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The Spectacle Blog
Liberal bloggers are euphoric over USA Today's claim of a "notable turnaround" in public opinion of ObamaCare, an illusion that can be explained in two words: Random adults.
Rather than surveying likely voters, Gallup polled an unweighted sample of Americans 18 and older -- which, as experienced consumers of polling data know quite well, invariably skews results to the left, in comparison to actual voters. (The most recent Rassmussen survey of likely voters shows 54% opposed to ObamaCare.)
Liberals who exult over USA Today's "turnaround" spin are only slightly more foolish than conservatives who despair. Even the normally pessimistic Allahpundit of Hot Air resists Gallup-induced gloom:
That's quite a swing among indies from two days ago to Gallup today. Color me skeptical too that the number of Republicans who support the bill - 14 percent, allegedly - now exceeds the number of Democrats who oppose it. . . . The biggest problem . . . is the nationwide sample: It's fine as a general barometer of public sentiment, but of course the left will want you to believe that this vindicates their theory O-Care is a political winner in November. Problem is, that doesn't depend on national polling - it depends on swing districts, and at last check those districts were looking grim.
Repeat after me: A congressional mid-term is not a presidential election.
Political forecasting is always a tricky business, and pollsters have long lamented the tendency of some journalists to hype the latest poll numbers as forecasting future developments. Public opinion is a moving target, a single poll is merely a snapshot of opinion at a given time, and results can be distorted by any number of factors.
I'll have more on this general subject on The American Spectator main page Wednesday morning.
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http://spectator.org/blog/2010/03/23/poll-induced-dysphoria-syndrom
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Bob| 3.23.10 @ 8:38PM
RSM, you are an idiot. The Rasmussen poll was before the passage and the Gallup poll was after. The two polling outfits tracked pretty closely prior to this and you will see the Rasmussen poll will also show an increase if the same question is asked. Furthermore, Obama's approval rating also bumped up to 51%.
There is no question that Republicans will pick up seats in November, but that always happens in the election after a President is chosen. It also happened to Reagan (who, by the way, had a 35% approval rating in 1983 -- far lower than Obama's).
You must live in Fantasyland -- or perhaps you were home schooled like your children so your training in math and science was stunted.
code| 3.24.10 @ 1:40AM
Sir, if you wish to question the writer's presumption or opinion or even his mathematical and science training, that is your prerogative, but DO NOT insult home schoolers.
Juliet| 3.24.10 @ 2:25AM
Bob's a nasty old troll, code--pay the clueless atheist no mind.
Home schoolers are the best!
Tim| 3.24.10 @ 9:06AM
Bob, according to the latest Rasmussen Poll of Tims who post at AMSPEC:
54% Approve of your pedantic monologues as an insomnia cure.
41% Disapprove, citing unpleasant side effects of reading you, such as nausea, vomitng and explosive decompression.
Vadskye| 3.23.10 @ 9:29PM
All I ask is that you please keep us updated on the polling data. I want to see Rasmussen's take now that this is passed.
Robert Stacy McCain| 3.23.10 @ 10:20PM
Bob, you're a troll, and you certainly don't know any more about polling than I do.
SoCon| 3.23.10 @ 10:43PM
Just remember, RSM; Bob the 'RINO' who voted for Obama is NOT a troll. In fact, he claims that he's more fiscally conservative than most of us here even though he supports hugely expensive social programs.
Bob, polling random adults is a very poor indicator of public opinion, especially when democrats are over-polled--any idiot knows that.
Rasmussen polls likely voters and his results are much more accurate.
Bonehead.
Becky| 3.24.10 @ 12:00AM
Why do people think it necessary to call someone they disagree with an idiot? Wouldn't the force of their argument stand on its merit without the added effect of insult?
Juliet| 3.24.10 @ 1:15AM
Bob is a troll-- he doesn't blog here to argue in good faith; he comes here to insult and harass.
I agree with SoCon; Bob is a bonehead.
Sapwolf| 3.24.10 @ 1:06AM
It's cool Becky. It's just guy talk. The argument is enough, but the put down is just ceremony.
Don't even try to understand it.
JmsA| 3.24.10 @ 1:13AM
I believe this liberal polling not to be anything more than an outlier, reasonably to be expected after all of the hoopla--if not actually an exercise in whistling past the graveyard. That said, someone (a pseudo democrat) who works in one of the local L.A., CA high schools, heavily populated by teacher union members, i.e., democrats, informed me there was no exultation whatsoever Monday, or even when Obamacare was being signed into law.
Juliet| 3.24.10 @ 1:17AM
Why not? I thought the unions wanted ObamaScare--for the little people, of course.
Nick| 3.24.10 @ 9:59AM
Pay no attention to 3/5 Bob's comments, folks.
For those who don't know, he is known as 3/5 Bob, because until last June, he thought that blacks had 3/5 of a vote, under the original U.S. Constitution.
He also doesn't know the scientific fact of when human biological life begins because he is unsure of when "ensoulment" happens.
He also claimed he translated the Bible from the original Aramaic when he was a teenager.
He is a pseudo-intellectual and an anti-Christian bigot.
Don't waste your time arguing with him.
Plus, as I see, he is using my "living in Fantasyland" line. Have you no shame, 3/5 Bob?
Martin j smith| 3.24.10 @ 10:48AM
Bob: Have a nice day
Code: Bob is a troll and shows the disdain that his ilk have for those who disagree
regarding that Poll: Gallop is pro Dmocrat, USA today is well MSM pro Democrat.
Rasmussen the one who called the 2008 election accurately is much closer to the truth.
So when you have Gallop ( or any other pro-Democrat or MSM involved--ignore,ignore,ignore.