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Artur Davis Says Scandals Are Real
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The Spectacle Blog
In a very astute column, Reid Wilson provides four excellent reasons why Democrats are still at least an even-money bet to hold onto the House of Representatives. What it boils down to is that all three major party committees on the Republican side have substantially underperformed. They haven’t raised enough money. They have spent way too much money. They have wasted money picking fights in primaries rather than saving it for the general election. And of course they have paid for the care, feeding, preening and pampering of Michael Steele.
I’ve been saying exactly the same things for weeks that Wilson said (minus his point about “modeling,” which hadn’t occurred to me). I’ve always added one more element Wilson doesn’t touch on: The thoroughly corrupt voting section of the thoroughly corrupt Obama-Holder Justice Department. I think Republican candidates will need to outperform Democrats among real, live voters by at least half a percentage point, and probably three-fourths of a point, in every single race in the country if they want to actually be allowed to take their seats. Otherwise, the dead voters, pets registered as voters, and phantom voters (such as those who figure out who hasn’t voted yet and pretend to be those people, especially for military stationed abroad whose votes haven’t been ensured) will throw close races to the Dems. Look for tons of trumped up “voter intimidation” charges against conservatives, while lefties get away with blatant, actual intimidation (as in the Black Panther case). Look for widespread obstruction of efforts by GOP poll watchers to ensure that no vote fraud occurs — i.e., look for vote fraud that actually is being spotted to STILL be allowed. Look for military votes not to be counted. Look for spurious challenges to right-leaning votes. This is a DoJ that refused to make Missouri abide by the part of the Motor Voter law that requires states to eliminate dead and otherwise inelgible voters from their rolls. This is a DoJ that told a black-majority North Carolina town that it could not choose to hold non-partisan elections because non-partisan elections would not result in the election of enough black Democrats. (In other words, the black majority of the town is too stupid, according to DoJ, to know how to protect its own best interests.) And so on. As in the gubernatorial election in Washington State in 2004 and the Senate race in Minnesota in 2008, every single vote dispute will be decided by DoJ and/or malleable judges in favor of the Dems, regardless of what is fair, right, or lawful.
If I remember correctly, the GOP sweep in 1994 included victories in a whole slew of notably close races. What I’m saying is that almost all the close races will be credited as Dem victories this time, even if only by both hook and definitely crook. Combine that with the GOP’s pathetic get-out-the-vote organization this year (especially when compared to what they had in 2004); and with the extreme bias-bordering-on-outright-corruption of an establishment media that will aid and abet every cheap-shot attempt to slime conservative candidates and make them unattractive to “moderates” and “independents” — plus the fact that so many conservative candidates this time are political neophytes and thus more apt to make deadly political miscues — and what you have in massive combination of all these things is a huge counterweight to the otherwise overwhelming conservative, anti-establishment, anti-Washington, anti-Obama trend sweeping the country.
Of course I’m not suggesting that Republicans won’t pick up dozens of net seats in the House (and at least five net seats, maybe more, in the Senate) — but I AM saying that getting to 40 (and 10 in the Senate) is still quite a tall order, and that it will be a close-run thing for the majority.
(There — I’ve just cost myself some money by encapsulating what could have been a separate, paid column into an unpaid blog entry. Oh, well…..)
View all comments (38) | Leave a comment
More Blog Posts by Quin Hillyer
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Siegfried X| 8.26.10 @ 10:35AM
Gee, this sounds like the same tactics that the RINO Republican leadership uses against conservative Republican candidates in the primaries. At every step of the process the RINO leadership uses the rules, money, and their influence to discourage, deflect, and defeat conservative candidates. One tactic mentioned in this column is saying that primaries are a waste of money (so the conservatives should give up and accept the establishment's RINO candidate).
Margie| 8.26.10 @ 10:56AM
Twisted, as usual.
stuart horton| 8.27.10 @ 9:53AM
Look at the poll numbers, moron. The progressives fall farther behind everyday. Of course the elitist progressive class holds its nose at polls because they reflect the opinion of the common man. How is Obama going to blame Bush after he extendss the tax cuts in a desperate attemt to avoid disaster. The only chance the dems have is to use Acorn and union operatives to manipulate the close elections like they did in Minn. to put that not too funny commedian Al Franken in office.
NVA Patriot| 8.26.10 @ 10:39AM
2 Words - Tea Party
In NY-23 The TP got beat for the reasons you site - we learned - we got Scott Brown in on teh establishment vs. TP rematch.
In PA-12, TP got another lesson in dirty dealing - we learned, in MO we crushed the establishment despite games played with wording
In short - the tea party teams aren't your 60's radical hippies who look to avoid work and steal for a living. We are the people who make the country work desite the progressive abuses and attacks we have endured for two generations
We succeeded despite those abuses all the while believing they were well intentioned rules. We know the truth now and we are acting on it.
We learn faster, work harder, and we're coming for the progrssives - and if you doubt what we're capable of in close elections - Look at the MI-01 primary where the union thug backed candidate backed down from the Tea Party candidate
More of that is coming- As Patton (movie version) said - "I feel sorry for those bastards, I really do"
We are going to do the work and take our country back - establishment Republicanism will adapt or die - that's why they have no $, they have no small gov, constitutional principles - we do.
Jocon307| 8.26.10 @ 12:51PM
AMEN! AMEN! AMEN!
This election is only going to be one campaign of what we tea partiers envision as a long, hard war to take control of our country, our gov't and our lives back from the liberal horde.
No, we are not going to win every race.
Yes, we going to try very hard to regain control of the republican party. But that is not the main thing right now, that can wait until after November.
And no, I for one don't feel sorry for those bastards.
As an old boss of mine once said: when I see them standing on the corner selling pencils for a nickel, then I'll say GOOD!
JP| 8.26.10 @ 10:41AM
Quinn,
We are in complete agreement. I find it odd that the GOP as a whole is partaking in such trimphalism. National polls mean nothing in local elections. And I have yet to see the kind of national victories the GOP is predicting.
IMHO, the GOP will pick up 25-30 House seats, and at best 5 Senate seats. However, they will come out on top in most statehouses and govenorships. For me, at this juncture, that is more important. Besides, with Pelosi and Reid still running Congress there will be no place for Obama and his party to hide. And with reduced majorities (no more automatic filibusters), it will be very difficult to Obama to push his transformative agenda.
The real races will be in 2012, when the Dems must defend 25 Senate seats. In the meantime, the MSM will dance thier victory jig (thier loses will be celebrated as victories thanks in part to high GOP expectations) right into one crisis after another.
The year 2012 for the Dems could be akin to 1932 for the GOP. But for now, the GOP should rid itself of Steele, fundraise, and recruit crediable candidates (enough of the Rand Pauls).
Ken (Old Texican)| 8.26.10 @ 11:01AM
Hey, Quin.
...you forgot something.
Most of us are donating to INDIVIDUAL CAMPAIGNS!
Screw the national R committee. I even send a few bucks to DeMint's conservative coalition.
Bottom line: If the Demos win...they lose.
I hope you will review my new novel here.
My working title is "The Nays of Texas".....but I am also trying to get another title ...shorter:
"WALKING INTO A NIGHTMARE WITH EYES WIDE OPEN"
I hope it makes you puke. Every time I write a new chapter...I have nightmares....and wake up in a cold sweat.
loulou| 8.26.10 @ 1:02PM
You're exactly right. I've given ZERO to the RNC and the NRSC. I pick and choose the candidates I donate to.
MacAoidh | 8.26.10 @ 2:10PM
Very good point, Ken.
While Quin is exactly right that the corruption endemic to the Obama administration and the Democrat machines in the states involved, the groundswell building right now is likely to put a great many Republican candidates outside the margin of corruption. While an ACORNing of a race might net a Democrat candidate as much as a three percent margin, that's of little use when you're being throttled by seven points or more. The Virginia, New Jersey and Massachusetts races were all decided far outside the danger zone.
Margie| 8.26.10 @ 11:03AM
GREAT post, Quin and much appreciated. It is very much needed. I'm not so great with words but just to say thank you because what you wrote is the stark reality of our situation. Let them call us RINO'S, let them call us traitors and whatever~ but we all MUST get out the vote and it MUST be Republican, starting in November and from now on. There is NO other way to defeat the Leviathan known as the Democrat party. THEY are the enemy politically speaking and we all know it.
Never mind about the imperfectness of the candidates, if that bothers a person so much then get involved in making sure the most conservative Republican wins in the primaries, and on.
We need to take our country back!
Thanks, Quin!
Curly Smith| 8.26.10 @ 11:34AM
The GOP's fund raising has been sub-par for the simple reason that GOP's message has been sub-par. As yet, they haven't given the public any reason to vote for them except "we're not the Democrats".
Over the past decade the informed contributor has learned, much to the dismay of the GOP, that "we're not the Democrats" is only a winning message for the Party - it's a losing message for Conservatives and a disaster for the country.
Hopefully after Labor Day the GOP will unleash their Conservative Message. But unless they enact new rules to enforce party doctrine then even 65 Republican votes will not be enough to control the Senate and the GOP will fade to obscurity as they implement their agenda of fiddling around the margins. The people are eager for action, they won't accept the same-old, same-old even if it's the other party doing the same-old.
Lesser Weevil| 8.26.10 @ 12:45PM
Labor Day of which year?
Siegfried X| 8.26.10 @ 12:58PM
Yes, it has been 14 years since Republicans had a conservative agenda (the Contract With America). Ever since then every year, every election we are told "Wait until next year".
Mark in LA| 8.26.10 @ 1:36PM
Yes they had an agenda. One that meant absolutely nothing once they were sworn into office.
Siegfried X| 8.26.10 @ 1:45PM
Actually the Gingrich congress accomplished a lot. They kept their promises, like the Contract With America, passed the Defense of Marriage Act, and greatly reduced Bill Clinton's spending. In fact the Republican budget cuts were the only reason that the budget was balanced back then.
Problem was that the Democrats, along with Gingrich's own weakness, destroyed Gingrich after only a single two-year Congress.
Anyone interested in real budget cuts, not just internet libertarian fantasies, should study the 2005 Congress (along with the Reagan Administration). That's REAL budget-cutting, not just day dreaming.
CalMark| 8.26.10 @ 12:15PM
You folks in the Beltway Punditocracy have forgotten one crucial rule: "All Politics is local."
The RNC is dead in the water because it is run by an idiot. The NRCC and NRSC aren't much better. Not so much, "So what?" as "We shall overcome."
As someone noted above, people are giving their money to specific candidates. The GOP establishment has shown itself unworthy of support, so we're not supporting them.
In case you ever wondered, this is what a party takeover looks like.
Oldefarte| 8.26.10 @ 1:02PM
Quin, you once again hit the bullseye dead center with your truth; and THAT IS PRECISELY WHY IT IS IMPERITIVE FOR AMERICAN TAXPAYER-VOTERS TO GO TO THE POLLS EN MASSE AND VOTE FOR CANDIDATES THAT WILL SURPASS YOUR NOTED LOGJAMS! Forget political parties, everyone should begin now to contact/communicate with their friends/relatives/work-school mates/church members, etc to form their own [non-registered] political party of sorts. We absolutely have to change what is now occurring in federal, state and local governments, and the only way to do so is to ban together and VOTE. The current situation dictates that we initially vote for Republican candidates only [I plan on simply filling in/voting for the straight Republican Party candidates]; since the Democratic Party has now been taken over by lunitic radical extremists nationally [even if a state/local Democrat is likeable/popular, same will be manipulated/controlled by the DP's nationals leaders of Pilosi, Reid,etc; so a Democratic vote is useless toward solving our current problems]. If, after being elected a Republican tends to vote for the dark side [aka Liebermann, Graham, Snowe,etc], then same should thereafter be denied national Republican financial/political support and thereby eliminated/defeated. If the national RNC proves problematic, it will be much easiar to fix/repair that it will be having to deal with the DNC; so everyone should strongly consider voting the straight Republican ticket on their ballots as a beginning/starting point from which future changes if neccessary can be made!!!!!
Eric Cartman for the GOP| 8.26.10 @ 1:08PM
Hi - I'm Eric Cartman. You may know me from such shows as "South Park" and movies such as "South Park: Bigger Longer & Uncut". Or one of my many posts here on the always refreshing American Spectator. I'd like to speak to you about America's future.
As you may too painfully know, the Democrats have totally screwed-up this country. Don't believe me? Take a stroll through downtown Detroit. That's your future. From welfare to schools to war (which they voted for and then made almost impossible to win costing thousands of lives) to health care reform no one wanted or needed, the Democrats are miserable, traitorous liars. And they are lead by a Leftist, happy loving radical , Obama, and his impossibly hideous henchwoman, Ugly Pelosi.
So what do you do as an American wishing to help your country and your family our of this mess. Vote Republican? Well, let's take a look at the GOP.
The Republicans are gutless turds who have no balls - we all know that. The only GOPers with balls are Sarah Palin, Michele Bachmann and their band of pissed-off Moms - the actual people with literally no balls. Just pathetic. But I digress. We all know and hate the male cheerleaders and insurance salesmen who occupy the highest levels of the Republican Party. They are so lacking any testes they can't even hold their own against pathetic whiners like Chris Mathews - God help us! And yes, leaders such as George Bush snuggled up to Amnesty, slobbered over the Department of Education (that educates not a single person), held hands with Ted *hic* Kennedy , wouldn't defend himself, conservatives or loyal employees such as the ridiculously nicknamed "Scooter" Libby against Lefty Ahole Democrats and not last, and certainly not least, didn't call out these same Lefty Aholes who attempted to undermine two wars they themselves voted for. George Bush was so pathetic he even taunted his base who didn't want his amnesty bill by saying "See you at the signing" when asked about the bills lack of support. Absolutely fucking disgusting.
So what do we do? Well, I guess we vote for the Republican with a stern warning about what happens to them if they don't do as we say. We are, after all, their boss. I'm not saying give ANY money to the GOP - give to the candidates. People like Allen West and Michele Bachmann - give them support and cash. Lots of cash. Don't give the party one-red-fucking-cent! They'll just spend it on RINOs.
Which brings me to the last topic - RINOs. If you are unlucky enough to live in an area where you only have a RINO running, hold your nose and vote for them - we can deal with them later. Baseball bats and nails are cheap.
Then, after November, we can all meet in D.C. and hunt down the Democrat losers and beat them until they pass out - only to let them wake up and beat them some more. Before we do that, however, we pay a visit to the GOP HQ and try out the baseball bats with nails through the end to see how they work. And do you know why? Because the GOP is responsible for us having to do this in the first place, the stupid assholes.
Unfortunately, this is the only chance of saving this country. I'm Eric Cartman and I approve this message.
JimH| 8.26.10 @ 1:38PM
When forced to vote for a RINO type, I would recomend voting for them on another line, Conservative for instance, if available. It may help to show where the support comes from.
Mr. Sir| 8.26.10 @ 1:48PM
You mean let Bush steal the 2000 election, by usurping the Constitution, which specifically gives the States the power to set up the Presidential election. Thus making the Florida Supreme Court the final arbiter of the Bush v. Gore litigation.
Or how Diebold had a memo leaked by one of it's executive moles saying, "we will deliver Ohio for Bush", thus sealing the theft of Ohio, and four more years of pillage and plunder by the Bushist regime?
Eric Cartman| 8.26.10 @ 1:54PM
Can't get over it, can you? I can't wait to watch you and your friend's heads explode after November. After all, with Bush living in them for so long, there is only so much room left. Hee hee hee.
Warrior | 8.26.10 @ 2:34PM
If the Gore campaign and Florida courts would have abided by the actual state laws of Florida, the Supreme Court would never have had to be involved. Since you are so keen on enforcement of state laws, are you calling for Al Franken to be removed from his senate seat for the obvious fraud and misapplication by the courts of Minnesota's laws? Are you jumping to defend the vote of Californians to bar same sex marriage that has been voided by an activist judge with no basis in the law?
Bunky| 8.27.10 @ 5:53AM
After the 2010 congressional and state wins,
the republicans will make 2012 very interesting for the likes of Mr sir.
Get that duct tape out and start wrapping your head. You are not going to like the next few election cycles.
Regards and enjoy.
sestamibi| 8.26.10 @ 2:05PM
Back in 1992 I sent several check for small contributions to the NRSCC to be forwarded to the respective campaigns. Not one made it, so you can imagine what I think of the NRSCC and its incompetence. At least today we have the Web to find out the contact addresses of individual campaigns, so the NRSCC is even more irrelevant.
I agree that GOP takeover of both houses is a long shot. However, things will get quite interesting if Dem numbers are 52 in the senate and 225 in the house, respectively. They won't have the strength to bulldoze the opposition as easily as they have recently. Watch for a lot of lame duck session maneuvering.
Wally| 8.26.10 @ 2:30PM
Oh, I know, let's vote in Republicans so that we can:
-Invade a country that did not threaten us and spend a $ trillion occupying it.
- Demonize 1 billion muslims for the vicious acts of a tiny minority of criminals, thereby engendering the hate by ignorant whites of all dark skinned Americans and engendering the hate of all billion muslims against America.
- Have sex and drugs with oil lobbyists and meanwhile cut regulations for deepwater offshore drilling so we can destroy the lives of 100s of thousands of gulf residents.
- Deregulate investment banks and mortgage brokers so that investment bankers can come up with new Pyramid schemes that threaten the entire U.S. banking system.
- Ignore warnings by NSC analysts that "Bin Ladin to Attack U.S. Using Planes."
- Continue to offer up the slaughter of young American soldiers in Afghanistan while doing NOTHING to catch Bin Ladin or reduce the terror threat
- Crush scientists in federal agencies who don't agree with David and Charles Koch and their $10 billion petrochemical business (these guys fund the Spectator of course) and let millions wash away in floods and hurricane.
-During TWO wars, cut taxes for people who make over $250,000 which is THE biggest cause of the deficit today.
Yeah, vote Republican
PO the Left by Cartman, Inc.| 8.26.10 @ 2:49PM
Another fine head occupancy brought to you by Cartman, Inc.! When you want to annoy the traitorous Left, just call Cartman, Inc and watch them rant until they explode! Fun for the whole family! But wait! That's not all! Order now and get a 24/7 supply of Fox News and 15 hours of Rush to really set them off! More fun that a barrel of monkeys! How do we know? Because we captured a barrel of moneys, shipped them over by an old, oil burning tramp-steamer, running over as many Blue whales as we could on the way back. Then parked the leaking ship atop 40 manatees all the while we left our SUVs running on the shore! That's how! So call us for all your Lefty head-popping needs!
Call now at 888-THE LEFT ARE ASSHOLES! The first 100 callers will get a free coal mine to exploit!
Fartman is fun to kill time| 8.27.10 @ 3:21PM
But i hope it is not a mortal sin , but it is fun riling up the intellectually challenged blagger baggers here.
But they are just bored , living off their parents labor, some left them annuities and homes, and some are just living with them.
Most of these clowns never worked, as the apostle Paul advised, "with your hands", in their life.
Playing video games, blabbing,er blogging, and just wasting the hour in their Tea dour, and contributing nothing but hot air to the benegit of society.
Children, who like the message of Peter Pan, refuse to accept they must grow up someday.
Ken (Old Texican)| 8.26.10 @ 5:08PM
Hi Wally.
Thank you for clarifying things. YES...I will vote a straight Republican ticket.
Obama is Carter| 8.26.10 @ 10:02PM
So let me get this straight. Obama is responsible for the surge in Afghanistan, yet the clown who wrote the above post, Wally, is blaming Republicans for "continu[ing] to offer up the slaughter of young American soldiers..."
The current Dem administration has not done anything to catch Bin Laden, and if they have, they have been unsuccessful. But hey, Wally looks past that in order to continue blaming the Republicans for not catching Bin Laden. And he also evidently thinks killing terrorists and fostering democracy in Iraq does "nothing to reduce the terror threat".
And he also seems to believe opposition to building a mosque at Ground Zero, something opposed by 70% of the American public is "demoniz[ing] 1 billion Muslims." Sorry, but if you can't see why people, including most of the 9/11 families, would be opposed to building a massive mosque next to a spot where Muslims massacred 3000 Americans, y0u are an idiot. As for "engendering the hate of ignorant whites", seems he forgot to mention that, according to the latest CNN poll, about 60% of non-whites oppose the mosque. But as with the rest of his post, he doesn't let facts get in the way. Nor does he miss a chance to play the race card.
Wally also seems to neglect mentioning that Barack Obama received more money from BP than any other candidate in 2008 and that it was the Obama administration which waived the necessary safety and environmental regulations to allow the offshore drilling.
Wally also makes the absolutely hilarious claim that the Bush Tax cut for those making over $250,000 is the biggest cause of the deficit today, which aside from being demonstrably false, also ignores the unprecedented trillions Obama has spent since he has been in office. The fact that Obama spent more in his first year (actually it was a lot less time than that) than Bush did in the entirety of his second term? Yeah, that might have something to do with the unprecedented deficit. The monthly deficit last month was more than it was for all of 2007.
Clinton spent the entirety of his term ignoring terrorist threats to the United States, including those from Bin Laden. But when Bush receives non-specific, unactionable intelligence a few months after he enters office and then fails to do anything, even though he couldn't really do anything, it thus becomes his fault 9/11 occurred. The fact that pretty much all of the planning occurred during the Clinton administration? Let's ignore that. Wally sure does. Blaming Bush for 9/11 illustrates the left's most glaring double standard: Obama has been in office for over a year and a half, but the left claims he has no responsibility for the economy, yet 9/11 occured less than 8 months after Bush took office, and he is at fault for everything, according to the left.
The Obama Record: Unprecedented long-term unemployment, unprecedented deficits. In the words of the DEM's Senate candidate in CO: We have $13 Trillion in deficits and nothing to show for it. Yes that's right $13 Trillion. And Wally claims is mostly due to the Bush Tax cut. Sorry, but you are an idiot Wally.
Tom Mathers| 8.26.10 @ 4:40PM
"at least" even money to hold the House? Fine. Let's bet: $1,000, at even money. I take the Rs, you can have the Ds. We can escrow the money wherever you want. To the author and anyone else who want in.
Mark Anderson| 8.26.10 @ 9:23PM
Quinn, you aren't a girl, but you lie like one.
Obama is Carter| 8.26.10 @ 9:27PM
So the RNC is underperforming, thus the Republicans aren't going to win the majority. Give us all a monumental break. The NRSC, RGA and NRCC and individual Republican candidates are raising huge amounts of money. Politico just did an article this week detailing the massive amounts of money Republican house candidates are raising. They also did an article about how the Dems are scared stiff about the money outside organizations are spending for Republican candidates. But hey, the RNC is behind, so that obviously means the Dems are going to keep a majority in a year the Republicans are ahead on every generic ballot poll, the president is one of the most unpopular of all time and the economy is terrible. By the way, the RNC has roughly the same amount of cash on hand that the Dems did in 2006.
As for betting money, Intrade has the chances the Republicans will take the majority at around 75%. Seems the people who are willing to put their money where there mouth is aren't responding to the nonsensical "Republicans can't win the majority" nonsense. And the notion that Republicans are only going to win 25 House seats, as put forth by another commenter, is absolutely ludicrous.
But hey, let's press more and more bloggers to keep writing doom and gloom stories, because those work wonders for turnout.
Obama is Carter| 8.26.10 @ 9:35PM
You know what amazes me most about these types of articles? The authors ignore all the other articles out there detailing how much trouble the Dems are in to focus on the 2% of articles telling us how horrible the Republicans are ACTUALLY going to do this November. Seems the Dem strategists who told Politico that the Dem majority is toast didn't read the Reid Wilson article. What is this site going to link to next, more bogus articles about the non-existent "Civil War" in the GOP. And given the huge turnout in the Republican primaries and the near non-existent turnout for the Dem primaries, it is a bit odd someone would argue GOTV and turnout efforts have been unsuccessful.
The Republicans have about 5 endangered or competitive seats; the Dems have over 80; more by some counts.
Yosemeti Sam| 8.26.10 @ 11:53PM
" ... What it boils down to is that all three
major party committees on the Republican
side have substantially underperformed.
They haven't raised enough money...."
SO WHAT!
Democrats have - name RECOGNITION - among voters.
Ya think the GOP should scramble for campaign
monies to service ad placements - when the
voters' general and specific anger is already
fine-tuned against a demonstrated laser-job-focused, i.e. in between
vacations, lying anti-CONSTITUTIONAList power-usurping baby-ass-kicking
macho BHO and his pay-rolled bureaucratic flunkeys?
Tell me another FAIRY TALE!
sally| 8.27.10 @ 12:50PM
The gist of what Hillyer is saying is this:
The Democrats are ruthless and corrupt and regarding voting procedure they will rob, steal, destroy, plunder, dig up the dead and do anything they can to get the votes they want.
Some states but not all require a picture ID to vote.
If your state does not do so, get on it NOW and see that your local and or state governments get that piece of critical legislation passed or we will see Chicago style shenanigans in the voting booths.