The Spectacle Blog
Confirming indications of a building Republican “wave” this fall, polls now show Democrat Rep. Raul Grijalva in a dead-heat with his little-known challenger in Arizona’s 7th District. Politico reports that the Congressional Hispanic Caucus is now directing campaign cash to help Grijalva against insurgent GOP candidate Ruth McClung.
A big part of Grijalva’s problem is that earlier this year, the incumbent Democrat joined those calling for a boycott of Arizona after the state passed a tough law aimed at curbing illegal immigration. Grijalva may have expected that stance would endear him with voters in the 7th District — where about half of voters are Hispanic — but it appears to have backfired disastrously. Polls show the Arizona law is popular, while Grijalva’s support for a boycott was seen as harmful to the economy of a district suffering with high unemployment.
Fifty percent of 7th District voters say they’re ready to dump Grijalva, while McClung — an attractive young physicist who works for a rocket engineering firm — has begun capturing national attention.
Late Sunday night, I spoke to a Republican pollster in Arizona who had conducted a 7th District poll early last week and couldn’t believe the result: McClung actually leading by 2 percentage points. So he polled the district again and got similar results. Now those surprising findings have been confirmed by the Magellan Strategies poll that struck alarm among Democrats. Independents in the district are breaking strongly toward the Republican, a Tea Party favorite who is also supported by about a fifth of voters who identify as Democrats.
Polls indicating a surge for McClung have had an important effect: Arizona’s two Republican senators, John McCain and John Kyl, have reportedly started directing campaign donations and other resources toward the 7th District campaign. Within the next week, McClung’s candidacy is expected to gain $100,000 worth of Republican support, in addition to a steadily increasing stream of online small-donor contributions from grassroots conservatives eager to defeat Grijalva, who is co-chairman of the Progressive Caucus.
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KLSmith| 10.11.10 @ 4:33AM
GO RUTH! Defeating Raul would be very sweet. I donated to her campaign on behalf of the school kids in his district that were treated to a guest lecture on the greatness of Hugo Chavez that Raul helped arrange for them.
Sandy| 10.11.10 @ 7:58AM
Thank you for doing this great article on Ruth McClung. She is absolutely impressive, and, who said the Republicans didn't have "rocket scientists"? Michelle Malkin did a great write up on her not long ago. The lady is awesome, and, would bring very valuable and needed defense experience to Washington.
c. j. acworth| 10.11.10 @ 11:31AM
In her campaign ads she could say "Good government isn't rocket science, but even if it was..."
John Skookum| 10.11.10 @ 1:43PM
This is a working-class/retiree/Hispanic district with a very cheap media market. Any size donation will go a long way towards getting Ruth McClung elected. Please give generously.
Even here in Arizona, no one saw this one coming. What a scalp to hang on the wall!
SC Guy| 10.11.10 @ 1:44PM
As I understand it, Rep. Grijalva apparently believes that he is in a bulletproof minority majority district, which is true on paper but it is more marginal than you might think. President Bush received 43% of the vote in this district in 2004 and Senator McCain received 42% in 2008. Bush and McCain received 55% and 54% statewide, respectively - nice but by no means landslide margins. So that undermines the argument that the district is bulletproof.
wodiej| 10.11.10 @ 2:10PM
don't ya just love it....
Al Adab| 10.11.10 @ 3:31PM
Grijalva is simply put a disgrace. Nor only is he a member of the Congressional socialist caucas- along with about 70 others (which really should frighten us all)- but he called for a boycott os his own state over SB 1070. The man needs to take a long sabattical, perhaps emigrate to Venezuela and get out of Arizona. As the home of Barry Goldwater, they deserve better
Patriot| 10.11.10 @ 5:58PM
Dick Morris says repubs could pick up 100 seats in the House. All we need are money and confidence to fuel this tsunami!
Tonyboy| 10.11.10 @ 7:53PM
Go Ruth !!! Please help her defeat the Obama agenda by donating to her campaign. I Am !!!
Artgal| 10.12.10 @ 10:37AM
Ruth is an impressive person doing an outstanding job - and it's been grassroots all the way! She is someone we can proudly say has been running purely on principles and is a shining example of what can be accomplished by simply being yourself and never wavering from your convictions.
Ruth McClung has a message that resonates with people because it's a message from her very heart!
Though I do not live in her district, I am proud to be helping her campaign. GO RUTH!
Be sure to tune into The Tammy Bruce Show to hear Ruth McClung at 12 noon on Thursday, Oct. 14! www.tammybruce.com
Shirley| 10.12.10 @ 3:07PM
Ruth has earned the the respect and admiration of voters in her district. She knows the issues and is getting her message out. We know where she stands. She is hard working and principled. I am proud to be one of her many supporters. GO RUTH!!!!
MadMacs| 10.14.10 @ 1:47AM
Minnesota is also home to thousands of illegals, so I'm doubly thankful Arizona is standing up for America. Join me in contributing to the campaign of a true Conservative, Arizona GOP candidate Ruth McClung. God Bless you Ruth!
Together, we can send Grijalva packing for good!!
Mats | 10.14.10 @ 8:20AM
Go Ruth!!
dude| 10.16.10 @ 11:27AM
She says she's for smaller government and less spending but she has spent most of her career working for a freaking DEFENSE CONTRACTOR. Can you get any more hypocritical?
indinAZ| 10.18.10 @ 12:24AM
After Grijalva's call for a boycott on our own people, I vowed to do what I could to get him out of office. I have never worked for a campaign but am working for Ruth delivering literature. Good response from latino, white and black constituents in the district. Viva Ruth! She is going to win - Raul and his pack woke up too late.