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Thoughts on Bayh

By W. James Antle, III on 2.15.10 @ 3:48PM

Evan Bayh's retirement does strike a huge blow to Democratic hopes of retaining that Indiana Senate seat this fall. But Bayh's announcement was timed to minimize the damage for Democrats. Bayh waited until the day before signatures are due to qualify for the state primary ballots. That means the state Democratic party bosses will get to pick their own candidate rather than take the chance that a liberal primary electorate will nominate a Democrat too far to the left to win. And it also probably freezes the Republican field in place, preventing Mike Pence or Mitch Daniels from taking another look.

That may not be enough to keep Republicans from taking the seat. Evan Bayh was the Democrats' strongest candidate by far and his decision to retire suggests -- protestations to the contrary aside -- that even he wasn't sure he could keep the seat. While a Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll showed Bayh in good shape, it assumed a 2008-like electorate. An earlier Rasmussen poll making different assumptions showed Bayh losing to Pence and barely ahead of John Hostettler. Nevertheless, Bayh did try to make the best of a bad situation for Democrats.

View all comments (4) | Leave a comment

Kate| 2.15.10 @ 6:25PM

You're the ONLY pundit I've read who thinks Bayh did the Dems a favor. All the others (Ed Morrissey, Rick Moran, etc) disagree and feel it will only hurt the Dems. Guess we'll see who's right.

ggoblue| 2.15.10 @ 7:34PM

as long as he was leaving doing it 'last minute' was a favor.

a] they get to hand pick their candidate and bypass them pesky voters

b] let the bidding begin on the nomination.....

W. James Antle III| 2.16.10 @ 4:30PM

I don't think Bayh did the Democrats a favor by leaving -- his departure makes it much more likely that they'll lose that Senate seat. But the way he left at the last minute does help them contain the damage.

Had Bayh announced this earlier, the Democrats might have gotten stuck with a more liberal nominee and a stronger Republican might have entered the race.

Bunkerville| 2.16.10 @ 12:16PM

Once I heard that Rahm was involved, something simple would become obtuse. If d’Ippolito manages to get enough signatures together in time. and gets the Dem nod, Rahm may be too clever by twice. Heard she was 1000 short.

http://bunkerville.wordpress.c.....nate-race/