A historical precedent to the Tea Party movement found
expression in New Jersey in the form of a grassroots campaign built
around opposition to the tax hikes imposed by former Democratic
Gov. Jim Florio in the 1990s, recalls Rick Manning, a Second
Amendment activist, who now serves with Americans for Limited
Government as the director of communications.
“I’ve seen the Tea Party before,” he said in an interview.
“There was a citizens-led revolt called `Hands Across New Jersey’
that came about in response to Governor Florio’s over-reach. People
who had not been involved politically became energized and active.
It had a real impact.”
In the off year election cycle of 1991, Republicans took control
of the State Assembly and State Senate. These results heralded a
wave of national victories for the national GOP that culminated in
the election of the Gingrich Congress beginning in 1994, Manning
observed. The results here are quite telling because on the both
the state and national level the Republican Party lost support
after it backpeddled on its commitments to limited government,
Manning added.
Ben Dworkin, a political science professor who serves as the
director for the Rebovich Institute of New Jersey politics, also
sees similiarties between the “Hands Across New Jersey” campaign
and the Tea Party, but identifies some key differences.
“There are some similarities between the Hands Across NJ effort
from the early 1990’s and the Tea Party efforts of today,” he
observed. “In both cases, you had an organic, grass roots movement
that was able to coalesce with the financial and political support
of more established entities already opposing Democratic
incumbents. In both cases, there was public anger and
frustration with a lingering recession and the perception that
government hasn’t been as responsive as it should.
“But we should also recognize that these kinds of protest
movements are part of American political history, and occur from
time to time over the years. The issues are different.
The people who participate are different. But part of the
greatness of American democracy is that citizens can organize to
demand that elected officals address their grievances, and are
often effective.”
Dworkin has offered some early observations on the election
returns in his state. They are as follows:
Close Races All Around
We have not seen so many close races for Congress in New
Jersey in decades. Districts 3, 6 and 12 are all likely to be
decided by a few percentage points.
In addition, major races for Bergen County Executive and the
special election for state Senate in the 14th legislative district
will also be close.
The closeness of these races reflects a few things:
First, the political climate is being driven by the bad
economy. People are angry and frustrated and therefore, as
expected, they express that frustration by voting for someone who
is not in charge. Second, the Republicans knew it was going
to be a good year for their party. (The first midterm
election when there is a new president is always good for the party
that is not in control of the White House.) Therefore, the
GOP recruited serious candidates who have run very credible
campaigns. There were no sacrificial lambs in the targeted
districts.
Interpretations Abound
No matter what the outcome, partisans on each side will
interpret it as having significance beyond whatever district was
involved. This may or may not be the case, but it is
something of a self-fulfilling prophecy. For example, if you
claim a mandate long enough and loud enough, the press - and
therefore the public - will eventually believe that it actually was
a mandate.
These races may well be decided by local concerns and the
personalities of the candidates, but those who insist there is a
“larger meaning” to what happens today are likely to get the
attention of the media over the next week. This is how things
that don’t really have anything to do with national politics end up
being understood as having everything to do with national
politics.
Christie Unbound
The Governor has a lot riding on this election. This is
not just because he campaigned vigorously for dozens of candidates
around the country.
For the Governor, it’s probably more important to see how
Republican congressional candidates do here in New Jersey. If
Republicans are able to knock off any of the incumbent Democrats in
the state, Christie and his supporters will show that it is
evidence that the Governor’s brand of Republicanism can really
delivery victories in the northeast.
