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The Spectacle Blog
Daniel Larison is skeptical that Republicans will experience major gains in November because he quite sensibly has no confidence in the GOP leadership. But when you look at the leanings of likely voters not just in generic ballot tests but also in a few pivotal races, I wonder to what extent the national anti-Democratic mood can overcome the Republicans' perennial flaws.
As poorly as Tom Reynolds and Tom Cole fared at the helm of the National Republican Congressional Committee, Machiavelli himself could not have come up with a political strategy that was going to save the Republicans in 2006 or 2008. That wasn't Reynolds' or Cole's doing as much as George W. Bush's. Things got so bad that the Democrats won a number of districts with underlying Republican sympathies -- the very places where they are most at risk now.
Aside from Republican mistakes, one of the things that benefited the Democrats in most of the special elections they've won since Obama has been president is that they ran non-incumbents who were free to move as far from the national party brand as suited local preferences. This will be a tougher sell for incumbent Blue Dogs. Only three of them -- Walt Minnick of Idaho, Bobby Bright of Alabama, and Gene Taylor of Mississippi -- voted against stimulus, the health care bill, and cap and trade. (A fourth, Parker Griffith, switched parties and subsequently lost the Republican primary.)
This accounts for why Minnick looks pretty good considering his deep-red district. But more common is someone like Brad Ellsworth of Indiana, who defected only on cap and trade. Ellsworth is losing badly to a flawed Republican candidate in the race for Senate and his congressional district now leans toward a Republican pickup. Even Travis Childers, who only voted for the stimulus, is below 50 percent in the internal poll his campaign released to show the Mississippi Democrat's strength. The Republican's internal polling, predictably, shows the opposite result.
Finally, in a surprising number of races the Republican nominee is the not the candidate the party leadership wanted. In some cases, that will be a liability but in others it will be an asset. Will there be a tsunami? I don't know, and the funding disadvantages faced by the party campaign committees and Republican challengers in key districts are reasons to doubt it. But as I said in 2006 and 2008, if your base is dispirited, the other party's base is fired up, and swing voters hate you, you cannot do well in an election.
That description fit the Republicans then and the Democrats now. Even if the Republicans blow some races, the Democrats are going to lose seats. It is just a matter of how many.
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More Blog Posts by W. James Antle, III
http://spectator.org/blog/2010/09/09/a-tsunami-strong-enough-to-was
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JP| 9.9.10 @ 2:11PM
Again,
Here is my prediction. The GOP will pick up 30-35 seats in the House, and 5-6 in the Senate. Pelosi and Reid will survive to fight another battle. The Senate pick ups for the GOP will be Coats (IN), Castle (DE), Fiorina (CA), Paul (KY)Hoeven (ND), and Kirk (Il). The Senate GOP caucus will actually become slightly more liberal with the addition of Coats, Castle, and Fiorina. The House GOP caucus will be decidedly more conservative. But the lack of money will be the deciding factor. And it will take considerably more economic pain for voters to take another chance on the GOP, which at the national level is totally out of synch with its grass roots.
Call me pessimistic, but somehow I don't trust these poll numbers. I think pollsters are not taking time to poll enough battle ground districts to get an accurate feel. The numbers are being skewed. At when Armegeddon fails to materialize, the Dems and the MSM will part like it is 1999 (or perhaps 1932 would be more apropos). But the celebrations will be short lived. The failure of the GOP will send the markets south in a hurry (I think the markets are anticipating a GOP landslide). By Spring, things will get ugly.
But, on the brightside, the days of Transofrmative politics are over. Cap and Trade and Card Check will never happen. The filibuster will become a permanent feature from 2011-2012. Gridlock will set in. And the President and his party will have to decide what it will be: our nation's economic future or politics? I don't think they will learn. The 2010 Midterms will be just one last warning shot across the Democratic bow. The 2012 elections, if the Dems continue to play games will be thier 1932. Unfortuantely, we will have to suffer in the mean time.
Sean| 9.9.10 @ 2:43PM
Paul(KY) would not be considered a pick up since he would be replacing Bunning.
somnolence| 9.9.10 @ 10:56PM
Rubio will be a pickup in Florida; he is currently leading in double digits.
somnolence| 9.9.10 @ 11:02PM
No, my mistake. Like Bunning in Kentucky that wouldn't be a pickup. There is still a good chance for a GOP pickup in Nevada, there is a lot of seething under the sands about Harry Reid which will reach a tumult on Election Day.
Yosemeti Sam| 9.10.10 @ 1:46AM
... Will there be a tsunami? ...."
Hmmmm.
One senses the electorate have long memories - like Elephants!
Democrats did not 'care' about the electorates' 'sensitivities' to being stomped upon by oppressive Democrat legislation.
The electorate, in kind, will not be 'sensitive' to Democrats being - stomped out of office.
The real October 'surprise' will be on Halloween Day - when the electorate will savor some candy bars and relish that they're only 'snake eyes' days from applying their own venom to the snakes in Congress.
BOO! - to the Democrats.
Viva - the Great American Franchise!