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The Spectacle Blog
Remember all those “reformist conservatives” who were peddling books, op-eds, and magazine articles saying that the Republican Party would die after the 2008 elections unless GOP pols followed the five- or fifty-point plans contained therein? Well, Dave Weigel followed up and asked the logical question: What do you think now that the Republicans are likely to win again not just by ignoring your advice but by doing the opposite?
The reformists mostly double down, arguing that they have either been proven right or will be proven right just around the corner (the piece concludes with a characteristically obnoxious quote from Mickey Edwards). Snark aside, governing is different than campaigning against an unpopular administration that has tried to do too much during a horrible economy. Maybe we’ll need to dust off our copies of Comeback and Grand New Party in the run-up to the 2012 election. And I do think Republicans are returning to power prematurely, though given the way the Democrats have governed I don’t see what the alternative is.
But as I observed in a recent Wall Street Journal review of two triumphalist Democratic books — both smart books in their way, just like the two reformist conservative books I just mentioned — we’ve been in a very volatile political environment for quite some time. There is a tendency to overreact to the last election cycle. Those predicting a permanent Democratic majority and the reformist conservatives overreacted to 2006 and 2008, mainstream conservatives overreacted to 2002 and 2004, and I’m sure we’ll see all kinds of Tea Party triumphalism in the overreaction to 2010.
Sometimes it’s better to take the long view.
View all comments (20) | Leave a comment
More Blog Posts by W. James Antle, III
http://spectator.org/blog/2010/10/06/comeback-how-conservatism-can
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Eric Cartman| 10.6.10 @ 12:08PM
It's pretty simple what people want: Stop the exhaustive list of bullshit the government seems to endorse, back andor outright promote and do the job the Constitution outlines. Everything from giving money to African men to show them how to wash their ding-a-lings, to destroying farms in California to protects some ecofreak's wet dream and a fish. Gay rights, water bugs, bike paths, bridges to nowhere, the sex life of cocaine addicted polar bears. STOP IT! All that is just not that important. Protect our lives, property, borders and wallets. Stop tilting nipple to every orphan who killed his parents. If you do that, get the fiscal house in order, protect our country like they are charged to do, the Republicans can win every election for the next 40 years.
Siegfried X| 10.6.10 @ 12:21PM
This is a great column, but I must disagree with:
" I do think Republicans are returning to power prematurely"
The thing is that the presidential campaign will begin soon, which FORCES the Republican Party to make decisions about how they would govern. We can't just sit on the sideline for 10 more years and contemplate our navels. We have already had almost 15 years of a stands-for-nothing, ad-hoc Republican Party. We've spent all that time just playing off what the Democrats (and Bush) did, spinning and making tactical moves without any goals or strategy. Hacks getting elected solely for the purpose of getting elected. The only goal being to elect more (R)'s.
But the presidential race will change that. Candidates will need to come up with real platforms, not just say "The Democrats are bad". So the governing decisions will need to be made within the next year, as platforms are developed. No more running away from issues like gay rights and illegal aliens -- the Republican presidential candidates will be forced to take stands, and the primary voters to choose a candidate based on those stands. Instead of just saying "The Democrats are bad", candidates will need real plans for areas like the economy and education. When we examine those plans we'll know whether each candidate chooses to use the government or the free market to fix problems.
Finally, the waiting is nearly over. Nowhere to run, nowhere to hide.
Eric Cartman| 10.6.10 @ 12:29PM
"Nowhere to run, nowhere to hide." Perfect, Siegfried. Exactly what they need to know. The Balless Republicans better get them reattached and do something, or they too will be gone. And, yes, Congressmen/Senator Balless (R. Everywhere), this is a threat.
Eric Cartman| 10.6.10 @ 12:23PM
PS: One other thing. Newt has a great idea (he got it from Jefferson I think) ) for those Federal Judges who seem happy to legislate from the bench - stop paying them. Congress has that power and it would go a long way in bringing sanity back to this country. So add that to the list :-)
Siegfried X| 10.6.10 @ 12:58PM
We can't cut judges salaries while they are in office. "... a Compensation which
shall not be diminished during their Continuance in Office."
US Constitution
Article III. - The Judicial Branch
Section 1 - Judicial powers
The judicial Power of the United States, shall be vested in one supreme Court, and in
such inferior Courts as the Congress may from time to time ordain and establish. The
Judges, both of the supreme and inferior Courts, shall hold their Offices during good
Behavior, and shall, at stated Times, receive for their Services a Compensation which
shall not be diminished during their Continuance in Office.
Eric Cartman| 10.6.10 @ 1:04PM
Found what Newt said:
"I simply want to say in passing, remember that the Jeffersonian Judicial Reform Act of 1802 abolished 18 out of 35 federal judges — over half — and the Jeffersonians had a pretty good understanding of the Constitution. I am more cautious than Jefferson. I would only abolish the Ninth Circuit Court as a signal."
I stand corrected ;-)
Tim*| 10.6.10 @ 1:29PM
The Tea Party Anti-RINO CINO Candidates are inside The Republican Party , as of recent Republican Primaries .
Aaaand , in those Primaries a number of RINO-CINO Republicans have been purged .
We Tea Party Rebels understand incremental , step by step advancing Rebellion .
First , We focus on November 2nd .
Then , We Don't Fight The Last War .
The Tea Party Rebellion Escalates .
Rise Up !
Derek Leaberry| 10.6.10 @ 1:36PM
If I could use David Frum's words against him in his infamous 2003 National Review tirade, we conservatives should turn our backs to him. He has nothing to say. His worldview is little different from those of his liberal neighbors in Upper Northwest Washington.
Siegfried X| 10.6.10 @ 1:56PM
Yes. Frum is a neo-con, which is basically a War Democrat. Agrees with them on everything besides military issues.
In fact the original neo-cons were card-carrying Democrats who became Republican because they wanted military action against communism. That is decades ago, and now their political "children" neo-cons are also war Democrats.
JP| 10.6.10 @ 2:26PM
Let's say for the sake of argument that the GOP wins back the House (perhaps a 225-210 majority), and wins back 8 Senate seats (49-51 minority). Who do you think will be running the House and Senate? Who will have senority? It surely won't be the newly elected congressmen. I'm not as worried about the House as I am the Senate. The same old Establishment Republicans will continue to hold court (Orrin Hatch, John McCain, Lindsay Graham, Susan Collins, Kay Bailey Hutchinson, Dick Lugar, and Olyimpia Snowe, and Mitch McConnell). These will be the people who will wield the real power in Congress, as the Dems will have to compromise in order to prevent them from filibustering. These are the very same people Reid and Daschle rolled circa 2001-2006. And roll they love to be rolled! Now add a Scott Brown here or a Fiorina there (assuming she wins), and the Young Guns will be helpless.
If the the GOP wins back 7-9 Senate seats, the MSM will begin the biggest smooze campaign in history. From late November onward the Wa Post and other mediia outlests will feature weekly profiles in courage covering the Old Guard GOP - and how they will protect the nation from the Teabaggers (the barbarians at the gates!). McCain, Lugar, McConnell, Snowe, and Hatch will be built up; all of a sudden these Establishment Republicans will be invited to cocktail parties, Martha's Vinyard, and Georgetown dinners. We've seen this before.
Forget about repealing ObamaCare. Come December, the Establishmen GOP will discover that ObamaCare isn't all that bad - it just needs fixing around the edges! And Bush Tax Cuts? I'm sure the GOP Senate will be able to take one for the Dems! Somehow the GOP Senate will allow itself to be blamed for the 2011 economic slowdown (which looks more and more likely).
The more things change....
Siegfried X| 10.6.10 @ 3:07PM
House Republican leader Boehner is a bipartisan kind of guy, who is already talking about letting Democrats legislate even if they are in the minority. So we will be playing defense in both Houses, with Obama trying to pick off however many RINOs he needs to pass his left-wing stuff.
serfer62| 10.6.10 @ 5:52PM
The assumption is the rinos run the circus...thats changed. With Demint & the Young Turks there will be a core for the dissatisfied to rally around. Even if they lose the top end their influence will control such selections to keep the rinos limited.
AND then there are the ;12 elections to consider
Siegfried X| 10.6.10 @ 6:27PM
The problem is that math though. If there are 52 Dems and they hang together, then all they need is 8 RINOs to break filibusters, even if the rest of the Republicans were twins of DeMint.
That's the way it's been for 15 years. Since there was never any backlash against the RINOs, they voted Democratic at will. So no matter which party has the majority, the RINOcrats could pass legislation.
Tim*| 10.6.10 @ 3:12PM
Tea Party Kingmaker Senator Jim DeMint's importance is rising. "In the Senate, if you got a half-dozen people who follow you, you have a major movement going," says Rutgers political science professor Ross K. Baker. "The big threat is to Mitch McConnell." DeMint says he doesn't want to challenge McConnell, or run for a leadership position. Still, says Baker, he is creating a "rival power center" that will move the party to the right. The candidates he supported will owe DeMint a "certain obligation of support," Baker says. Senators up for reelection in 2012 will not want to cross DeMint and the Tea Party by compromising with President Barack Obama and congressional Democrats, fearing that would invite a primary challenge.
JP| 10.6.10 @ 4:18PM
The question Tim is how many of the newly elected GOP Senators will follow him? Carly Fiorina is center-right pol who feels more comfortable with MBA type estalbishmentarians; Miller from Alaska is a candidate, as is Rand Paul (but with the Pauls one never can be quite sure). Toomey is a maybe; Donnelly would be a yes, but she is over 10 pts down. We can forget about Kirk (he is a Progressive in the same mold as Crist); Dan Coats is a solid Establishmentarian. In all, De Mint could capture perhaps 3-4 of the new Senators (that is, if they do in fact win). Add on, perhaps another 4-5 Senators (and that is pusing it), and at best his coalition is nine plus himself.
Personally, I think DeMint should play it cool. I think he should volunteer to be the next head of the Senate Republican Campaign Comittee (the group that recruits and assist in the funding of new candidates). In 2012, there will be 25 open Democratic seats in the Senate. I hope 2010 inspires solid conservative-libertarians to run against Establishment Republican Senators who will be up in 2012 (like Dick Lugar). In all, DeMint could then have a coalition of over 30 GOP senators, and perhaps the GOP will have a 60-65 seat majority.
Siegfried X| 10.6.10 @ 4:40PM
It will be a long tough fight with the RINO Establishment. They will win some battles.
Our only hope to move things quickly is to nominate and elect a conservative president.
ncatty| 10.6.10 @ 4:20PM
Gridlock will be acceptable to me.
Tim*| 10.6.10 @ 5:18PM
Tea Party Kingmaker Jim Demint's Candidates want to repeal Health Care Reform .
Pat Toomey wants to repeal Health Care Reform.
Ken Buck wants to to repeal Health Care Reform.
Rand Paul wants to repeal Health Care Reform . Marco Rubio wants to repeal Health Care Reform ........ etc. Sharron Angle of Nevada , Mike Lee of Utah , Christine O'Donnell of Delaware .
Do The Math .
JimmyT| 10.7.10 @ 2:20AM
The best plan for education and energy is get the federal government OUT of it. Eliminate both departments. Leave it to the states and local communities to take care of educating the children. Leave it to the market to take care of energy needs. We have enough oil and natural gas reserves to be independent. Just need to "let the dogs out".