The 11th Congressional District of Illinois is likely to be among
the closest House races this fall. District 11 has
historically gone Republican. President George W. Bush carried in
2000 and 2004, and Congressman Jerry Weller held the seat from
1995-2009. Democrat Deborah Halvorson currently controls the
seat. Tim Baldermann had won the Republican nomination in 2008,
but then
dropped out shortly after winning. Marty Ozina then received
the nomination, and was defeated 59-34 in the general election.
On the same day, Obama carried by eight percentage points. The
northeast corner of the district touches up on some southwest
Chicago suburbs in Will County, while the western part stretches
along the more rural Interstate 80, and a small piece goes all
the way down south to Bloomington, Illinois.
This race features Republican nominee and 32-year-old Air Force
Captain Adam Kinzinger against the Democrat incumbent. Kinzinger
got his start in politics at age 20, serving on McClean County
board while still in college at Illinois State. The candidate
told TAS on Wednesday that he joined the Air Force
in October, 2001, convinced of his duty to serve after the 9/11
attacks.
Kinzinger is running on “repealing and re-starting” healthcare
reform, opposed to cap-and-trade, and is pledging not to raise
taxes while in Congress. He supported many of the Republican
healthcare talking points such as more serious tort reform and
allowing people to purchase across state-line insurance, but did
concede that he supports some parts of Obamacare such as coverage
for patients with pre-existing conditions and coverage for young
people under their parents’ plans. While Kinzinger is currently
holding townhalls that center on repeal of the plan, he admits
that actual repeal would be difficult.
Kinzinger was quick to draw analogies to the military while
dwelling on the costs of the healthcare plan. “I’m a military
pilot, I’ve seen government programs when it comes to defense
having an initial cost estimate and then down the road costing
two or three times what they said,” Kinzinger explained. “The
F-35s now cost twice what was estimated … That’s going to
happen with this program.” When discussing military issues,
Kinzinger confirmed that he supported the Afghanistan surge, and
that he would like to keep Don’t Ask Don’t Tell.
As November approaches, it is likely that jobs and deficits will
dominate the discussion. But politically, Kinzinger may still
enjoy extra support due to the healthcare bill when considering
the district’s relatively high rate of healthcare coverage.
According to
Washington Post, District 11 has the 5th lowest uninsured
rate in Illinois out of 19 districts, with 11.1 percent
uninsured. The four districts with the lower rates are all
represented by Republicans. Voters who are annoyed at Medicare
changes, tax increases, and believe that the Congress has
neglected job creation might come out heavily for Kinzinger.
On the other hand, Obama might want to campaign heavily in this
district, specifically in the college town of Bloomington and
some blue collar parts of Will County. If he comes to be
perceived as triumphant after passing healthcare, and the
recession eases, he might be able to help hold this seat for the
Democrats. As I have reported on other
suburban and
more rural Illinois Districts, there quite a few seats in
play in this state. Kinzinger and Halvorson are likely to fight
this one down to the wire.
