-
SEQUESTER: The Horror!
March 1, 2013 | 4 comments
-
SOTU Preview: Human Props, Budget Fights, and Wedge Issues
February 12, 2013 | 0 comments
-
Hello, I Must Be Going
August 14, 2012 | 18 comments
-
Weekend Political Wrap-Up, Paul Ryan Edition
August 12, 2012 | 16 comments
-
Esquire Blogger Sees Paul Ryan, Shreds His Safety Net
August 11, 2012 | 13 comments
The Spectacle Blog
According to the latest Gallup poll, Republicans now lead by ten points in the generic ballot — 51 percent to 41 percent. That is the largest lead Republicans have ever had in sixty years of polling on this question by Gallup. Much smaller leads, such as in 1994 and 2002, have translated into significant Republican gains.
Yet as one Robert Stacy McCain recently reminded us, polls are not campaigns. The Republican ground game is nowhere near the level of the Democrats in 2008 or the Bush-era GOP in 2004. There is no evidence the Tea Party has compensated for this. Many Republican challengers in key swing districts remain underfunded. The Republicans’ national campaign committees are generally at a disadvantage to their Democratic counterparts and it has shown in most of the recent House special elections. Quin mentions some other factors cutting strongly against Republicans here.
Then again, I’ll repeat the same thing I was saying to Republican dead-enders in 2006: If your base is disenchanted, the other side’s base is fired up, and swing voters hate you, you are going to lose elections. We are seeing Republican primary turnout in states like Colorado and Washington exceed Democratic turnout. In Colorado, the losing Republican Senate candidate, Jane Norton, got more votes than the Democratic winner, incumbent Sen. Michael Bennet.
Republican complacency could still blow the midterms elections. I fully expect Republicans to lose some races that they would have won in either 1994 or 2002. But there does come a point where the national mood is so powerful that not even the Republicans can bungle it. Take a look at the rare special election victory for Republicans, Scott Brown in Massachusetts: it came in a case where the swing voters were fed up, the Democratic candidate was a walking turnout-depresser, and the national GOP got involved too late to screw things up. Whether that happens on a massive enough scale to flip a house of Congress remains to be seen. But the proper Republican mood at this point is neither triumphalism nor despair.
View all comments (20) | Leave a comment
More Blog Posts by W. James Antle, III
http://spectator.org/blog/2010/08/31/gallup-republicans-take-ten-po
Follow us:
ADVERTISEMENT
Current Issue
- Downton’s Class System — and Ours
- We Have Her Example
- Public Nuisances
SPONSORED LINKS
FLASHBACK TO: 1995
-
Pope Culture
A man of faith in a godless age is hitting Americans where it hurts.
-
Why the GOP Does Not, Like, Totally Suck
Mr. and Mrs. American Spectator Reader, let P.J. O’Rourke talk sense to your kids.
-
Dames at Sea
-
In the Absence of Guns
In Britain, defending your property can get you life.
-
The Metaphysical Martini
-
Counting the Costs of Clintonism
The debacle of this president’s administration is both a cause and a symptom of the decline of American values. Unless Congress impeaches him, that decline will go on unchecked. An eminent jurist surveys the damage and assesses the chances for the recovery of our culture.
-
Chuck McHagel
It won’t take long for conservatives to scratch this presidential wannabe off their 2008 scorecard.
-
The Legacy of Old John and Mother Fresh-Roasted
-
It’s the Best Time of the Year
The American Christmas, like the songs that celebrate it, makes room for everybody under the rainbow. Is that why so many people seem to be hostile to it?
-
The Bush Crack-Up
Was the President done in by the economy, or by the politics of the economy?
Clip of the Day
ADVERTISEMENT
LiveFreeOrDie| 8.31.10 @ 1:52PM
"Take a look at the rare special election victory for Republicans, Scott Brown in Massachusetts: it came in a case where the swing voters were fed up, the Democratic candidate was a walking turnout-depresser, and the national GOP got involved too late to screw things up. "
What's changed since then? Nothing! If anything more people are paying attention, not less. I think the repub's outlook is brighter than you suggest. Read your own article and the poll you cited!
martin j smith| 8.31.10 @ 1:59PM
This is a referendum not the usual election. So, since we do not have a national vote of confidence or no-confience it is refelcted in party support--as a yes or no to socialism--Thus the ten point spread is a sign ofincreasingly NON to Socialism. Lets keep it that way.!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Derek Leaberry| 8.31.10 @ 2:03PM
Be wary of Obama altering the political landscape in October by attacking Iran for the benefit of Democratic candidates.
Tim*| 8.31.10 @ 4:40PM
Yeah , that will really help The National Debt and Deficit Spending .
Take A Hike .
Tim*| 8.31.10 @ 2:23PM
Americans are gonna vote their wallets in The Midterms .
It's The Economy .
Aaaaaand Jobs .
Americans will start focusing after Labor Day .
The Tea Party Rebellion will generate " The Focus ".
This could be Historic.
Make American History On November 2nd .
Siegfried X| 8.31.10 @ 3:21PM
I just found out that the Republican governor candidate in my state supports amnesty for illegal aliens. That's another third party vote for me, which is too bad because he is a strong conservative on most other issues.
LiveFreeOrDie| 8.31.10 @ 3:45PM
Why vote third party over something that's irrelevant? I understand your frustration but keep in mind your Governor doesn't have a vote in Federal legislation.
Siegfried X| 8.31.10 @ 4:16PM
Many mayors and governors refuse to enforce the laws, proudly saying they run "sanctuary cities". That includes RINOs like Rudy Giuliani.
Voting for a government official who won't enforce the law is voting for a criminal.
Oldefarte| 8.31.10 @ 3:25PM
These poll numbers will mean absolutely nothing unless [as Glen Beck said following his DC rally] Americans [taxpayer-voters] don't go to the voting booths in November and flush the rats out of our government!!!!!!!!!!
WEB armchair warrior| 8.31.10 @ 6:47PM
You TeaBagger brains are fried. Too many pharmecuetical ads on TV, and you take most of them.
Can not wait for you big mouths, who keep talking how you are ciming to shoot us Democrats. That alway's makes me have a good laugh, but then i get so relaxed from laughing at you fools, i eat too much BBQ.
Lullabys, Legends and Lies| 8.31.10 @ 8:02PM
Go on, keep eating that BBQ in your armchair, while laughing at us "TeaBaggers". That way we don't have to waste the bullet (that you say we want to shoot you with), instead your heart will take you out for us. That sounds like a fair deal, huh? Mmm, Barbecue!!
Tim*| 8.31.10 @ 8:09PM
More Fruity Trash Talk from an ObamaBoy Blubber.
We'll answer ya on November 2nd .
The Tea Party Rebellion Escalates .
We Remember In November .
Lullabys, Legends and Lies| 8.31.10 @ 8:42PM
You talking to me Tim*? I sure hope not!! I'm assuming you're talking to Armchair Idiot above, but you didn't specify that (leaving me wondering). Because if you are talking to me saying "fruity trash talk", and "Obamaboy blubber", well then, them there are fighting words (don't you think?), and I'll have to come up there and put you into a chokehold, until your damn asterisk falls off. But if you were talking about Armchair Idiot, well then, I totally agree with you, and your asterisk is safe!!
WEB armchair warrior| 9.1.10 @ 12:46PM
Oh my goodness! we're doomed :+(