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Republicans have opened up a commanding lead among those most likely to vote in the November election, according to data released by Gallup today.

While, among registered voters, Gallup shows Republicans enjoying a slim 3-point lead in the generic ballot asking whether people prefer the Republican or Democratic candidate in their districts, in reality, most registered voters won't vote. And among likely voters, Republicans now enjoy a double digit lead over Democrats, the size of which varies based on the turnout assumptions.

In a higher turnout election, Gallup gives Republicans a 53 percent to 40 percent advantage -- and in a lower turnout scenario, that gap widens to a staggering 56 percent to 38 percent.

Gallup asks participants a series of questions to determine their likelyhood of voting, and the GOP enthusiasm advantage that has been reflected consistently in their polls this year, makes a huge difference when the sample universe is narrowed to those most likely to vote.

View all comments (14) | Leave a comment

Franklin| 10.4.10 @ 6:41PM

I won't celebrate until the results are certified. I'm from Minnesota - I know all about voting fraud...it doesn't always happen during the actual voting. Remember Franken???

O'Donnell is a nut| 10.4.10 @ 6:47PM

This poll is going to put Dems and liberal bloggers in the uncomfortable position of having to tout a Rasmussen poll, as Rasmussen's latest generic ballot poll has the Dems within three. Rasmussen's numbers of late have been odd, as he has had Obama's approval about 3% points above various poll averages, with Obama actually hitting 50% a few days ago.

Tim*| 10.4.10 @ 10:53PM

Rasmussen Presidential Approval Rating :

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows that 29% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as president. Forty-two percent (42%) Strongly Disapprove, giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -13
The Presidential Approval Index is calculated by subtracting the number who Strongly Disapprove from the number who Strongly Approve.

Rasmussen Generic Congress Ballot :

Republican candidates now hold a three-point lead over Democrats on the Generic Congressional Ballot for the week ending Sunday, October 3, 2010. This is the smallest gap between parties in roughly a year.
Still, while the margin has varied somewhat from week-to-week, Republicans have been consistently ahead in the Generic Ballot for over a year, and it has run as high as 12 points. When Barack Obama first took office as president of the United States, the Democrats enjoyed a seven-point lead on the Generic Ballot.

Among voters not affiliated with either major party, Republicans hold an 18-point lead.

ds80| 10.5.10 @ 8:25AM

Still on your O'Donnell shibboleth, I see. Give it a rest. You think you're changing anyone's mind?

Alan Brooks| 10.4.10 @ 7:20PM

Of course the GOP will win less than a month from now, everybody know it by now. But it'll fizzle out.
There has been no substantial-- lasting-- development since the Soviet Union's demise in 1991.

Tim*| 10.4.10 @ 10:58PM

Sounds sorta like you ObamaBoy Brooks .

Go feed the pigeons in the park .

your mama| 10.4.10 @ 8:05PM

The Republicans have to remain strong and vigilant,and to not take anything for granted and get out there and vote.

ggoblue| 10.4.10 @ 8:21PM

not only will the right wing turnout be huge but most of the black vote is concentrated in safe districts....this will be the turning point

28 days from tomorrow

ds80| 10.5.10 @ 8:30AM

I recently saw a poll putting black support for Obama at over 90%. My first thought: look how successful the Democrats have been at keeping "them" on the plantation.

In the minds of many, his abject failure as President will have tarnished the image of a black as President. What a shame.

PCC| 10.5.10 @ 12:44AM

Gallup asked about the likelyhood? Maybe they should have asked about the likelihood as well.

Bob K.| 10.5.10 @ 7:11AM

GALLUP GIVES GOP DOUBLE-DIGIT EDGE AMONG LIKELY VOTERS!

Izzat so!

Not according to the morning news today: Both local and national news stations are pushing the news that the Democrats are catching up! Sounds like a coordinated counter attack.

To paraphrase Dudley Doright from the "Rocky and Bullwinkle" show: "If it's "on the tube" it must be true!"

Roald| 10.5.10 @ 7:14AM

The issue is not republican vs democrat. If the crisis has shown anything, it is that both are intertwined in the corporatist state of Big Government & Big Banks & other Big Lobby interests.

True that real limited government types, such as Ron Paul more often then not are Republicans. So the real question is, whta types of Republicans will get elected and will they sell out, once elected. From my point of view (as libertarian) I believe that some limited government politicians now on the ballot are either big warfare state and drug fighting DEA lovers or religious zealots & cultural warriors. Things are not really black and white.

William| 10.5.10 @ 7:33AM

Prediction: In the House Republicans will pick up over 100 seats. In the Senate the Republicans will pick up 11 seats.

Democrats now in the polls who are ahead by 5% or less with less then 50% of the vote will loose their election. Any Democrat now ahead by 5% or less with 50% or more of the vote will likely loose their election.

Never in 40 years have I seen Democrats so despised by everyone who votes.

SoCon| 10.5.10 @ 3:02PM

I think you're channeling your inner Dick Morris.

Sure hope you're both right.

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More Blog Posts by Philip Klein

http://spectator.org/blog/2010/10/04/gallup-gives-gop-double-digit

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