Just weeks into the Obama administration, I wrote
about how runaway spending could combine with a stagnant economy to
lead to severe inflation.
With the Fed expected to inject more money into the economy by
buying up bonds when it meets next week, inflationary expectations
are on the rise in the bond market.
As a result, for the first time ever on Monday, the government
sold inflation-protected bonds for a negative yield. As the
Wall Street Journal
put it in layman’s terms: “This suggests investors are so
terrified of inflation that they’re willing to pay the government
money every year to buy insurance against it.”
The Fed is currently more concerned about deflation. But as we
saw in the 1970s, it’s quite possible to have both a stagnant
economy and rampant inflation at the same. And the spending polices
of the Obama administration make this more likely, because the
federal government has to find buyers for all the debt it’s
issuing, or else the Fed will have to to jump in and print more
money to purchase it.
To be sure, actual inflation could be years away. But things are
certainly trending in that direction.
Tea Man| 10.26.10 @ 11:25AM
Can someone tell me about who does the inflation adjusting to these bonds? What metric to they use? And can it be manipulated? Because if it can, it will.