In a
speech at Princeton on Saturday, Council of Economics Chair
Christina Romer had a few words for those curious about the
current economic climate:
My first and most fundamental point is that when it comes to
the economy we are very far from normal. The unemployment
rate is currently 9.7 percent. I find it distressing that some
observers talk about unemployment remaining high for an
extended period with resignation, rather than with a sense of
urgency to find ways to address the problem. Behind this
fatalism, there seems to be a view that perhaps the high
unemployment reflects structural changes or other factors not
easily amenable to correction. High unemployment in this view
is simply "the new normal." I disagree.
Deficient Aggregate Demand Is
Key. The high unemployment that the United
States is experiencing reflects a severe shortfall of aggregate
demand.
[...]
In short, in my view the overwhelming weight of the evidence is
that the current very high -- and very disturbing -- levels of
overall and long-term unemployment are not a separate,
structural problem, but largely a cyclical one. It
reflects the fact that we are still feeling the effects of the
collapse of demand caused by the crisis. Indeed, at one
point I had tentatively titled my talk "It's Aggregate Demand,
Stupid"; but my chief of staff suggested that I find something
a tad more dignified.
I find it interesting that Romer is so eager to dispel the idea
that structural changes and not aggregate demand has caused the
current jobless recovery because I presented that
argument in the December-January issue of the
Spectator.
Arnold Kling and
Tyler Cowen are both unimpressed with Romer's thesis. For
what it's worth, I do think that there are clearly structural
forces at play in the current economy, and that these problems
are not "easily amenable to correction" in the sense that Romer
means "correction," i.e. more government spending. But I don't
think that any of the economists I interviewed or read in laying
out the structural narrative are resigned to a "new normal" of
high unemployment and slow growth.