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The Spectacle Blog
We probably will not know the final composition of the Senate tomorow. Washington State only counts half of its ballots on election night (the rest are mail-in), so that race probably won’t be called until later in the week — and even then it might be close enough to trigger an automatic recount. There may be recounts in other states, too. But we will get an early indicator of whether Republicans have a shot of taking the Senate.
Jon Manchin, the Democratic governor of West Virginia, is ahead in the polls in that state’s Senate race, a special election to replace the deceased Robert Byrd (meaning that the winner will be seated immediately, in time for the lame duck session of Congress). If Manchin wins, it is vanishingly unlikely that control of the Senate will flip to the GOP, and his apparent strength is a key reason why most analysts are expecting Democrats to hold the Senate even as they lose the House in a historic wave.
Polls in West Virginia close at 7:30 PM Eastern. If John Raese scores an upset against Manchin, there is a good chance that the GOP wave will be big enough to flip the upper chamber. If he doesn’t, there isn’t.
View all comments (14) | Leave a comment
More Blog Posts by John Tabin
http://spectator.org/blog/2010/11/02/how-to-tell-if-the-senates-in
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Timothy L. Pennell| 11.2.10 @ 8:42AM
They're all in play. If the incumbent isn't at 50% or higher, then he or she is BEATABLE.
Throw the Marxist Muslim SON, of a Marxist Muslim FATHER.
He writes a Book: 'Dreams Of My Father'. These "Dreams" are part of his Philosophy. The Dreams of a man who ABANDONED his Family (Typical Black Man) and died DRUNK, in a Kenyan GUTTER. This is the "VISION" that he wants for the Country. This is what has gotten us here. DEAD in the GUTTER.
Yes We Can.
Bryan Yashar| 11.2.10 @ 9:00AM
I thought his name is Joe Manchin and not Jon!
WL| 11.2.10 @ 9:15AM
Nice analysis Mr. Tabin...
But please spellcheck next time...before the liberals are citing your articles as reasons why we are all hicks and banjo playin' hillbillies...
tommy | 11.2.10 @ 10:12AM
Only the democracy can help one country and national, as an america you are quite luck now, for there are too many country are not have a few democracy.
grumpygresh| 11.2.10 @ 11:11AM
If Manchin wins, we will have the treacherous NRA to thank. Manchin's recent rise in the polls seemed to correlate with his ad touting his NRA endorsement while using his rifle to shoot a cap and trade bill.
The NRA is neither conservative or pro-Constitutional (except 2A) . All true conservatives should ditch the NRA and join a real conservative gun rights group!
bob | 11.2.10 @ 11:38AM
idiot.
gman| 11.2.10 @ 12:43PM
what is a real conservative gun rights group? I'd like to join
Explosion Proof Light | 11.3.10 @ 1:30AM
Keep me attention with one eye on it.
irish19| 11.2.10 @ 12:10PM
I must also confess to some disappointment with the NRA's endorsements this cycle. When they called asking for contributions to their Victory Fund, I said that if I could afford to contribute (regrettably, I could not) I would send money directly to the candidates. The caller seemed at a loss. As pointed out, the NRA is a single-issue organization. However, this cycle we need to lay the groundwork for a more comprehensive solution to our problems. That makes the NRA's endorsement of Dems worth quite a bit less to me.
Bo| 11.2.10 @ 1:14PM
If Rossi wins in WA, they'll recount and recount until he loses again.
Mark J. Goluskin | 11.2.10 @ 2:23PM
John, I have to say that basing all senate races on West Virginia is not the way to encouage people out West to vote. Remember there are races in Colorado, Alaska, California, Washington state that CAN turn the tide in the senate. Only if we get out and vote for the right candidate. We must all get out and vote no matter what happens anywhere else!