the Democrats. If they want to meet in the streets, we'll be there. Punks.

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More Blog Posts by Joseph Lawler

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