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The Spectacle Blog
An insightful piece in the National Journal discusses redistricting implications of the 2010 election cycle. Even if public sentiment is against Republicans in ‘12, the party’s control of redistricting in key battleground states — Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina — lessens the probability of an electoral thumpin’/shellacking:
The GOP’s massive gains in state legislatures mean they enter 2012 with as big an advantage in drawing districts as they’ve ever had. Many vulnerable Republicans will find themselves running in more favorable districts, while the party can expect to benefit from newly-created districts designed to their advantage.
Republicans fully control redistricting in 15 states, including the battlegrounds of Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. They control the mapmaking for 193 House districts, compared to 44 for the Democrats.
SNIP
Republican State Legislative Committee Executive Director Chris Jankowski estimated the GOP will gain between 25 and 30 additional House seats from the reapportionment and redistricting process alone, a number that makes it all the more difficult for Democrats to win back the seats necessary to retake the majority. Republicans already are slated to hold between 241 and 244 seats in the new Congress, their largest majority since 1946.
Put another way, Democrats couldn’t have picked a worse year to take a beating in state legislatures and governorships. Even if President Obama wins a second term in two years, Democrats would need a tidal wave to overcome the combined strength of redistricting and the Republicans’ decent majority in the U.S. House.
There’s an equally dismal picture in the U.S. Senate. As the Journal reports, 23 Democratic-held seats are up for grabs in ‘12 compared to 10 Republican seats.
View all comments (9) | Leave a comment
More Blog Posts by David N. Bass
http://spectator.org/blog/2010/11/10/redistricting-trauma-for-democ
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Derek Leaberry| 11.10.10 @ 10:49AM
Although the gains in the state legislatures were marvelous and will allow Republicans to draw up some nifty Congressional District lines(eg. drawing Asheville out of Heath Shuler's NC-11), the Republicans may be hurt in 2012 by the following 1) a resurgence of the black vote with Obama heading the ticket; 2) a letdown when Republicans don't make appreciable budget cuts; 3) a weak presidential candidate.
Spicy Joker| 11.10.10 @ 11:21AM
I can't wait to see that fake conservative Heath Schuler GONE.
Derek Leaberry| 11.10.10 @ 12:19PM
Yes. But I bet that the little worm might switch parties to save himself. By the way, ex-Redskin quarterback shares a distinction with the current quarterback, Dexter McNabb. The two men scored two of the worst scores on the NFL QB intelligence tests. Maybe that's a clue why some ancestor of Shuler's forgot to put a c in his surname.
JmsA| 11.10.10 @ 6:17PM
I wholeheartedly concur, and I'm not even from North Carolina.
Arthur Devine | 11.10.10 @ 10:49AM
I live in the 3rd district of Virginia. It is so crazily gerrymandered. I do NOT believe it is good for all of us to have the kind of gerrymandering we have. I think it keeps us divided. Check out my web site to see how we are UNITING the community.
MikeN| 11.10.10 @ 11:33AM
That depends on what type of redistricting is done. If it is heavily gerrymandered in Republicans favor, then this means the Republicans are spread thin and are MORE likely to lose seats.
ds80| 11.10.10 @ 12:13PM
"gerrymandered in Republicans favor ... means the Republicans are spread thin"
... makes no sense.
PattyMor| 11.10.10 @ 2:51PM
Here in Illinois, we had the perfect gerrymandered district stretching along the Miss. River like spaghetti, with meatballs at the top & bottom. The "union" candidate just got beat by a
pizza parlor owner with 10 kids --Bobby Schilling.
Granted the DemoCrat made a bunch of gaffes, but some of these DemoCrats can still be beat. Bobby had a great commercial showing all the shuttered businesses.
sam| 11.10.10 @ 3:52PM
Won't matter. Dems will just run to the courts and judges will redraw the districts more "equitably" and more in line with maximizing disadvantaged groups representation so as not to disenfranchise their vote. It's in the constitution you know.