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The Spectacle Blog
Whether you want to call it a “blowout” a “bloodbath” or a “maelstrom,” all the smart money is on a Republican landslide next Tuesday.
Late yesterday, the Hill released polling data taken by former Hillary Clinton pollster Mark Penn, predicting that Democrats would lose 50 or more seats in a “blowout” election. According to the writeup:
The Hill 2010 Midterm Election poll, surveying nearly 17,000 likely voters in 42 toss-up districts over four weeks, points to a massive Republican wave that, barring an extraordinary turnaround, will deliver crushing nationwide defeats for President Obama’s party.
The data suggest a GOP pickup that could easily top 50 seats (the party needs 39 for control of the House).
The Cook Political Report is now projecting Democratic losses of 48 to 60 seats, “with higher losses possible.” According to Cook, “The midterm maelstrom pulling House Democrats under shows no signs of abating, if anything it has intensified.”
Handicapper Stu Rothenberg goes a step further:
With a week to go until Election Day, House Democrats face the potential of a political bloodbath the size of which we haven’t seen since the presidency of Franklin Delano Roosevelt.
The largest midterm House loss for the president’s party during the last 50 years was 52 seats in 1994. The previous largest losses were 55 seats in 1942 and 71 seats in 1938.
View all comments (19) | Leave a comment
More Blog Posts by Philip Klein
http://spectator.org/blog/2010/10/27/the-coming-gop-rout
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Too Many Tims| 10.27.10 @ 10:35AM
Only Racism can explain this rejection of the Obama agenda.
Tim the Enchanter| 10.27.10 @ 11:18AM
Idiocy is an equal opportunity employer, and not confined to race. Silly bugger.
Brubaker| 10.27.10 @ 11:33AM
Following that logic, only racism can explain the election of a total incompetent with absolutely no qualifying experience.
Joe the Pimpernel| 10.27.10 @ 3:23PM
Irony does not translate well on the Interwebs.
Lookingforwardtotherout| 10.30.10 @ 5:06AM
Look at the data. Only blacks are still supporting Obama in any significant numbers. The racists are those supporting this nazi. Everyone else has clued in.
Siegfried X| 10.27.10 @ 10:36AM
It will happen if Republicans have enough discipline to stay "on message". i.e. the economy. Democrats are throwing everything including the kitchen sink to try and distract. Republicans will win if the avoid the bait and stay on message.
Eric CArtman| 10.27.10 @ 10:40AM
Wow! That's some kinda data you got going, there. I especially like the data showing:
"Math.floor(Math.random()*99999999999); if (!document.MAX_used) document.MAX_used = ','; [removed] ("
Eric Cartman| 10.27.10 @ 10:46AM
This is all well and good, BUT if the GOP is thinking I am voting for them instead of against Obama, they are sadly, sadly mistaken.
LISTEN UP STUPID PARTY! The real miracle is that the GOP is still in the lead when their biggest idea so far is Michael Steele in a bus. The only way that bus could improve the GOP's image is if it ran over Steele along with a few RINOs. You have done nothing to win back my trust. You better start acting like the party of Reagan and NOT Bush. You have exactly ONE chance left. No more.
tonypal| 10.27.10 @ 12:05PM
Right on! These guys will be on a short leash. Their careers will end as quickly as they started if they deviate in any way from their principles.
RJ| 10.27.10 @ 12:53PM
Yes. One of the big disappointments for me this election is that the GOP establishment did nothing to win my vote. Instead, they used contributions to support RINOs in the primaries. It was a joy to see so many of the anointed nominees rejected. To the GOP RINO establishment - you do not represent us; you are not our leaders. Those who support limited government and personal freedom, like the Tea Party activists will lead the way.
Al Adab| 10.27.10 @ 2:14PM
Correct you are RJ. This election is a repudiation of The Left, not a vote of confidence in the GOP. They failed us before they must not fail us again. We purged the party of some RINO's, not all, but the remainder must understand this message, No compromise or accomodation with statists.
Mike| 10.27.10 @ 1:56PM
AS usual Cartman is spot on. I'll donate to R's when I get results. Until that time I will work for and donate to conservative candidates. With a majority they had better WORK toward advancing our agenda and not just stopping the D's. When the R's last had the house and the senate and the white house they blew it.
Robert Simon| 10.27.10 @ 7:18PM
You are correct my friend.But let me also add the name of Ron Paul.Rand Paul is a start....
Syeven Ravine| 10.27.10 @ 10:57AM
In 1994, the 52 GOP gain was a "surprise" that became evident only on election night. The internet was not around and the only news/opinion sources were a few conservative radio talk shows. I remember clearly that G. Gordon Liddy revealed the day after the elections that Lanny Davis told him the day before that the Democratics expected at least a 50 seat loss. I asked myself, "Why wasn't I told about this?" There were few in the public that knew what was going to happen. It is much different today. The public knows more and it is informed to a far greater degree than 1994. This year will be much bigger than the 52 seats in 1994.
Robert Simon| 10.27.10 @ 7:20PM
I have a sneaking suspicion that 50-60 seats is way too low.... the 1938 number sounds right...
AJsDaddie| 10.27.10 @ 11:49AM
@Eric
Absolutely right, Eric. Our newly elected representatives better understand that they work for us, and they better stick to the conservative principles that they were elected to preserve. That's why as important as this election is, 2012 is even more so. If we the people stay on point and are ruthless about firing those who don't perform, even those we just elected, then the message will begin to get through.
2010 - The beginning, NOT the end!
2012 - 19 Dems in the Senate on the bubble
Lather, rinse, repeat
ThomasF| 10.27.10 @ 12:03PM
96+ seats.......
Al Adab| 10.27.10 @ 2:11PM
Do not make the mistake of seeing this election as a GOP victory. Instead it is a repudiation of The Left and Statism. The GOP must understand that they are being given one last chance but that another failure like 1994 or 2000 leaves only bitter consequences. Simply put, DO NOT FAIL US AGAIN. Accomodation or compromise with The Left is not acceptable.
Pauline Kaehl of Manhattan| 10.27.10 @ 3:47PM
How can this be? I know nobody who has ever voted for a Republican.