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The details of the Congressional Budget Office estimates are starting to leak. While we don't have the full numbers yet, Talking Points Memo reports, citing a Democratic source, that the price tag will be $940 billion from 2010 through 2019 -- with $130 billion in deficit reduction during that period.

Since we don't have the actual score yet, we don't know which gimmicks Democrats employed to get the number they wanted. As we know, the CBO scores kept getting delayed so that Democrats could tweak the bill to meet their targets. We can only assume that they employed many of the same tactics as in earlier versions of the legislation, such as delaying the major spending provisions until 2014, thus disguising the true 10 year cost once fully implemented.

From a policy perspective, the big question is where all the new money came from. Based on what we know from prior CBO data, delaying the "Cadillac Tax" until 2018 -- as President Obama proposed -- would represent a revenue loss of $85 billion (see chart on page 9 of this PDF). If the bill also costs $65 billion more than the Senate version and deficit reduction is roughly constant, it means that Democrats needed to find $150 billion from somewhere. What combination of spending cuts, or more likely, tax increases, did they use to get there?

View all comments (45) | Leave a comment

Eric Cartman| 3.18.10 @ 10:39AM

I went to McDonald's yesterday to buy 10 double cheeseburgers for a little party my daughter on Spring break was having with her friends. I decided to buy 30,000,010 since it was cheaper - I got the Obama price break! Man, this new math is great!

sre| 3.18.10 @ 10:54AM

There is only one way they can show deficit reduction with this bill: Taxes.

The devil is in the details. Let's see the bill.

ctmom| 3.18.10 @ 10:56AM

Lets see the CBO report! Right now all that has been released is Dem SAYING the report is good. I'll believe it when I see it.

Yes We Can!| 3.18.10 @ 11:17AM

You sound like neophyte reich-winger Paul Ryan who is complaining that the confidentiality of the non-partisan CBO is being compromised by this leak.

So one minute you want transparency, and the next you don't? You fascists are all the same! Is it because Obama is black? Blood for oil, Bush's fault, etc. etc.!

No We Can't| 3.18.10 @ 11:49AM

You forgot "Bush lied, people died. Katrina, Katrina, Katrina!"

ann| 3.18.10 @ 11:57AM

poor misguided souls. Bush is no longer president. dabama has fallen lower and faster than anyother president in history. He is arrogant and immature. There is no greater danger in america than the deification of intelligence without any sense of moral responsibility. That defines dabama. The american people are not stupid. You can continue to blame Bush, but the
obama polls show the american people believe otherwise.

No We Can't| 3.18.10 @ 12:58PM

Um, "Sarcasm, sarcasm, sarcasm."

No We Can't| 3.18.10 @ 11:49AM

You forgot "Bush lied, people died. Katrina, Katrina, Katrina!"

Nick| 3.18.10 @ 12:15PM

And, "Halliburton, Halliburton, Halliburton!"

No We Can't| 3.18.10 @ 12:29PM

Oh, oh oh, I got one! "AWOL, AWOL, AWOL!"

Nick| 3.18.10 @ 12:40PM

Don't forget, "Pervert, Groper, Rapist!"

Oh, sorry, wrong president!

No We Can't| 3.18.10 @ 1:02PM

And "Troopergate, Whitewater, human humidor." Um, may as well pile on!

SoCon| 3.18.10 @ 4:47PM

Don't forget my 'favorite'--BUSHITLER!!
Creepy liberals.

Don't you just love those 'tolerant' liberals?

Ed| 3.18.10 @ 12:42PM

ctmom,
I won't even believe it when I see it!

mt| 3.18.10 @ 11:03AM

how is it they are voting on the senate bill if they are changing the funding scheme? Or is this part of the "fix:"?

sre| 3.18.10 @ 11:09AM

And what if 50 Senators don't like the revised funding scheme "fix?"

Not Likely| 3.18.10 @ 11:42AM

Then it fails. That won't happen though, the fix is designed to get votes.

sre| 3.18.10 @ 11:49AM

But Heny says that upon a vote on Sunday, the bill will be flown to Indonesia to be signed by Obama to be made the law of the land. So when does the Senate act on the fix that creates this wonderful deficit reduction?

Ken (Old Texican)| 3.18.10 @ 11:44AM

...A farcical number Mr. Klein.

Nick| 3.18.10 @ 12:17PM

These are Steny Hoyer's phony, lying numbers! Not the CBO's.

Don't believe the lying democrat party!

Philip| 3.18.10 @ 12:19PM

According to the Washington Post today, the original Senate bill would cost $875B.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/.....id=topnews

That's the Senate bill that Nancy has agreed "nobody wants to vote for." That's the root of the House' attention. How can the Dems pass (or deem-and-pass) the original Senate bill ($875B), then be happy about proposed changes under reconciliation ($940B), if the total doesn't come in at $874B or less? I don't understand the dynamics of how this fits with the idea that reconciliation must avoid "policy changes" while delivering budget reductions of at least $1B. If the House has changed the policies in the Senate bill, they cannot do reconciliation, and would be presenting a different bill for consideration. Is attaching the Student Loan bill just a way to hide all the changes in the policy, because the numbers won't add up?

I believe this is all just fluff to keep the headlines focused off the fact that they don't have the votes; if they had the votes, this wouldn't matter - they would call for the vote.

Ed| 3.18.10 @ 12:38PM

We do not need this deficit increasing health care bill to begin reducing fraud and waste from medicare and medicaid. If politicians are so concerned about the multi- billions lost every year in medicare fraud what took them so long to suggest doing something about it? As soon as this health care bill is passed, it will be back to business as usual.
Exactly the same as the last time they passed amnesty in 1986.
"We will increase border security to prevent further illegal immigration. Make the illegals receiving amnesty get to the back of the bus. E-verify mandatory! Learn English...mandatory. Blagh, Blagh, and more Blagh!"
As soon as they get what they want; all promises are out the window.

A. Jurgensen| 3.18.10 @ 2:14PM

Of course the Frightwing won't believe the CBO report. It wouldn't believe anything coming from the Dems.

Big surprise!

Janie| 3.18.10 @ 4:50PM

Why would any sane person believe anything spewing from Demoncrats' mouths?

How do you know when a liberal is lying?
His lips are moving.

Nick| 3.18.10 @ 5:00PM

How do you know when Bubba the pervert is lying?

See if he's breathing.

Janie| 3.18.10 @ 5:22PM

Heavy breathing.

Ken (Old Texican)| 3.18.10 @ 2:35PM

A Jurgensen, yes!

I am very frightened. I am part of the "frightwing".

I do not want to die in political prison. I am frightened for my life. I am going to resist these communists, (pardon the shorthand), anyway.
So, yes I am frightened.

November, folks....November......or else.

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