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CBO: 98% of Spending in HC Bill Comes in Last 6 Yrs

By on 3.18.10 @ 12:03PM

So the Congressional Budget Office's numbers are out. Sort of. While we now have an official document from the CBO evaluating the Democratic health care proposals, the analysis opens with this following cautionary note:

Although CBO completed a preliminary review of legislative language prior to its release, the agency has not thoroughly examined the reconciliation proposal to verify its consistency with the previous draft. This estimate is therefore preliminary, pending a review of the language of the reconciliation proposal, as well as further review and refinement of the budgetary projections.

What basically happened is that Democrats were rushing to get out the CBO scores so that they could have some sort of claim to have released them 72 hours prior to a vote, which they want to hold on Sunday. But we won't have 72 hours to look at the actual final scores.

An initial reading of the report suggests that Democrats employed similar accounting gimmicks as in previous iterations of the health care bill, while making up a shortfall with more cuts to Medicare Advantage, siphoning money from the Student loan bill, and raising taxes further. While I'll go into further detail later once I've had a chance to look at all of the moving parts, and analyze the actual bill itself, one thing worth highlighting is that as expected, Democrats have maintained the strategy of delaying the major spending provisions until 2014 to create the appearance that the bill is cheaper over the CBO's ten year budget window, from 2010 through 2019. In this version, the bill spends $17 billion in the first four years, while the remaining $923 billion, or 98 percent, is spent in the next six years. I've illustrated this tactic in the chart below. One thing to note is that the oft-quoted $940 billion number only pertains to the cost of expanding coverage -- which is the bulk of spending in the bill -- but it does not include all other costs, such as the providing more Medicare prescription drug subsidies, which costs about $38 billion. I've used the $940 billion figure in the chart below, but have specified that it's only the cost of the coverage provisions.

View all comments (50) | Leave a comment

Tim| 3.18.10 @ 1:06PM

The Hockey Stick graph lives!

Ho Shmo| 3.18.10 @ 11:40PM

How much is this REALLY compared to how much is spent right now in the "private" system?

People act like this is new spending... it's not. It's just spent a different way. No one... and I mean NO ONE really compares the numbers that matter. Not fox, not nbc or abc or any of the other "left wing"...

So stop filling our info highways with crap that doesn't say crap...

Tax Payer| 3.19.10 @ 3:32PM

Even if the cost is the same "Private" vs "Government" there is a very large difference.

Under the private system, I DECIDE whether I want to spend money on health care. If I choose not to, I get sick, loose my house, etc.

Under the "GOVERNMENT" system, they took more TAX MONEY FROM ME, and choose to pay someone elses health care bill.

Baerjamin| 6.1.10 @ 2:22PM

@ Tax Payer That's myopic. You are, as a tax payer, paying in ANY case.

If someone -- some estimates are up to 30% of people -- don't have insurance and they go to the hospital and they get treated YOU pay for it anyway! The idea is to take the money you're already spending via taxes and apportion it in a way that's far more cost effective and proactive. Today people wait to deal with medical issues and often show up at the Emergency Room (the most expensive way to deal with any medical issues). Instead let's cover those who don't have the means to pay for health insurance and provide prophylactic education and testing and cut down dramatically on the expense. In either case you are going to pay. In either case you can still decide how to best deal with your own insurance.

Pingback| 3.18.10 @ 2:16PM

Picking Apart New CBO Numbers – Blog Watch links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:

…especially when the whip count is still volatile and the clock is ticking. But they followed the rules and the package could earn endorsements from some wavering House Democrats today.” The American Spectator’s Philip Klein: “Democrats have maintained the strategy of delaying the major spending provisions until 2014 to create the appearance that the bill is cheaper over the CBO’s ten year…

Pingback| 3.18.10 @ 2:27PM

CBO Performs Voodoo Math and Other Undead Zombie Health Care Updates; UPDATE: ‘Does links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:

…. . Yet the Democrats have transformed these highly uncertain projections into a seemingly precise and reliable dollar figure: $1.2 trillion in deficit reduction during the second decade. Philip Klein at The American Spectator : What basically happened is that Democrats were rushing to get out the CBO scores so that they could have some sort of claim to have released them 72 hours prior to a vote, which they…

Pingback| 3.18.10 @ 3:08PM

The ObamaCare Lay Away Plan | The Lonely Conservative links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:

…Is this how lambs feel while being led to the slaughter house? Keep in mind – they still don’t have the votes. Call today! 877-762-8762 or 202-224-3121 or 202-225-3121 Code Red! Update: The American Spectator provides this graph which puts the shady CBO numbers in perspective. Stacy McCain says it’s like a fat chick wearing a black skirt because she thinks it makes her butt look skinnier. I…

Pingback| 3.18.10 @ 4:37PM

The St. Angilbert Press » The REAL Hockey Stick Graph! links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:

…button Newsvine button Youtube button Home About St. Angilbert Contact Us Site Rules The REAL Hockey Stick Graph! March 18th, 2010 by Saint Angilbert Robert Stacy McCain displays a graphic from Phil Klein at AmSpec concerning the long-term projected costs of the health care reform being championed by Barack Obama, Nancy Peolsi, et. al. And look what they found: Up, up, and aaaaawaaaayyyyyyyyy! It’s…

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Pingback| 3.19.10 @ 8:22AM

Fausta’s Blog » Blog Archive » The CBO’s Obamacare estimate links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:

Radio show. « Michael Fumento in today’s podcast The CBO’s Obamacare estimate While the Dems would like you to believe that Obamacare will save money, the fact is that 98% of Spending in HC Bill Comes in Last 6 Yrs (h/t Matthew Continetti ), which in graphic form looks like this: That’s what uploading revenues up front and costs at the back end of 10 years – and the first year is…

Pingback| 3.19.10 @ 11:33AM

CBO scoring of health care bill. : The American MAXIM links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:

…is no actual bill to score, and the offsetting of costs in the first decade by delaying program starts as Philip Klein of the American Spectator observes. The American Spectator | CBO: 98% of Spending in HC Bill Comes in Last 6 Yrs While I’ll go into further detail later once I’ve had a chance to look at all of the moving parts, and analyze the actual bill itself, one thing worth highlighting is…

Pingback| 3.19.10 @ 12:19PM

Why Obamacare Would Fail | America Watches Obama links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:

…bill, which was found to reduce the deficit by $138 billion over 10 years. They relied on some of the same accounting gimmicks that they employed in previous estimates as well as some new ones. Democrats delayed most of the major spending provisions until 2014 to make the bill appear cheaper over the CBO’s 10 year budget window; claimed as revenue premiums from a new long-term insurance program, even though that…

Pingback| 3.19.10 @ 12:20PM

Democrats in the Deathmobile | America Watches Obama links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:

…speed!” It would all be comical were it not for the possibility that this slapstick legislative fraternity prank — perpetrated by the “ Slaughter Solution ” with Enron-like accounting gimmicks from the Congressional Budget Office – might yet become law. How did we arrive at this juncture? Health care was endlessly debated by Obama and the other Democratic presidential candidates…

Pingback| 3.19.10 @ 1:26PM

Reconciliation, Deem-and-Pass, the CBO, and Obamacare Smackdown « The Republican Here links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:

…in the cost of the bill (which they had done in the past) 5. Claiming that additional tax money raised will go to pay for spending in the bill when it must be used for other programs Phillip Klein at the American Spectator also looks at the CBO gimmicks, and points out that part of the trick the Democrats are using is to implement the bulk of the spending past the end of the CBO’s 10-year window: An…

Pingback| 3.19.10 @ 7:31PM

Checking the Math on Health Care - Opinionator Blog - NYTimes.com links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:

…C.B.O., it would probably add to the deficit in the long term.” “As expected, Democrats have maintained the strategy of delaying the major spending provisions until 2014 to create the appearance that the bill is cheaper over the C.B.O.’s ten year budget window, from 2010 through 2019,” adds Philip Klein of the American Spectator. “The bill spends $17 billion in the first four…

Pingback| 3.20.10 @ 3:41PM

CBO Report: 98% of Spending in HC Bill Comes in Last 6 Yrs « www.offmyfrontporch.com links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:

…prescription drug subsidies, which costs about $38 billion. I’ve used the $940 billion figure in the chart below, but have specified that it’s only the cost of the coverage provisions. Spectator.org Categories: General, Politics Tags: Harry Reid, health care, jimmy Naifeh, Kent Conrad, Lawrence O'Donnell, Louise Slaughter, Mark Levin, Messa, Michele Bachmann, Milton R Wolf, Nancy Pelosi, Obama,…

Pingback| 3.21.10 @ 11:53AM

Democrats in the Deathmobile « Thoughts Of A Conservative Christian links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:

…speed!” It would all be comical were it not for the possibility that this slapstick legislative fraternity prank — perpetrated by the “ Slaughter Solution ” with Enron-like accounting gimmicks from the Congressional Budget Office — might yet become law. How did we arrive at this juncture? Health care was endlessly debated by Obama and the other Democratic presidential candidates…

Pingback| 3.22.10 @ 2:52PM

The Obamacare Abomination: Pricetag « The Republican Heretic links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:

…mandate in the cost of the bill (which they had done in the past) 5. Claiming that additional tax money raised will go to pay for spending in the bill when it must be used for other programs Philip Klein at American Spectator picked up where Glass left off, and brought up the trick of implementing most of the spending past the CBO’s 10-year window: Democrats have maintained the strategy of delaying the…

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Pingback| 3.26.10 @ 12:11PM

Healthcare(less) « links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:

…look good in the short term with no good long-term plan. “The bill spends $17 billion in the first four years, while the remaining $923 billion, or 98 percent, is spent in the next six years,” says Philip Klein of the American Spectator. How do we plan to pay for this? Taxes that many economist doubt Congress will ever even get around to passing. I am sure we have all heard the Democrats claim over and over…

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Pingback| 4.5.10 @ 1:31PM

Picking Apart New CBO Numbers | Go HealthReform links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:

…especially when the whip count is still volatile and the clock is ticking. But they followed the rules and the package could earn endorsements from some wavering House Democrats today.” The American Spectator’s Philip Klein: “Democrats have maintained the strategy of delaying the major spending provisions until 2014 to create the appearance that the bill is cheaper over the CBO’s ten year…

Pingback| 4.7.10 @ 8:35PM

Picking Apart New CBO Numbers | Kaiser Permanente Health Insurance Plan Finder links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:

…especially when the whip count is still volatile and the clock is ticking. But they followed the rules and the package could earn endorsements from some wavering House Democrats today.” The American Spectator’s Philip Klein: “Democrats have maintained the strategy of delaying the major spending provisions until 2014 to create the appearance that the bill is cheaper over the CBO’s ten year…

ella| 4.26.10 @ 12:54PM

Update: Phil Klein explains more about what’s going on: under the reconciliation rules in last year’s budget, any reconciliation bill would… " - i think they need it. internet fax

Krrish| 5.4.10 @ 2:08PM

It's quite strange that spending 98% of health care bill in the next six years but what's the strategy of Democrats in it, I couldn't understand.Whatever may be the reason but it's not good to accumulating so much only in the last phase.
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98% is very high in the past 6 years
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