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The Spectacle Blog
In the Southern Republican Leadership Conference’s 2012 presidential straw poll, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney beat Texas Rep. Ron Paul by just one vote for the win. Paul spoke and Romney didn’t, but supporters of both candidates worked hard for a straw poll victory. Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin and ex-House Speaker Newt Gingrich trailed Romney and Paul by about six percentage points, taking 18 percent of the vote apiece. Nobody else got more than four percent of the vote. Following on the CPAC straw poll, which Paul won while Romney came in second, a few generalizations can be made.
Straw polls are unscientific and no predictor of how a given candidate will do in a real election. But they are good tests of grassroots enthusiasm and organizational strength. Romney has the best campaign organization in place of any of the Republicans taking a serious look at the 2012 presidential election. And while Paul has always had enthusiastic grassroots supporters, his organization is getting better too: Twice at significant gatherings of Republican activists, they have been able to go head-to-head with Romney and come out looking good. These kinds of events are harder to win than Internet polls.
That said, at both of these gatherings there was still a clear disconnect between many of Paul’s supporters and the rest of the Republican Party. That might not bode well for Paul’s ability to improve on his showings in the primaries and caucuses, which would require him to move a lot more voters than it takes to win a straw poll. And Romney’s inability to come away with overwhelming victories in straw polls against candidates with little organizational strength or grassroots support suggests his frontrunner status is tenuous.
But these straw polls say even more about the other candidates pondering a run: at this extremely early stage of the race, many Republican aspirants — some of them beloved by the Beltway right — barely register among even fairly engaged members of the GOP rank and file. Others, like Palin, don’t yet have the organizational heft to match their grassroots popularity. It might be an even more wide-open race than 2008.
View all comments (46) | Leave a comment
More Blog Posts by W. James Antle, III
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Siegfried X| 4.12.10 @ 10:00AM
Meaningless. Some candidates like Barbour removed their name from the ballot. It appears that only Romney and Paul allowed their supporters to campaign because all the other candidates were following the traditional rule to wait until after the midterm, so the party could unify and win the most seats there.
Eric Damon| 4.12.10 @ 10:34AM
What is the point of campaigning to win a meaningless straw poll? Voters do not pull the lever for presidential candidates because they won some straw poll two years before the elections! Paul still is a bit too much the libertarian for some fols, especially with his naive ideas about foreign policy, and Romney cannot escape Romneycare and his 11th hour conservative conversion.
When the time comes, the GOP will have (hopefully) a decent nominee...and odds are it will be neither Romney nor Paul.
Roy| 4.12.10 @ 11:17AM
Yep, that's about what I think, too.
Eve Black| 4.12.10 @ 3:49PM
Dr. Paul is easily the most intelligent and educated candidate in the group. This effort to cast him to the margins of the Republican party is mind-numbing...are you listening to what the man is saying? He understands economics better than any candidate on either side. He is the only candidate whose answer to our current economic problems isn't to keep kicking the can down the road to the next guy in office.
Austrian School| 4.12.10 @ 11:08AM
Ron Paul is the future of the Republican Party.
JmsA| 4.12.10 @ 1:23PM
You wish.
Brian Defferding | 4.12.10 @ 7:51PM
EVERYBODY should wish that. Maybe then the Republicans can have a candidate worth voting for and American can have a thriving legit economy.
Brad Linzy| 4.14.10 @ 12:55AM
I agree. All over the country are signs of this, not least of which is his own son's success thus far in Kentucky's senate race.
The party is in denial, though. Can't blame them. They should be. It's the only last-ditch way to cling to power. Most would say, "If you can't beat 'em, join 'em." Problem is, most politicians currently holding office are too tainted with anti-constitutional stances from past voting record to stray from their course now. Now it would just be political suicide to change. Thus, they stubbornly cling to their misguided and outdated tactics while the electorate rapidly changes WITHOUT THEM.
Susie Q| 4.12.10 @ 11:48AM
Who are these phantom Republicans that keep voting for Romney and Paul in straw polls? Do we really want a repeat of 2008? Obviously, the RINO herd is gathering at the wrong watering hole.
Mike| 4.12.10 @ 12:14PM
Can't speak about Romney but RINOs voting for Paul? Everyone who votes for someone else other that Paul they are the real RINOs. Why do people call themselves Republicans? Here's why I'm a Republican, Article 4 Section 4 of the Consititution guarantees every states in this union a "Republican" form of government. It's what the Founders left us. Paul stands for the Foundation of/what made this country great our Constitution and he is considered a Kook. People turn their backs on this country and all is stands for.
Restore the Republic
Logan| 4.12.10 @ 1:20PM
There was ONLY one vote difference, and Mitt was buying tickets, normal stuffing for Romney.
Ron Paul and Romney are very different. Romney is for Enhanced Torture, even though it has ruined our nations standing in the world. Romney would only make more enemies for America in the world.
I read this piece this morning on Romney and his support for enhanced tortures an the blog below, I would have too many questions about him, to ever vote for Mitt.
There has to be someone else other than Romney.
http://mittromney2012potus.blogspot.com/
JmsA| 4.12.10 @ 1:22PM
Forget Romney the rino, nominate Paul Ryan.
John - TMF| 4.12.10 @ 1:45PM
Charlie Crist - north with money eeks out a win over the right's Linden LaRouche... in a bogus poll of those hanging around after the show.
Wonderful...
Paul Ryan, Jim DeMint, John Kaisich, Bob McDonnell, Eric Cantor, and others. The bench is deep, talented and smart, why must we saddle ourselves with a gadfly Yankee blue-state weathercock, or an ancient paleo-con isolationist with a waft of anti-Semitic fumes to his rhetoric?
The Presidential election isn't the coronation of the Knight of the Reagan Order. We have a critical election on November 2nd of this year to attend to.
Let's concentrate on that, and go after the Presidency starting in late 2011 with a fresh face, and one likely to be breathing in 2014.
r/TMF
Red Phillips | 4.12.10 @ 4:53PM
"with a waft of anti-Semitic fumes to his rhetoric"
Wow! That didn't take long. A response by the smearbund to any good news for Ron Paul is as predictable as the Sun rising in the east.
Margie| 4.12.10 @ 8:47PM
Great post as usual, TMF! I like how you think.
Red Phillips | 4.12.10 @ 11:42PM
You like how he smears.
sean1| 4.12.10 @ 1:55PM
this is FUNNY everyone wants a constitutional president. which RON PAUL only votes that way. read your constitution an u tell me an everyone else who that record to back it up!!!!!! Not dumb shit mitt.
Mike| 4.12.10 @ 2:48PM
To many they do not understand the concept of the Constitution or Declaration of Independence. People say that the Constitution was written in/for a different time, what they don't understand is the concept behind is to limit the Government from becoming the Master.
"Two enemies of the people are criminals and Government, so let us chain down the Government with the chains of the Constitution so it doesn't become the legalized version of the first" - Thomas Jefferson
Restore the Republic
Dai Alanye | 4.12.10 @ 2:55PM
The significant facts from this poll are that Romney had to buy his victory, while Ron Paul, even after subsidizing 600 votes could only pick up 438.
Neither of these jokers represents more than a fringe of true conservative activists.
As for Ron Paul being a Constitutionalist, the Constitution recognizes a right of national defense, something Paul is very iffy about.
Red Phillips | 4.12.10 @ 5:01PM
Ron Paul has never denied a right to national self-defense, and you know it. What the Constitution does not recognize is a responsibility for America to police the world. Ron Paul is the only one of the potential '12 candidates, as far as I know, who understands this.
The less we use ....| 4.12.10 @ 8:09PM
How will adding all the troops from Europe, japan, and eventually the war zones to our own borders make us have less of a national defense?
randyinrocklin| 4.12.10 @ 3:26PM
Ron Paul is a kook and should not be given the time of day. Thank you.
Red Phillips | 4.12.10 @ 4:55PM
Such an intelligent response. The anti-Paul smearbund never disappoints.
Tim*| 4.12.10 @ 5:02PM
Doctor Paul is a good man and much his Fiscal Conservatism is important to be implemented by The Republican Party.
Mitt Romney is a good man ,but his Massachusetts Health Plan is problematic .
Tim*| 4.12.10 @ 5:24PM
The United States Military should not be used primarily ,as world enforcers ,to force impose democracy around the world .
That's not their Constitutional Mission .
Using Our United States Military to enforce Our National Defense is Constitutional
This neoconservatives & paleoconservatives debate should be hashed out .
Brad Linzy| 4.14.10 @ 12:48AM
Good luck explaining that to the brain-dead neo-cons and power-grabbing statists who support the current regimes.
Most Americans have no idea what a "Declaration of War" even is - it's been so long since we've actually had one. Most would assume it's some kind of mythical thing that only people in the time of Braveheart would bother putting forth.
Tom Hurst| 4.12.10 @ 7:10PM
You can't assume Ron Paul would somehow be less effective in foreign policy because he opposes the current wars. Rather, you can rest assured that he'd follow the Constitution and wait for the war to be declared by Congress before getting the United States involved.
Dar| 4.12.10 @ 8:59PM
The straw poll is more a measure of the growing understanding and affirmation of Ron Paul's ideas than measure of a chance at nomination. That is a good thing whether he runs or not. If he doesn't it can still influence policy. If he does, it becomes a springboard into a serious campaign, again with the growth of nods towards his ideas.
CaptC| 4.12.10 @ 10:33PM
The only strike against Ron Paul is his age; if Ron Paul was 55 rather than 75, I would say that he would be the next presidential nominee. His ideas - which are borrowed in large part from Taft, Goldwater and Reagan - resonate with the young folks who understand that we need more than lip service to rein in big government. I'm always amused at folks who castigate Paul as a kook; those same accusations were hurled at real conservatives like Goldwater and Reagan.
Although I agree that it's too early to predict the GOP presidential nominee and a dark horse candidate may yet emerge, don't discount Paul's influence on the future of Republicanism. He will be a bigger factor than Bush, Cheney,or McCain on where the GOP will go in the next 10 years.
Wingnutter| 4.12.10 @ 11:07PM
Ron Paul is about as relevant as Jesse Ventura.
Brad Linzy| 4.14.10 @ 12:43AM
I'm sure that's what the GOP in Minnesota said, too, before he became their governor.
If you're going to try to margainalize a rival political movement, it usually helps not to compare them to one that actually SUCCEEDED in overthrowing party and political convention.
ZHEESH
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Brad Linzy| 4.14.10 @ 12:40AM
Whether you think straw polls are meaningless or not, you should really have a listen to what Ron Paul says in his speeches. He is clearly the most conservative choice of their field so far (at least in the old definition of the word before it became fashionable for a Republican to advocate senseless, undeclared wars and nationbuilding in regions of the globe to which few of us have been.
There is only one Constitutionalist in the early running and that's Dr. Ron Paul.
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Joseph Zrnchik| 4.14.10 @ 5:07AM
Here is why Ron Paul will end up being victorious and the police state of Republocats that has become America will lose: Ron Paul educates. When Americans know the truth, they will be set free from the domination of the political ruling class and corporate media that frames and skews political debate.
After 9/11 it took about one day for the political ruling class to confiscate American liberty. However, two years after the confiscation of many trillions of dollars of wealth by the Wall Street elite, all the Keynesian central bankers (planners) did was print out more money to be stolen again by Wall Street without placing any restriction on the banksters to prevent them from stealing the retirement funds of the middle class all over again. This failure has allowed bankers to continue to inflate/debase the currency, concentrate wealth, and to destroy wealth through the distortion of our economy by the creation of economic bubbles. How many more times can the middle class afford bail out the wealthy who profit from a bubble economy and then get bailed out when economic reality sets in and “irrational exuberance” wears off?
Our domestic police state is close to criminalizing dissent. Police falsely arrest, falsely charge, and then commit perjury, all of which is overlooked by judges and prosecutors. Our desire for justice is having the life choked out of it by sovietized federal judges and prosecutors. Perjury by police has become the dirty little secret of prosecutors and judges that is turning into the 600 pound gorilla in the room. Americans no longer trust our government, and rightly so. Police murder is excused routinely and the cover-ups are blasphemous to liberty and a constitutional republic. What we are seeing now by police has become exactly what we would expect from the Stasi, KGB, NKVD, or SAVAK. A year in prison for protest or for invoking the Constitution causes people to lose houses, jobs, and families to the glee of FEDGOV and STATEGOV minions who support crimianl government, torture, and murder. Police beat people almost to death and for the hapless individual’s harm suffered, he is compensated by government with more false charges of Resisting Arrest, Battery on Law Enforcement, Disorderly Conduct, Interfering With Law Enforcement, and Resisting Law Enforcement.
Youtube, is becoming clogged with video of police murder and brutality. Our justice system is a seeping puss wound reminiscent of a third-world junta. Our federal court system has become a replay of Soviet show trials. Government officials, the likes of people such as Hillary Clinton, are blinded by the log of hubris to their own hypocrisy that is exposed as a giant skid mark on the underwear of U.S. government for all the world to see. America has become a hypocrite in its dealing with its own citizens and the world at large.
Police lie on search warrants, arrest reports, and in court. Prosecutors back up lying police, and judges cover-up for all. Police now “Protect and Serve” only the state and have little time for upholding the Constitution or justice. Police perjury is merely described as “good police work” by these officious tax feeders. No matter how atrocious the behavior of police, police can ALWAYS count on the false testimony of their fellow komrades.
Every American should become familiar with the unjustified police execution by a police death squad of U.S. Marine Derek Hale http://www.lewrockwell.com/grigg/grigg-w10.html . They should also revisit, via Google Videos, “Waco: New Revelations” and “Waco: Rules of Engagement” Then they will realize the true horror of the crime and understand that Iraqis and Afghans suffer three Wacos everyday whereby the murder of innocents and children occurs as often as do the meals in a day. Wikileaks shows raw footage of how a few cameramen comprising a news crew, and good Samaritan rescuer with children but no weapons, are morphed into a platoon of 20 AK and RPG armed insurgents and slaughtered to the glee of radio traffic by soldiers who mock and rationalize the slaughter of small children right on the audio feed. The the government is caught in a lie saying this was due to enemy fire nearby. However, reports put the fire as 20 miles away and hours earlier. These soldiers fit the bill exactly for the next generation of police officers who will parlay their combat experince into a law enforcement careers. Whenever they decide to kill someone unjustly, they will morph simple police situations into situations where they feign fear for their lives while bullying and brutalizing citizens. In fact, all types of abuses, from federal to military, have already worked their way down to the state, county, and local levels of law enforcement and government.
Our press has become a monster arm for government/defense/corporate interests and newspapers refuse to touch issues like police abuse, murder, or even perjury, misconduct by prosecutors, or acknowledge that are courts provide no justice by seek to maintain and promote corrupt powers of the state at the expense of justice.
Our economy and infrastructure is crumbling along with any hope for the middle class. The Republicans have set up the middle class for theft by corporations through health care, and the Democrat’s alternative is to use government to steal the same wealth through government-mandated insurance. Either way, it is the middle class that becomes poorer when our system socializes losses and privatizes profits for the benefit of the kleptocracy and plutocrats.
Another issue Americans are increasingly waking up to is not whether America should support Israel, but whether America should continue to support an apartheid fascist state that slaughters unarmed civilians and engages in ethnic cleansing, has a nuclear program outside of the IAEA and U.N. inspectors, carries out global assassination and espionage programs throughout the world and against the U.S., sells our military technology to China, and then engages in military activities that get American military personnel killed who are fighting what increasingly appears to be long-term and heavily leveraged quagmires in Muslim lands that results in genocide and harms U.S. long-term interests. That does not even include the slaughter of American by Israel from their attack on the U.S.S. Liberty.
If someone would have told me years ago that America would have become engaged in Trotskyite foreign policy with the likes of people such as Wolfowitz, Perl, Feith, Bolton, and Rumsfeld, and would embrace a centrally planned monetary system whereby money is only created through debt, and debt is backed only by more pyramided debt, that our masters would destroy habeas corpus, engage in torture, use preemptive war, make nuclear first strike our policy, and destroy our liberty while carrying on a massive spy program instituted against the American people, I would have thought you insane.
Things that can’t go on forever usually don’t. This includes America borrowing to fund its out-of-control federal government. Would Americans have ever thought their economy would be service based with the means of production being exported to our economic and political rivals? Would Americans have ever thought that we would be so locked in debt and spending that we would have borrow money from China to the point that we are coming close to destroying our own monetary unit? Would Americans have ever believed the Democratic and Republican parties would be bringing us to the point of economic ruin through unsustainable government growth and spending whereby we need to borrow tens of billions of dollars just to finance the interest on our national debt? Ron Paul mentions the absurdity of borrowing from our enemies to “support democracy” in Iraq while at the same time supporting a coup and then a military dictator right next door in Pakistan.
America’s two political parties should lose the right to exist. American government has completely lost any remaining shreds of legitimacy and exists only through the legitimacy conferred upon raw power. Americans, through their sowing of ignorance and apathy are finally reaping the reward of having blindly trusted government.
But here you have it, folks, the convergence of morons from both the Democratic and Republican parties into the fascist police state whereby America has become New Rome. Is Ron Paul the only one left with any sense?
The Dangler| 4.14.10 @ 9:40AM
You're either for Ron Paul and a strict adherence to the Constitution and limited government or you're the enemy. It's so painfully obvious that the establishment republicans are woefully uninformed when it comes to the definition of what it means to be a conservative in that they would even consider Romney (architect for ObamaCare) and flip flopping populist liberal as a viable choice to lead the republican party.
John| 4.14.10 @ 6:45PM
America is either a Constitutional Republic or it isn't. I am sad to say we are no longer a free nation. Ron Paul is the only candidate who will work to restore our rights and freedoms. He is the only candidate I will vote for in 2012.