The Spectacle Blog
Forecast: Monkey Business
It’s that time of year again when weather watchers — namely NOAA — start predicting how many storms the hurricane season will produce.
It’s that time of year again when weather watchers — namely NOAA — start predicting how many storms the hurricane season will produce. There’s been a lot of talk here at Heartland’s Fourth International Conference on Climate Change about the infancy of the science and about how much is still unknown about how the complex climate system works. Well, today my friends at the National Center for Public Policy Research announced the launch of their own hurricane forecast center led by Dr. James Hansimian, whose predictive methods they expect to at least match, if not improve upon, NOAA’s forecasting track record:
The intended point from NCPPR:
The video isn’t intended to needle NOAA for its erroneous forecasts, but to make a larger point about our current understanding of climate.
“NOAA’s forecasts have been wrong not because of a lack of dedication or competence of its forecast team, but because climate science is really still its infancy,” said Amy Ridenour, president of The National Center for Public Policy Research. “We should remember this as we consider whether to adopt economically-ruinous caps on energy. If we can’t rely on 6-month forecasts, how can rely on forecasts of what rising carbon concentrations will do to our climate 25, 50 or even 100 years out?”
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Russell Seitz| 5.18.10 @ 4:46PM
For a less simian view try :
Media Advisory: Three New Climate Change Reports to Be Released at May 19 Public Briefing
As part of its most comprehensive study of climate change to date, the National Research Council – the operating arm of the National Academy of Sciences and National Academy of Engineering – will release three new reports examining how the nation can combat the effects of climate change. One focuses on the science that supports human-induced climate change, and the others review options for limiting the magnitude of and adapting to the impacts of climate cha. The reports are part of a congressionally requested suite of studies known as America’s Climate Choices.
At a public briefing to discuss the reports, Ralph J. Cicerone, president of the National Academy of Sciences, will deliver opening remarks, and members of the panels that wrote the reports will discuss their recommendations and take questions. The briefing starts at 10 a.m. EDT Wednesday, May 19, in the Lecture Room of the National Academy of Sciences building, 2100 C St., N.W., Washington, D.C. Those who cannot attend may watch a live video webcast and submit questions at www.national-academies.org.
Reports to be released on the 19th are:
-- Advancing the Science of Climate Change
-- Limiting the Magnitude of Future Climate Change
-- Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change
Advance copies of the reports will be available to reporters only beginning at 2 p.m. EDT on Tuesday, May 18. THE REPORT IS EMBARGOED AND NOT FOR PUBLIC RELEASE BEFORE 10 A.M. EDT MAY 19. To obtain copies of the reports or to register for the briefing, contact the Office of News and Public Information; tel. 202-334-2138 or e-mail .
America’s Climate Choices also includes two additional reports that will be released later this year: Informing an Effective Response to Climate Change will examine how to best provide decision makers information on climate change, and an overarching publication will build on the previous reports to offer a scientific framework for shaping the policy choices underlying the nation’s efforts to confront climate change. More information on the America’s Climate Choices studies can be found at http://www.americasclimatechoices.org.
kuil| 11.15.10 @ 10:56AM
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