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The Spectacle Blog
I have a political prediction record I am proud of. Actually, it is even better than in that link, because Kamen wrote his column in 2008 before all the mail-in ballots were in from Oregon (and maybe elsewhere). In truth, I was EXACTLY on target with my 52.9 percent pop-vote prediction for Obama, not “close but high at 52.9 percent.” In short, I wasn’t third; I won.
Anyway, I have been wrong for much of this election cycle, although I made no formal picks. I can remember a private dinner with a number of top Reagan veterans, shortly after the 2008 elections, where I predicted doom and gloom because I thought Obama would carefully keep building his political standing by carefully packaged, smartly chosen fights. Several of the old Reagan hands instead said, no, Obama would overreach and cause a huge backlash among the general public. Wow, were they ever right! And again, this was several months before Rick Santelli’s rant. All credit to the wisdom of the Reagan vets.
Even after that, I saw a large wave for conservatives/Republicans, but one rising against significant headwinds as well: the most widespread, most well-organized, most systematic voter fraud in American history abetted by a Justice Department that wouldn’t fight it; the Obama political organization which was as effective as any on the left even seen in U.S. history; far more money on the Dem side, including the street money and best-organized union GOTV ever; the poor leadership of the RNC; and the fact that as unpopular as the Dems have become, the GOP brand is still in the tank, so that while people would have something to vote against, they would lack the essential “tsunami” element of something to vote for. For all those reasons, and also because my intuition told me this time to be pessimistic rather than optimistic, I privately forsaw good pickups for the GOP but nowhere near as overwhelming as some others were saying would happen.
But one trick in my bag, in predictions, is that my predicting record is based on final predictions written between four days and one day before the election. It’s a little easier that way, and therefore a little less impressive to be right (although I still am sort of proud of my record as shown in the first link above).
All of which leads to this: All along this cycle, I haven’t know how to account, numerically, for the expected vote fraud, or for the growing habit of early voting, or for the union/Obama organizing which has never been put to the test in a non-presidential year before. My calculations and intuition were both thrown off by these elements, and by what I saw as headwinds, described above. Now I see them not as headwinds but as cross-winds, and have tried to adjust accordingly. And still I am going to be all squirrelly about this, and say that these predictions aren’t made with much confidence. These predictions are made humbly. I even considered saying that these aren’t really official predictions, that they are just guesses, and that I really don’t have an official set of predictions this year. Talk about a cop-out!!
But I can’t get away with that. I offer all those caveats above, but I need to be held to account. So, with many misgivings, I guess you can shove these picks in my face if I’m wrong, because they do amount to my official, final predictions. They are based on overwhelming data, and on the Democrats’ utter failure to make a coherent case for keeping themselves in office. They are based on a palpable feeling in the electorate that it is time to rein in the growth of government, and that Republicans are the only party that might accomplish that, even if the public doesn’t really trust the Republicans either. And they factor in the crosswinds and a little bit of intuitive re-adjustment that has taken place in the last five days. All of which leads to…. drum roll, please….
These numbers: In the House, by the time the new House is officially seated in January, the GOP will hold 246 seats. In the Senate, the GOP will hold 51. These numbers may include party switchers. Maybe, maybe not. But those are the numbers. Please don’t throw rotten tomatoes if I’m wrong.
View all comments (18) | Leave a comment
More Blog Posts by Quin Hillyer
http://spectator.org/blog/2010/11/01/predictions-right-here
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Conservative Bob| 11.1.10 @ 4:58PM
Everyone please get out and vote. This isn't over by a long shot and the best way to counter and vote fraud is to have the margin of our victory so high as to render their efforts meaningless. They can only steal it if its close. Lets save the celebration until after the game!
Booger| 11.1.10 @ 6:51PM
Already voted. Thought about voting several times. If it works for a D, why not me? On the other hand, Holder would probably be willing to prosecute a poor little Booger.
Jeff Perren | 11.1.10 @ 5:19PM
It's a pity the numbers, whatever they are, won't turn out to be large enough to override an Obama veto. Still, they're about as good as we could get this time around, especially given that - still! - so many GOP candidates are mediocre (like Rossi in Washington).
That said, the real work starts Nov 3. It will take a lot more than an election to turn this country around. It will take a wholesale cleansing of the culture, starting with the educational system.
(The media turn around is well underway, thanks to the burgeoning of Internet news/op-ed sites like AmSpec and the decay of the old line major TV and magazine companies.)
John Navratil| 11.1.10 @ 6:12PM
Mr. Perren,
It's a pity the R's won't have the numbers to guarantee a veto override, but the bar was set that high for a reason and the effect will be that Obama may veto everything that comes his way, but he does so at his peril for 2012. Perhaps he doesn't care, but he won't have much to run on in two years.
Back to those numbers. They are a mathematical consequence of the 2006, 2008 Senate election. The Democrat Senators who are losing, or have lost (Specter, tee-hee) are from the last time Republicans help power. The ones being teed up next time are from the larger number of Democrats elected in 2006. The odds will favor the Republican Party then but, for now, all the action will be in the House.
Ned the Red| 11.1.10 @ 6:35PM
Perhaps some Democrats might come help over-ride a veto. I doubt this administration has earned much loyalty with its past practices.
Lesser Weevil| 11.1.10 @ 7:11PM
Let's just hope that the new R's bring enough strength of conviction and political know-how to begin the real work that you mention. It will be an uphill battle against the combined forces of the establishment.
Conservative Bob| 11.1.10 @ 7:53PM
Lesser
We are their strength and conviction. We are their backbone. The way to make certain they don't waver is to remind and assure them every step of the way of our support when they are with us our and the peril of our anger when they are not.
Mark James| 11.1.10 @ 9:40PM
They won't be battling the Dems, their fight is with entrenched RINO incumbents like our boy Hatch
Spicy Joker| 11.1.10 @ 10:08PM
Quin,
I seem to recall you saying McCain was going to win Pennsylvania. He lived there for a month and was trounced. I predict the GOP will win 45 House seats and 5 Senate seats.
Boston12GS| 11.2.10 @ 12:03AM
Far be it from me not to accept the political wisdom of "Spicy Joker". Ugh.
Stop by my place tomorrow evening, I'll pour you a glass of celebratory champagne. :-)
This is going to be the electoral version of "whack-a-mole"--and the whole time the moles will be screaming about how it's "not that bad" and "it's only because we didn't go left hard enough (e.g., public option), as if it's the left that's voting all these Dems out of office. LOL.
Tim*| 11.2.10 @ 9:08AM
That's A Lowball Bid.
Yosemeti Sam| 11.2.10 @ 6:17AM
I predict - the Sun will rise in the East and set in the West.
tony bonn| 11.2.10 @ 7:04AM
"But those are the numbers. Please don't throw rotten tomatoes if I'm wrong."
rotten eggs will do....there will be no republican wave - just ripples. when manchin wins it will spell an end to the delusions for the senate - the same delusions which had mccain winning in 2008...(even though the banksters had foreordained obama in 1991.)
and even if republicans do better than i suspect, you people will be governed by the same exact folks who govern you now. a republican is nothing but a democrat with a slight time lag...the tea bag party is the same lame group which thought the loser gingrich would be knight in shining armor only to be thoroughly outwitted by clinton....
Bob Miller| 11.2.10 @ 8:28AM
I bet many union members dragged to the polls by their unions will vote Republican.
MacDaddy| 11.2.10 @ 8:35AM
Already proudly displaying my ink-dipped fingers today....My prediction is a net gain of 62 house seats, and a net gain of 9 in the senate. 1 Dem will switch parties and caucus with Republicans to give the GOP control....and I am sticking with my prediction (made in February) that Obama will NOT be the democrat nominee in 2012....either he will fall on his sword a la Johnson, or he will be in effect de-funded by Soros and lose to Hillary in a pre-determined campaign....
Hillary will be formidable in 2012. We better have a very strong nominee....
Oldefarte| 11.2.10 @ 11:55AM
The IMPORTANT POINT is that [hopefully and eventually] ..............AMERICA WINS! As someone [possibly pollster Pat Caddell?], if the winning Republicans don't perform their elected duties post today, then they as well will become the targets of the outraged electorate, and rightfully so. As the old saying goes, WE'RE MAD AS HELL AND WE'RE NOT GOING TO TAKE IT ANY MORE. Everyone reading this, PLEASE PLEASE GO VOTE TODAY [I just did so]!!!!
Ken (Old Texican)| 11.2.10 @ 12:24PM
You olde father against rowdy teens,
I have voted early and often (grin)
I proudly wore my Houston tea-party society t-shirt, daring a poll frauder to challenge me.
They just rolled their eyes and shut up. heh
Oldefarte| 11.2.10 @ 3:48PM
Amen, Ken!!!!