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The Spectacle Blog
In his column for the main site, Jim Antle reminds us that Christine O’Donnell’s victory last night was part of a broader trend of conservative outsider candidates beating moderate/liberal establishment Republicans:
Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski fell to an unknown conservative named Joe Miller. Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson was badly beaten in his Senate race by upstart constitutionalist Rand Paul. Former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton lost a similar race to Ken Buck. Sharron Angle toppled Sue Lowden in Nevada. Sen. Bob Bennett didn’t even make it out of the Utah Republican state convention. Florida’s Charlie Crist and perennial Pennsylvania weathervane Arlen Specter have fled Republican Party to try to extend their political careers beyond primaries they had no hope of winning.
What makes O’Donnell’s win different is that in all of the other Senate races where the establishment candidate has been upset, Republicans are still either favored to win or at least have a realistic chance of winning. However, in the case of Deleware, O’Donnell’s victory has moved the seat from a likely GOP pickup oppourtunity to a likely defeat. And that raises a different set of questions. It isn’t just a matter of replacing a RINO with a more conservative candidate in a Republican or Republican trending state, but rather, whether it’s worth handing a seat to the Democrats in order to take a stand.
Maine Sens. Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins are two of the most frequently-cited examples of liberal Republicans, and sure, on many issues, they end up voting with Democrats. At the same time, they opposed ObamaCare and “card check,” among other Obama administration initiatives. If Snowe and Collins would have been defeated by conservatives in primaries, and liberal Democrats were in their place, they not only would have voted with Democrats on the issues that Snowe and Collins did, but also would have likely voted Democrat on other major issues, like ObamaCare and “card check.” So, there definitely are some drawbacks to the strategy of ousting liberal Republicans even in liberal Democratic states.
Yet even if O’Donnell goes on to lose the general election, as I expect that she will, my hope would be that the base’s willingness to let Republicans lose a Senate seat would make it less likely that elected Republicans would take their seats for granted, and in that sense make them more responsive to conservatives. In this way, conservatives could end up with a more right-leaning body of elected officials, even if there aren’t the maximum number of Republicans.
albert constantine jr.| 9.15.10 @ 5:10PM
Castle's loss stems largely from the fact that he spent more time across the aisle than he did on his own side. He calculated time and again how to pander to the left with his votes on Cap & trade, Iraq, etc. , thinking that he could expand the margin of victory. He always assumed that the conservative Republican base had no choice but to back him, because there was nowhere else to go. This primary, his first in nine terms of Congress, showed him that as soon as there was somewhere else to go, more than 30,000 of the 57,000 voting in the primary went there.
ECM| 9.15.10 @ 5:17PM
I wish all you 'down on OD' people would wait for at least a few weeks and see if the gap closes somewhat before writing her obit--that would be, I dunno, semi-responsible rather than writing her off less than 24 hours after she won the primary. (Even if, in your case Mr.Klein, your remarks are at least somewhat tempered compared to some others.)
Tim Williams | 9.15.10 @ 5:22PM
I'm with you. We’ll know in November whether Delaware is ready to vote for a Conservative for Senate, but we already know that day would a lot farther off if Republican primary voters weren’t ready to vote for a Conservative today.
thirteen28| 9.15.10 @ 5:29PM
... ditto, ECM - particularly after she just raked in over $500K in donations less than 24 hours after winning the primary.
Tim*| 9.15.10 @ 5:17PM
The Polls And Media have repeatedly underestimated Our Tea Party Votes and Financial Support of Tea Party Candidates .
Of Delaware's Three Counties , Kent and Sussex Counties are pretty much O'Donnell Land and She can focus on New Castle County .
The Moneybombs for O'Donnell are landing as we speak and She can focus her Campaign on Delaware Jobs .
Tim Williams | 9.15.10 @ 5:19PM
I think that's a useful perspective.
Some GOP gurus argue (wrongly) that Delaware primary voters weren’t thinking strategically; they weren’t keeping in mind how important it is to get that 51st vote in the Senate. But that sort of thinking isn’t strategic at all – it’s tactical; it’s thinking only about this year. It isn’t strategic to ignore even the next five years of Castle’s potential term in office, much less the 2016 election.
Delaware primary voters made a choice for 2020, and 2016, and 2012 – and maybe this year, too. That remains to be seen.
This is what change looks like. It doesn’t happen all at once, but it has to start someplace. First you take the hill, then you take the bridge, then you cross the bridge. Always be advancing - that's how you win the war.
Teflon93| 9.15.10 @ 5:56PM
Sorry, but the goal isn't perpetual Republican majorities. We don't need RINOs because that isn't the goal.
The goal is to shift this country from center-right to right. We're winning the debate and the power flows from that.
Much of the anger and energy you see out there today is the American people waking up to the fact that their political leadership is not only out of touch with them, but often completely at odds with their values.
The GOP will benefit from the housecleaning that's coming. The Establishment GOP needs to go.
Since Obama's president until 2012, 40 rocksolid conservative Republicans to sustain a filibuster is better than 67 power-mad squishes who won't overturn Obama's veto even though they have the numbers to do so, nor forward legislation to repeal Obama's agenda.
For 2010-12, what is needed is firm opposition to Obama.
In 2012, it will be advancement of conservative principles on all fronts.
We have 25 months to make the case for 2012; the RINOs will only undermine it.
Intel| 9.16.10 @ 1:15AM
You got your wish of 40 GOP Senators and a more pure House minority the last two years. Moderate GOP Senators like Coleman, Smith, Sunnunu replaced by liberal Senators. The entire Northeastern Republican House delegation decimated and replaced by the most liberal members of the House. What you got was an abominable piece of legislation Obamacare that was rammed down the throats of America. Losing elections always have consequences and America paid a steep price for a more pure minority party in the Congress.
dad29| 9.16.10 @ 8:54AM
Let's add to Antle's list:
Rebecca Kleefisch, a political novice, defeated the Ruling Class (R)--one Brett Davis--in Wisconsin. Davis was endorsed by Tommy Thompson, a "moderate (R)" and a supporter of the Obama Fantasy ChooChoo.
Wisconsin's next Governor will also derail that train.
Read 'em and weep.
TLS| 9.16.10 @ 10:05AM
I'm a daily reader to this site, in particular the AmSpecBlog. But I have to reluctantly admit that, over the last few days, it has become considerable less enjoyable to do so. What should have been yet another wild celebration on the advancement of conservative values instead has become “the one that got away” or “maybe in 2012,” much to the delight of liberals everywhere.
Well, I, for one, have drawn tired of this sort of talk. But you say “I’m just being realistic.” Then let us recall back in 2007 when the then Senator Barack Obama was a distant to the then Senator Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination for President. At the time the dems were struggling with their own identity worried that Clinton would bring too much “baggage” from the Wild Bill era while BHO was certainly too liberal and could thus never win in a general election. Well, we all know what happened, don’t we?
So to say that O’Donnell can’t win, or any other Tea Party backed candidate, is short-sighted at best, and just plain idiotic at worst.
“Yet even if O'Donnell goes on to lose the general election, as I expect that she will…” Mr. Klein, may you eat crow. Do you need a drink to wash that down?
james wilson| 9.16.10 @ 11:05AM
The vote was not about O'Donnell, the vote was about Rove and the company men. Republican primary voters have no interest in "winning" the Senate with Rinos.