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Crist's Lieberman Impression

By W. James Antle, III on 8.2.10 @ 11:53AM

I've been skeptical of the idea that Charlie Crist could pull a Joe Lieberman this year. But the latest Quinnipiac poll in the Florida Senate race shows Crist close to meeting one of the prerequisites for doing so: he's within striking distance of becoming the de facto Democratic candidate, just as Lieberman was the de facto Republican candidate in Connecticut when he was reelected as an independent in 2006.

Crist narrowly leads with 37 percent of the vote while Republican Marco Rubio is at 32 percent and Democrat Jeff Greene at 17 percent. Kendrick Meek, the onetime Democratic frontrunner, would take just 13 percent. Crist's lead is based on getting about half the independent vote, 40 percent of Democrats, and 20 percent of Republicans.

Lieberman had better numbers in just about every category. He won 54 percent of independents, 70 percent of Republicans, and held onto 33 percent of voters who identified with his old party. Here's the key question: Do Florida Democrats basically concede the race to Crist the way Connecticut Republicans conceded to Lieberman? And whatever the party as a whole decides to do, will Jeff Greene or Kendrick Meek run as low-key a campaign as Republican Alan Schlesinger did in Connecticut?

Says Quinnipiac's Peter Brown, "Gov. Charlie Crist's small lead comes as neither Democrat breaks 20 percent in the trial heats. If that were to be the case in November, Gov. Crist would have a very good chance to win. But if the Democratic nominee can move into the mid-to-high 20s, Crist's chances decrease substantially."

Remember Arlen Specter -- who I think Crist more closely resembles -- didn't lose his lead until very late in this year's race.

View all comments (6) | Leave a comment

Red Phillips| 8.2.10 @ 2:04PM

While the ideologies are different, the numbers game is the same for Tancredo in Colorado. Basically the Republican nominee has to implode and Tancredo become the de facto Republican nominee for him to have a chance.

Mike| 8.2.10 @ 2:29PM

The talk of Lieberman reminds me of when I lost the love for the Republican Party. A liberal Democrat - 90 percent liberal rating, Lieberman lost to Lamont in the primary. The Republican establishment supported Lieberman as an independent over the Rebublican nominee.

They did this because Joe supported that God Awful Iraq War and nothing else mattered. It didnt matter that Joe was opposed to all things conservative, but he supported that idiocy in the Middle East. It was an eye opener and I havent given a dime the Republicans since.

Of course we all know what happened in the fall of 2006. A party that lost it's soul also lost the House and the Senate.

zombyboy| 8.2.10 @ 3:07PM

Red, Tancredo handed Hickenlooper a win and it didn't help that he joined up with a fringe party. He has zero chance of actually winning the job. He also made it utterly impossible for two weak GOP candidates to find a way to win over a governor that should have been vulnerable.

Mike, they supported Lieberman for the same reason Dems might support Crist: their own guy couldn't win and, strategically, it made sense to pull in a guy who would agree with you at least some of the time. It's not a big win, but it's still a win.

And, honestly, while Lieberman will never be confused by anyone on the right as being a conservative, he's been a decisive vote for some things that matter to a lot of us.

In fact, if the Dems are smart, they are not only throwing in the towel, they are starting to whisper sweet nothings in Crist's ear in hopes that they can pull him even closer to them--something that is clearly possible. In fact, it would be fair to say that Crist has shown a certain, ahem, flexibility in his positions recently that might encourage the left's courtship of candidate Crist.

Sometimes strategy matters more than purity.

Red Phillips| 8.2.10 @ 3:16PM

"it didn't help that he joined up with a fringe party"

Wanting to follow the Constitution is fringe? Thanks. That's nice to know.

"two weak GOP candidates"

They are weak due to their own self-inflicted wounds. They should drop out and defer to Tancredo. Tancredo would not have joined the CP if the Republican nominees hadn't imploded.

Tim*| 8.2.10 @ 6:19PM

Apparently , Lieberman & RINO Specter were useful to the Neoconservative Faction's Agenda .

zombyboy| 8.3.10 @ 5:53PM

Red, do you really think that it isn't fringe to have re-taking the Panama Canal as part of your party platform?

Tancredo's self inflicted would be associating himself with that party. Further, given that there are something like 2000 registered members of the party in Colorado, regardless of your personal opinion of the platform, yeah, that definitely classifies it as fringe.

Tancredo is acting like a jackass and while these two aren't the candidates that I would choose for the party, he chose to hand the Democrats a win that they won't have to actually earn.

Thanks, Tom.