The Spectacle Blog
Reading Jeffrey Goldberg’s long Atlantic Monthly article about prospects for an Israeli air strike against Iran’s nuclear program, the strongest arguments against such an attack come from military sources:
Israel would get only one try. Israeli planes would fly low over Saudi Arabia, bomb their targets in Iran, and return to Israel by flying again over Saudi territory, possibly even landing in the Saudi desert for refueling-perhaps, if speculation rife in intelligence circles is to be believed, with secret Saudi cooperation… .
[P]olitical limitations would not allow Israel to make repeated sorties over Iran. “The Saudis can let us go once,” one general told me. “They’ll turn their radar off when we’re on our way to Iran, and we’ll come back fast. Our problem is not Iranian air defenses, because we have ways of neutralizing that. Our problem is that the Saudis will look very guilty in the eyes of the world if we keep flying over their territory.” …
This doesn’t mean such an attack couldn’t take place, of course. But the fact that IDF generals clearly see the difficulties — including the diplomatic difficulties — of such an attack tends to suggest that it would be a last-resort measure. It isn’t very likely, and it isn’t likely to happen soon.
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Michel Ángelo| 8.20.10 @ 11:30PM
JAJAJA....Who said planes....?
InTheKnow| 8.21.10 @ 12:31AM
If it doesn't happen, Obama will be known as the one who gave Iran the nuclear bomb. But then again maybe that is what the Muslim in the Whitehouse wants...
martin j smith| 8.21.10 @ 8:37AM
Do you really believe amilitary person who actually knows what is going on in the minds of the"inner cicle" wil tell you the truth. I think not. Nor do I believe a words --at least public words by US defence people at all. All for public consumption. Here is the deal using ones imagination:
I believe there are plans a,b,c,d,e,f,g etc and always revised under the table ( or the radar ). I suspect that these plans are in the hands of no more than 6 people in Israel as we speak ( + or- )
I am guessing that some of these plans involve already on the ground in a near iran itself military personnell. They I believe are just waiting for orders.
Ken (Old Texican)| 8.21.10 @ 10:16AM
Martin,
Well stated.
In the actual real world, Israel simply has no choice. They have no choice.
How they try it and when they try are the only variables here.
I'm seriously wondering if they have sub-orbital missles...with nukes...and if they will choose to use them, because if they attack, they had better be overwhelmingly successful.
I encourage each reader here to go watch the video of Thomas Sowell over at NRO today. It is quite sobering.
John - TMF| 8.21.10 @ 3:35PM
Nope, sorry y'all. Israel is stuck. Their longest legged aircraft are F15's and (I don't doubt that they have seriously tinkered them into being Fighter Bombers) I really don't think that the trip to and from is feasible. The IAF modified F16 is more capable than our current model, but still woefully short on range for the job.
That leaves missiles, and although I could see it, I can't really SEE see it. Conventional warheads on ballistic missiles are a low powered crap shoot.
There is only one nation with the equipment to perform a heavy sustained airstrike on Iranian nuclear facilities, and it is us. Even the Russians don't have the B1B or B2.
Add to that the almost impossible chance that The One will ever do anything about Iranian anything. Iranians have been killing US and allied troops in Iraq and Afghanistan for years and we turn our heads.
Nope... nothing gets done. Fuss, feathers, and fumes. Diplo-blather and posturing will continue apace. However, nothing will actually really be done.
Iran gets nukes. Iran gets "the bomb", and we are left to cringe, waiting for the inevitable.
Folks, until New York City is a glowing radioactive pile of death are we ever really going to do anything. Given the long term Liberal reaction to 9/11/2001, I rather suspect that not much will be done by them, afterward either.
Sorry guys. The game is up. We are surrendering to weep in our hopelessness. The West has given up to be beaten to death by the mob.
Of course there is always "Regime Change". Ironically the reference is to The One's Regime, and not Iran's. It all starts now, November 2 is "Midway", November 2012 is "Guadalcanal". We have a very long way to go.
Regards,
The Mighty [Hope looks like small farm in Soutwest Virginia] Fahvaag
Esther Haman| 8.22.10 @ 12:12AM
So, you like to say that you are in the know and that you can SEE see that this was the only reason for the war not broking out yet! So, it has nothing to do with the fact that we were wrong the whole time about Iran and her intentions? Or that we knew deep in our guts that they are no threat to anyone and that is just a part of an attempt by the Iranians to stay alive and produce more electricity and be part of a productive and producing nations! It seems to me logic for once won.
Ken (Old Texican)| 8.22.10 @ 6:50AM
Salam Aleicham, Esther.
I can't make up my mind whether you and Chaim are simply as ignorant as a box of rocks, or simply very very crummy propagandists.
I suspect the later.
Chaim Haham| 8.21.10 @ 9:35PM
Israel has also nuclear centrals and bombs..
so why can a country who has been in war with every neighbour the last 50 year the right to posses such technology?
and a country who has not invaded any country the last 50 years not?
Jewish Internet Defence Force
Jews against Zionism
Esther Haman| 8.22.10 @ 12:01AM
Chaim Haham, "Jews against Zionism" I really like that. More power to you.
Esther Haman| 8.21.10 @ 11:58PM
InTheKnow, you think because the rogue Zionist apartheid entity has 200+ we must have had a Zionist or a Jewish president in the white house in the past??! Just what kind of mentality would right something like that?
T1Brit| 8.22.10 @ 4:03AM
If the Iranians get the latest s-300 missiles from Russia as they are hoping, it will not be a turkey shoot. It will be a dangerous mission with possibly many Israeli planes shot down.
martin j smith| 8.22.10 @ 8:03AM
Matt Drudge had an article about an Israeli Official stating that iroan's new Nuclear reaction was unacceptable and the "international community should take action". Any person with half a brain knows the Israelis have absolutely no faith in the "international community" nor di they trust the Obama administration. But the key issue is "unacceptable" as a " threat to Israel". in this article. Could this be a warning? Time will tell.
martin j smith| 8.22.10 @ 8:13AM
Chaim Haha !!!!!!!!!!! Thanks for your honesty. Thus your views aare dismissed as irrelevent to me. You know maybe you should have a different name like Liberal Reader or whoever so people don't who you may be. Of course you may Imam Rauf himself or Rom Emmanuel or you could be Adolph Hitlers relative for all I know. But the main thing is when times are hard the anti_semites 9 yes that is you Mr Ha ha( and by the way do you know of a british character- a traitor to England named Hau Hau ? or is it Haw Haw ? . Yeah your name brings to my mind that thought . Are you a holocaust denier " ? Just curious. And by the way you can use any name you want and call yourself any label but the truth is those who oppose the state of Israel, in my opinion are Anti-semites.. You May be Jewish, but you are not Kosher.