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The Spectacle Blog
Sen. Lisa Murkowski has essentially pulled even with Republican nominee Joe Miller in the three-way Alaska Senate race, according to a new CNN/Time poll.
Though other polls have shown Miller with a comfortable lead, this poll finds Miller with 38 percent support, compared with 36 percent for Murkowski and 22 percent for Democrat Scott McAdams.
CNN’s poling director suggests that Democrats are starting to decide to strategically vote for Murkowski to prevent Miller from being elected.
That said, Murkowski is running as a write-in candidate, which makes the race incredibly difficult to poll. One would have to think that Murkowski’s name not being on the ballot will cost her a lot of votes, thus I’d still be inclined to give Miller the edge unless polls start to show Murkowski with a big lead.
View all comments (11) | Leave a comment
More Blog Posts by Philip Klein
http://spectator.org/blog/2010/09/29/cnn-poll-murkowski-closes-gap
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Interested Conservative| 9.29.10 @ 4:54PM
And what happens when anyone asks her who she'll caucas with when elected? If she waffles in a play for democratic votes, there go the "moderate" GOP voters who made the primary so close. If she strongly says GOP, then what was the point of the primary?
This poll seems about right, in that it simply matches the primary, but it is likely her high point. How can she improve, barring Joe Miller imploding?
Now, if O'Donnell can get Castle to run in Delaware, we'd likely see the opposite effect - namely Castle and Coons fighting in the middle, giving O'Donnell a chance at a plurality - probably her best shot at winning.
SoCon| 9.29.10 @ 5:02PM
CNN/Time poll? You're kidding, right?
These clowns routinely over-poll democrats--they probably show red state Alaska as a democrat majority state.
Alaskans aren't stupid; bet you Miller's going to kick Murkowski's butt.
It's a fraud| 9.29.10 @ 5:26PM
this, CNN/Time are trying to skew the race. If the twit name was Smith or Jones, id be worried but its Mugwumcowsky or something so it's gonna be hard for them Alaskans to get it right.
SoCon| 9.29.10 @ 6:09PM
Alaskans can spell Murkowski's name, it's her RINO policies they have a problem with.
Kenneth E. MacAlister Jr.| 9.29.10 @ 6:59PM
Since when are CNN/Time polls reliable or relevant? Anyone?
bert| 9.29.10 @ 9:54PM
Two of the most far left wing Obama media operation have their Clintonista fundraiser owned polling firm cook up a push poll and somone at TAS even bothers to read it . Hey Philip I have some lovely waterfront property in Everglades city for your consideration .
What the heck has happen to common sense at TAS ?
Richard (former Alaskan)| 9.30.10 @ 7:11AM
I can't vouch for the accuracy of the CNN poll, but I can vouch for the fact that the Lisa Murkowski write-in campaign is in considerable measure a draft - a response to strong interest expressed by many Alaskans. To some, the combination may seem unusual, and to some who comment frequently here, probably all of these Murkowski supporters are contemptible quasi-Marxist fellow travelers, but here goes. The Murkowski supporters include many in that portion of the state's greater Anchorage middle class employed in or connected to the oil industry. It includes many in the Alaska Native community. It includes that segment of the state that holds the opinion that Sarah Palin has morphed into a media creation and does not - and should not be seen to - speak for the state. It includes many who were part of the Ted Stevens moderate coalition, who believe that government should steer a course between expansive statism and practical investment in the public good. Alaska being Alaska (a place with one degree of separation) there are those of decidedly more notionally conservative sentiments who have met Joe Miller and who question whether he is up to the job, or sufficiently informed on many issues of concern to Alaskans - notably energy. The big question is whether the potential for an election-winning plurality can be assembled from these different blocs. But there are a lot of people who greeted the results of the Alaska GOP primary with "My God, what have we done?" In the special circumstances of Alaska, many are people with whom many of you might agree on many issues. If Murkowski should win this election as a write-in, it will not be because of her ego, or because 'liberals' sabotaged the election. Joe Miller may make a good Senator. But Lisa Murkowski has been a good one in the minds of many Alaskans, despite the way she was first handed the seat.
Mark| 9.30.10 @ 9:29AM
Lisa Murkowski is not Ted Stevens. She was given a Senate seat by her father, who was dumped in his own party's primary shortly thereafter. Granted, I have not ever lived in Alaska, but to suggest that Murkowski is some kind of revered figured there is hard for me to believe. She barely won her first election anyway.
Furthermore, I would think Alaskans would want the millions and millions of acres owned by the federal government turned back over to the state, as Joe Miller advocates. Of course, that would deprive the state's federal representatives of a good deal of power, since when the land is given back, there's less of a use for "access" to US Senators.
Richard (former Alaskan)| 9.30.10 @ 10:52AM
Mark, you're absolutely right that Lisa Murkowski is no Ted Stevens. The circumstances of her appointment to the Senate still rankle many Alaskans, and my best guess is that she starts any election 20 percent in the hole because of that fact. She won her first election against a popular former Governor with a proven record of working with the oil industry. Alaska's a funny place. A significant source of money and energy on the conservative side of the street comes from folks with ties to the oil industry - which is a very different industry in Alaska than, say, in Texas and Oklahoma. Both of the latter states have large numbers of entreprenuerial independent companies, and the operating business culture of those companies, and the ideological leanings of their executives and managers differs from those of the major integrated oils. In Alaska the oil industry people form and express the values of a kind of managerial class that has largely disappeared in much of the Lower 48, but would be recognizable to a Rip van Winkle Republican resurrected from Eisenhower's time. With, to be sure, a stronger conservative tint and more leanings to social conservatism, to be sure - but sharing an operational outlook that is more practical than ideological. They're only part of the story. There is a strong libertarian 'leave-us-alone' contingent for whom Joe Miller speaks that tends to come from the Matanuska-Susitna valley and beyond (where Wasilla is, and not unlike the Houston or Atlanta exurbs in demographics and values). Those folks tend NOT to be employed in the industry, unless as wage earners working '2-and-2' on the North Slope, and tend to be younger and - lacking the presumed security of a corporate job - more acutely concerned about the economic direction the country is trending. Grossly oversimplified, there's your battle in Alaska: partly income and life-style driven, partly generational, partly geographic. But, God love Joe Miller, someone will invent a perpetual motion machine before federal suzerainty over Alaska public lands is transferred to the state. Which is why, for good or ill, the political efforts of former Sens. Stevens, Frank Murkowski, and former Governor Knowles were focused on getting the best deal for Alaska within the context of indefinite federal ownership. Joe Miller is a smart and capable man. But if he thinks anything is going to change regarding who owns Alaska in his career lifetime, I've got a Bridge to Nowhere he can invest in. Best regards, Richard.
Reneeca| 9.30.10 @ 1:06PM
I give Alaskans more credit than that. If anyone is more self-reliant and hard workers in their rugged life-style it is Alaskans. I believe they don't want a tax and spender like Murkowski and would bet on them not falling for this woman's stunt to keep her dynasty going. She is the typical beltway thinker that we need to get rid of. Trouble is, she like many other career politicians can't let go of their grip on power!
Joan| 10.1.10 @ 8:37AM
I agree with Reneeca and I think Alaskans deserve more credit than to vote for a sore loser who cannot accept defeat. They will not tolerate a raging RINO who wants to spend and tax them into oblivion.