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Adieu, Adieu, Remember Me
March 25, 2011 | 38 comments
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DeMint’s Defense of RomneyCare is Ignorant…And Dangerous
March 17, 2011 | 85 comments
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McConnell Pushing Vote to Block the EPA from Regulating Carbon Emissions
March 17, 2011 | 9 comments
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More Barbour on Afghanistan
March 16, 2011 | 8 comments
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House Passes Three Week Spending Bill
March 15, 2011 | 8 comments
The Spectacle Blog
As I’ve noted on a number of occassions, even if the economy doesn’t improve greatly and President Obama is deeply vulnerable in 2012, Republicans still have to agree on a viable candidate to replace him. And at the moment, Republicans aren’t particularly excited about any candidate.
A new Gallup poll of potential 2012 GOP condtenders shows now clear early frontrunner. Mitt Romney leads the pack at 19 percent, followed closely by Sarah Palin and Mike Huckabee at 16 percent and Newt Gingrich at 13 percent. Everybody else on the list is somewhere in the single digits.
That said, I were to pick a frontrunner right now, I’d have to say it would be Romney. Huckabee and Palin both have intense supporters, but limited appeal beyond their core constituency, while Gingrich has alienated conservatives a number of times and carries tremendous personal baggage. Romney is a deeply flawed candidate, who, on top of all the issues he had in 2008, will have to answer for his health care plan that served as the model for ObamaCare. In a vaccuum, it’s hard to see how Romney could win the GOP nomination. At the same time, somebody has to end up winning the nomination, and since all candidates have weaknesses, one candidate with weaknesses will end up as the nominee. Remember, in 2008, John McCain overcame campaign finance reform, immigration, voting against the Bush tax cuts, and a litany of other failed litmus tests to become the nominee. So if McCain won in 2008, it’s easy to see how Romney could win in 2012, despite his many problems. And though it’s a wide open field and he’s clearly beatable, at this point it isn’t clear who the person is to beat him.
Also of interest, I went back and found a Pew poll of the 2008 GOP field taken in November 2006, and it had Rudy Giuliani at 27 percent, John McCain at 26 percent and Condeleezza Rice at 20 percent. Romney was at 7 percent and Huckabee didn’t even register.
View all comments (27) | Leave a comment
More Blog Posts by Philip Klein
http://spectator.org/blog/2010/11/17/poll-shows-2012-gop-field-wide
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Will| 11.17.10 @ 12:22PM
I love how (failed) campaign finance reform is something McCain had to "overcome." When did that become a standard-bearing issue for conservatives?
Chris| 11.17.10 @ 12:26PM
I really hope "The Knife" can muster some support. Daniels, policy wise, is just too amazing to pass up. He beats the rest of the field HANDS DOWN on any and all fiscal matters.
Al Adab| 11.17.10 @ 12:27PM
We first need to make certain we have defined the What before we seek out the Who. Cream will rise to the top. We need to consolidate positions and then find - perhaps a governor- who holds them and exemplifies those positions. It will happen, be alert.
Lesser Weevil| 11.17.10 @ 5:58PM
Agreed, Pete Townshend is kind of a nut. Clapton is much better on immigration and fox hunting. Article 2, Section 1 will still be a problem, though.
Nostril| 11.17.10 @ 9:13PM
As someone wrote here last week, we should ignore these '12 polls. The media want to encourage us to select from these mostly-failed, tired candidates from the past. Instead, we should be observing who are the most courageous, principled and effective leaders during the coming year, both Congressmen and governors, and select one of them. Let's ask TAS editors to avoid these emotionally-taxing polls.
nemov | 11.17.10 @ 12:39PM
To Will: "Campaign finance reform" violates free speech. If Warner Brothers wants to fund a Michael Moore hit piece film that debuts before the election the US Constitution allows it. It's called freedom of speech.
Charles| 11.17.10 @ 12:40PM
Romney has to answer for failed Romneycare. He will get destroyed in a debate with Palin. You know it and so do conservatives.
Nelson H.| 11.17.10 @ 1:32PM
Come on. Palin is formidable (she did just fine against Biden and will be even better in 2012) but Romney is no pushover. He's a career politician with quick wits and a well-organized mind. Nobody could "destroy" him.
PattyMor| 11.17.10 @ 12:42PM
No, the "cream" doesn't always rise to the top. McCain was a weak candidate and yet he still got through. He didn't put on an effective campaign and looked even worse after the banking industry fell apart. The spark in his campaign was lit by Sarah Palin and he threw her to the MSM wolves.
Al Adab| 11.17.10 @ 1:05PM
Conservatives all knew McCain was not the one. The GOP has failed us time and again. Remember, the two are not synonomous. Again, we need to define positions then see who best reflects them.
Alan Brooks| 11.17.10 @ 12:44PM
"Poll Shows 2012 GOP Field Wide Open"
No Reagans?
Erevis| 11.17.10 @ 1:16PM
Ron Paul for Pres.
Nelson H.| 11.17.10 @ 1:44PM
Everything has to be put into the context of what will the world look like in early 2012, not what it looks like today. Anticipating a bit, how many of you are thinking there will be some kind of economic near-calamity in the next 15 months or so? If that happens, Obama will be forced by his own party to stand down and not run for re-election, at which point we will have to beat HRC. While Palin-Obama is a match-up I would relish, because the Left would be fit to be tied after the Palin win, Palin-HRC is not a contest I would want to see because our side could very well lose. Against HRC, in the context of an economic disaster, the best candidates seem to be Christie or Daniels. Fair or not, Romney is problematic in terms of low charisma and religion. If you don't think the latter matters, look at how he did in the southern primaries in 2008.
Sean| 11.17.10 @ 1:50PM
Ron Paul is the best out of that lot.
JP| 11.17.10 @ 2:43PM
The person who isn't mentioned, but looms large is Jeb Bush. If he enters the fray, all bets are off. Despite the bad reputation the Bush family has with Teapartiers, Libertarians, and Conservatives (about 50% of te party), he still demands respect. His biggest problem is mentioned above (half of the GOP will never, ever trust another Bush). His biggest assets are 1)name recognition, 2)Establishment Support, 3)Fundraising ability (probably the most important), and 4)He is the only likely candidate who can defeat Obama. Sorry, but Palin, Pawlenty, Mitt, and the Huckster fall short. Palin would only get 40% of the GOP behind at best. Mitt blew his chances with RominyCare; no one even knows who Pawlenty is, and the Huckster is even more liberal than most RINOs.
This is even a weaker field than in 2000 -that's saying something. And if one compares the politics of Jeb, W, and Bush41, Jeb is the most conservative. Whether we can trust him is another matter. But, he may be the only thing the GOP has in 2012.
Randy Schmeling| 11.17.10 @ 3:24PM
Kudos to Sarah Palin for helping a write-in candidate win election to the U.S. Senate! No small achievement!
Oldefarte| 11.17.10 @ 3:49PM
There is and will be a ton of credible Republican candidates available for 2012, any/all of which will easily beat Obama [after the extremely radical liberalism that the Democrats have destroyed the country with recently]. I guess [and hope] is for a true conservative [ie Palin, Pence, etc] instead of Romney [who as stated has too many skeletons] etc. Obama, Pilosi, Reid etc have simply garanteed a Republican president [and mostly congressmen] for the indefinite future!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
somnolence| 11.17.10 @ 4:32PM
If Ron Paul were 66 years old in 2012 I might consider voting for him. Otherwise it is Palin all the way for me. If Daniels is the nominee I'll be casting a write-in for Palin come November 2012.
GBinPA| 11.17.10 @ 4:47PM
Without a doubt, virtually any Republican would be a better choice than Obama. Sarah Palin is much more qualified and tougher than Obama. Conservatives need to keep their eyes on Paul Ryan.
Bo| 11.18.10 @ 10:31AM
GB is 100% right. I can't think of one Republican from the dog catcher in Bumspittle, Wyoming to a crossdressing accountant in Manhattan who wouldn't be a far better president than the current preening goofball we have now. You can mark my ballot today.
somnolence| 11.17.10 @ 4:55PM
Hillary Rodham Clinton looks like walking death on television these days. The bags under her eyes are worse than Fred Thompson's were in 2008. Palin is going to have the money, the time, and we all know she has endurance in reserve to burn all bases and chasers by 2012, but only if she really wants it. By the middle of next year she really has to show much more enthusiasm.
Nelson H.| 11.17.10 @ 5:58PM
Don't underestimate the Clintons. They have one attribute which no other candidate has: they are prepared to do anything to win. Anything. It's scary to think about.
James| 11.18.10 @ 10:34AM
I am afraid Sarah Palin will go down in flames in the first tough debate.
Tim*| 11.17.10 @ 8:04PM
We Tea Party Rebels are urging Our Tea Party Kingmaker & The Senate Point Man Senator Jim DeMint of South Carolina to run for The Presidency in 2012.
The Tea Party is now inside The Congress & The GOP.
Let's Seize The Executive.
Carpe Diem.
james| 11.18.10 @ 10:29AM
Jim Demint could take SC. But, that's probably it.
Take a close look at one of Jim Demint's good friends.
http://www.rightspeak.net/2010.....or_19.html
Who? ROMNEY.